San Jose Sharks vs Ottawa Senators Final — October 22, 2026
SJStarting goaliesOTT
SJOffense2026-27 regular season to dateOTTSJDefenseOTTSJTeamOTTSJ5-on-5OTTSJSpecial teamsOTTSJRecent formOTTSJHome and roadseason to dateOTTInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SJRest & travelOTTSJKey injuriesOTTAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 22, 3:41 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Sharks (5-4-1) visited the Senators (7-3-0) on Thursday, October 22 at 7:10 PM ET.
The Sharks score 2.70 goals per game (24th of 32) and allow 3.50 (24th). The Senators score 2.90 goals per game (20th of 32) and allow 2.40 (5th). The Sharks earn 55.0% of available standings points (19th) and the Senators 70.0% (6th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Sharks 42.9% (29th), Senators 45.9% (26th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Sharks 47.1% (23rd), Senators 45.1% (27th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Sharks 23.3% (32nd), Senators 42.9% (22nd).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Sharks +110, Senators -134) prices the Sharks at 45% and the Senators at 55%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2
San Jose Sharks won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Ottawa Senators -1.5): San Jose Sharks covered.
- Combined score 8 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- San Jose Sharks closed at +110 on the moneyline (a 45% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Ottawa Senators 2
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (San Jose Sharks 45%, Ottawa Senators 55%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 11:04 — San Jose Sharks goal (1-1)San Jose Sharks 30% → 46% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 9:13 — San Jose Sharks goal (2-1)San Jose Sharks 48% → 69% (+22 pts)
- 2nd 12:00 — San Jose Sharks goal (3-1)San Jose Sharks 67% → 84% (+17 pts)
San Jose Sharks won after falling as low as 30% (1st 11:04).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Ottawa Senators won 63% of G&W replays (San Jose Sharks 37%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Ottawa Senators. Here is where that came from.
| Sharks | Goals | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| 2.7 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 3.5 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.8 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 3.2 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.3 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.7 |
| 0.4 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.7 |
| +0.8 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -3.0 |
| +3.0 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Yaroslav Askarov 41/43 · Samuel Ersson 22/26 | -0.8 |
| 2 | Empty-net goals | 0 |
How the margin was built, from San Jose Sharks's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Ottawa Senators closed as the market favourite at 55% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Sharks +1.5 (-225)
Sharks +1.5 (-227)
Senators -130 54%
Senators -134 55%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Sharks won 5 and the Senators 9.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Sharks 4, Senators 7 Senators won | Senators -205 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Senators 3, Sharks 2 Senators won | Senators -166 favorite won | 5.5 under |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Sharks 3, Senators 5 Senators won | Senators -310 favorite won | 6 over |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Senators 4, Sharks 3 Senators won | Senators -238 favorite won | 6 over |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Senators 1, Sharks 2 Sharks won | Senators -227 underdog won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
San Jose Sharks
- San Jose Sharks team stats
- Buffalo Sabres 2, San Jose Sharks 0 (Oct 27)
- San Jose Sharks 4, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 24)
- San Jose Sharks 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (Oct 20)
Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators team stats
- Ottawa Senators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (Oct 27)
- New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 7 (Oct 24)
- Florida Panthers 1, Ottawa Senators 5 (Oct 21)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 22, 2026
- Nashville Predators 0, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 22)
- Anaheim Ducks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 22)
- Florida Panthers 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (Oct 22)
- New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (Oct 22)
- Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 2 (Oct 22)
- Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 22)
- Vegas Golden Knights 2, St Louis Blues 6 (Oct 22)
- Minnesota Wild 1, Calgary Flames 2 (Oct 22)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Edmonton Oilers 6 (Oct 22)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Seattle Kraken 5 (Oct 22)
- Detroit Red Wings 5, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 22)
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