New York Rangers vs Ottawa Senators Final — October 24, 2026
NYRStarting goaliesOTT
NYROffense2026-27 regular season to dateOTTNYRDefenseOTTNYRTeamOTTNYR5-on-5OTTNYRSpecial teamsOTTNYRRecent formOTTNYRHome and roadseason to dateOTTInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYRRest & travelOTTNYRKey injuriesOTTAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 24, 10:10 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Rangers (7-4-1) visited the Senators (7-4-0) on Saturday, October 24 at 7:08 PM ET.
The Rangers score 3.08 goals per game (15th of 32) and allow 2.42 (4th). The Senators score 2.82 goals per game (20th of 32) and allow 2.73 (6th). The Rangers earn 62.5% of available standings points (11th) and the Senators 63.6% (8th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Rangers 48.4% (20th), Senators 48.1% (22nd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Rangers 46.2% (26th), Senators 47.3% (23rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Rangers 59.1% (9th), Senators 44.1% (21st).
The total closed at 6.5, up from 5.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Rangers +105, Senators -125) prices the Rangers at 47% and the Senators at 53%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 7
Ottawa Senators won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Ottawa Senators -1.5): Ottawa Senators covered.
- Combined score 11 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Ottawa Senators closed at -125 on the moneyline (a 53% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Ottawa Senators 7
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Ottawa Senators.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Rangers 47%, Ottawa Senators 53%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 5:34 — Ottawa Senators goal (0-1)Ottawa Senators 53% → 68% (+15 pts)
- 1st 6:40 — Ottawa Senators goal (0-2)Ottawa Senators 68% → 81% (+13 pts)
- 2nd 19:34 — New York Rangers goal (3-4)New York Rangers 9% → 24% (+15 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, New York Rangers won 62% of G&W replays (Ottawa Senators 38%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured New York Rangers. Here is where that came from.
| Rangers | Goals | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| 2.4 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.1 |
| 0.7 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.7 |
| 0.5 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 3.6 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.8 |
| 0.2 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.8 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.1 |
| +0.2 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +2.2 |
| -2.2 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Dylan Garand 17/22 · Jonas Johansson 24/28 | -0.2 |
| 0 | Empty-net goals | 2 |
How the margin was built, from Ottawa Senators's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Ottawa Senators closed as the market favourite at 53% and won.
The line moved toward Ottawa Senators before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Rangers +1.5 (-225)
Rangers +1.5 (-250)
Senators -116 52%
Senators -125 53%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Rangers won 11 and the Senators 10.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Senators 2, Rangers 1 Senators won | Senators -191 favorite won | 6 under |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Senators 8, Rangers 4 Senators won | Senators -118 favorite won | 6 over |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Rangers 4, Senators 2 Rangers won | Senators -129 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Rangers 3, Senators 4 OT Senators won | Senators -128 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Senators 0, Rangers 5 Rangers won | Rangers -130 favorite won | 5.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
New York Rangers
- New York Rangers team stats
- Los Angeles Kings 6, New York Rangers 3 (Oct 26)
- New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (Oct 22)
- Anaheim Ducks 2, New York Rangers 5 (Oct 19)
Ottawa Senators
More NHL games on October 24, 2026
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- San Jose Sharks 4, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 24)
- Vegas Golden Knights 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (Oct 24)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 24)
- Nashville Predators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (Oct 24)
- Carolina Hurricanes 4, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 24)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Washington Capitals 4 (Oct 24)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (Oct 24)
- Detroit Red Wings 1, Calgary Flames 4 (Oct 24)
- Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 1 (Oct 24)
Dig deeper
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