Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Final — October 14, 2026
DALStarting goaliesCOL
DALOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)COLDALDefenseCOLDALTeamCOLDAL5-on-5COLDALSpecial teamsCOLDALRecent formCOLDALHome and roadseason to dateCOLInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DALRest & travelCOLDALKey injuriesCOLAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 14, 8:10 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Stars (2-3-1) visited the Avalanche (4-2-0) on Wednesday, October 14 at 8:40 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Stars scored 3.40 goals per game (8th of 32) and allowed 2.76 (2nd). The Avalanche scored 3.68 goals per game (1st of 32) and allowed 2.48 (1st). The Stars earned 68.3% of available standings points (3rd) and the Avalanche 73.8% (1st).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Stars 50.8% (13th), Avalanche 56.6% (1st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Stars 47.5% (27th), Avalanche 56.7% (2nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Stars 55.9% (5th), Avalanche 54.8% (6th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed at 6.5, up from 5.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Stars +130, Avalanche -158) prices the Stars at 42% and the Avalanche at 58%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Dallas Stars won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Colorado Avalanche -1.5): Dallas Stars covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Dallas Stars closed at +130 on the moneyline (a 42% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Colorado Avalanche 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Colorado Avalanche.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Dallas Stars 41%, Colorado Avalanche 59%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 3rd 1:20 — Dallas Stars goal (2-1)Dallas Stars 42% → 69% (+27 pts)
- 3rd 8:21 — Colorado Avalanche goal (2-2)Colorado Avalanche 22% → 54% (+32 pts)
- OT 5:00 — Colorado Avalanche game-endDallas Stars 50% → 100% (+50 pts)
Dallas Stars won after falling as low as 22% (2nd 15:03).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Colorado Avalanche won 63% of G&W replays (Dallas Stars 37%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Colorado Avalanche. Here is where that came from.
| Stars | Goals | Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.8 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.4 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 1.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.2 |
| 0.3 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.1 |
| 0.1 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.1 |
| +0.2 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.3 |
| +0.3 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Casey DeSmith 25/27 · Scott Wedgewood 20/22 | -0.2 |
How the margin was built, from Dallas Stars's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Colorado Avalanche closed as the market favourite at 58% and lost.
The line moved toward Colorado Avalanche before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Stars +1.5 (-199)
Stars +1.5 (-200)
Avalanche -150 57%
Avalanche -158 58%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 27 times since 2018-19: the Stars won 12 and the Avalanche 15.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Avalanche 3, Stars 2 Avalanche won | Stars -115 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Avalanche 2, Stars 0 Avalanche won | ||
| Mar 18, 2026 | Stars 2, Avalanche 1 SO Stars won | Avalanche -140 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Avalanche 5, Stars 4 SO Avalanche won | Avalanche -122 favorite won | 6 over |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Stars 5, Avalanche 4 SO Stars won | Avalanche -145 underdog won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Dallas Stars
- Dallas Stars team stats
- New Jersey Devils 5, Dallas Stars 1 (Oct 27)
- New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 6 (Oct 25)
- Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 22)
Colorado Avalanche
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