Home › Game previews › NHL › October 2026 › Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild

NHL · October 12, 2026

Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild Final — October 12, 2026

Vegas Golden Knights

5-1-0

Goalie Carter Hart Confirmed

FINAL

Minnesota Wild

3-1-1

Goalie Jesper Wallstedt Confirmed

Monday, October 12 · 8:10 PM ET

VGKStarting goaliesMIN

This season

Starts

.910

Sv%

.936

.900

HDSv%

1.000

−0.2

GSAx

+6.5

Last season

Starts

.891

Sv%

.916

.830

HDSv%

.824

−4.7

GSAx

+7.9

VGKOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)MIN

14th3.23

GF/G

3.3211th

3rd9.64

PP GF/60

9.105th

VGKDefenseMIN

13th3.05

GA/G

2.934th

8th6.85

PK GA/60

7.2514th

VGKTeamMIN

12th57.9%

Pts%

63.4%7th

4th54.5%

xGF%

50.9%12th

7th52.3%

CF%

48.2%24th

1st59.9%

HDCF%

53.5%10th

VGK5-on-5MIN

14th2.57

xGF/60

2.5913th

2nd2.15

xGA/60

2.5013th

19th9.3%

Sh%

9.1%23rd

31st89.0%

Sv%

91.7%4th

24th112.6

CF/60 (both)

119.63rd

17th+0.04

GAx/G

+0.1011th

31st−0.37

GSAx/G

+0.1111th

13th10.8%

Sh%

10.5%15th

28th88.4%

Sv%

90.8%2nd

2nd57.9%

xGF% (L20)

55.0%4th

VGKSpecial teamsMIN

2nd9.29

PP xG/60

7.4916th

7th83.4

PP FF/60

83.66th

26th4.4

PP min/G

5.16th

1st5.92

PK xGA/60

7.9019th

2nd4.1

PK min/G

4.26th

VGKRecent formMIN

Lvs ANA 3-4W@ VAN 3-2W@ SEA 6-2Wvs TOR 4-3Wvs LAK 2-1

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ NSH 3-1Wvs BOS 4-1OTL@ BUF 2-3L@ TBL 2-3W@ FLA 4-1

Game by game

5-1-0

Record

3-1-1

4-1-0

Last 5

3-1-1

4-2

Over–under

0-5

VGKHome and roadseason to dateMIN

3-1-0

Home record

1-0-0

2-0-0

Road record

2-1-1

3-1

Home O/U

0-1

1-1

Road O/U

0-4

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

VGKRest & travelMIN

2 days

Days of rest

2 days

1,305 mi2,100 km

Travel to the game

Home

+2 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

VGKKey injuriesMIN

None listed

Players out or limited

Filip Gustavsson GIRBrock Faber DIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

No key players listed.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 12, 6:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Golden Knights (5-1-0) visited the Wild (3-1-1) on Monday, October 12 at 8:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Golden Knights scored 3.23 goals per game (14th of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Wild scored 3.32 goals per game (11th of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Golden Knights earned 57.9% of available standings points (12th) and the Wild 63.4% (7th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Golden Knights 54.5% (4th), Wild 50.9% (12th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Golden Knights 52.3% (7th), Wild 48.2% (24th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Golden Knights 59.9% (1st), Wild 53.5% (10th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Golden Knights -110, Wild -110) prices the Golden Knights at 50% and the Wild at 50%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Vegas Golden Knights 2, Minnesota Wild 4

Minnesota Wild won by 2.

Against the closing spread (Minnesota Wild +1.5): Minnesota Wild covered.
Combined score 6 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
Minnesota Wild closed at -110 on the moneyline (a 50% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Vegas Golden Knights 2
Minnesota Wild 4

Decided

In regulation

Minnesota Wild won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

50%Market at the close50%

Vegas Golden KnightsMinnesota Wild

48%Market at the open52%

From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Vegas Golden Knights.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Vegas Golden Knights 50%, Minnesota Wild 50%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 11:50 — Minnesota Wild goal (0-1)Minnesota Wild 50% → 66% (+16 pts)
1st 14:32 — Minnesota Wild goal (0-2)Minnesota Wild 69% → 82% (+13 pts)
3rd 9:25 — Vegas Golden Knights goal (2-3)Vegas Golden Knights 5% → 18% (+14 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

39%VGK

Share of G&W replays won

61%MIN

2.7

Expected goals

3.6

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Minnesota Wild won 61% of G&W replays (Vegas Golden Knights 39%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Minnesota Wild. Here is where that came from.

Golden Knights	Goals	Wild
1.7	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.7
1.0	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.2
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.7
2.7	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	3.6
0.2	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.0
0.7	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.8
-1.0	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-0.6
+0.6	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Carter Hart 24/27 · Jesper Wallstedt 21/23	+1.0
0	Empty-net goals	1

Bar left: Golden Knights gainedBar right: Wild gained

How the margin was built, from Minnesota Wild's side:

Chances +0.6Finishing & goaltending +0.4Empty net +1Minnesota Wild by 2

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Minnesota Wild closed as the market favourite at 50% and won.

The line moved toward Vegas Golden Knights before puck drop, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck linefavorite flipped

OpenWild -1.5 (+200)
Golden Knights +1.5 (-245)

CloseWild +1.5 (-288)
Golden Knights -1.5 (+217)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o +110 / u -132)

Close6.5 (o +113 / u -139)

Moneyline

OpenGolden Knights -102 48%
Wild -118 52%

CloseGolden Knights -110 50%
Wild -110 50%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 28 times since 2018-19: the Golden Knights won 15 and the Wild 13.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Mar 6, 2026	Wild 4, Golden Knights 2 Wild won	Wild -118 favorite won	6.5 under
Dec 29, 2025	Wild 5, Golden Knights 2 Wild won		5.5 over
Nov 16, 2025	Golden Knights 2, Wild 3 OT Wild won	Golden Knights -130 underdog won	6 under
Mar 25, 2025	Golden Knights 5, Wild 1 Golden Knights won	Golden Knights -220 favorite won	5.5 over
Jan 12, 2025	Wild 1, Golden Knights 4 Golden Knights won	Golden Knights -192 favorite won	6 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams