Montréal Canadiens vs Washington Capitals Final — October 14, 2026
MTLStarting goaliesWSH
MTLOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)WSHMTLDefenseWSHMTLTeamWSHMTL5-on-5WSHMTLSpecial teamsWSHMTLRecent formWSHMTLHome and roadseason to dateWSHInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
MTLRest & travelWSHMTLKey injuriesWSHAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 14, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Canadiens (3-2-1) visited the Capitals (3-3-0) on Wednesday, October 14 at 7:40 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Canadiens scored 3.45 goals per game (6th of 32) and allowed 3.12 (18th). The Capitals scored 3.21 goals per game (15th of 32) and allowed 2.98 (10th). The Canadiens earned 64.6% of available standings points (5th) and the Capitals 57.9% (12th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Canadiens 48.8% (20th), Capitals 50.0% (17th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Canadiens 48.6% (23rd), Capitals 49.4% (15th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Canadiens 46.4% (24th), Capitals 46.9% (22nd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Canadiens -102, Capitals -118) prices the Canadiens at 48% and the Capitals at 52%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Montréal Canadiens 4, Washington Capitals 5
Washington Capitals won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Washington Capitals -1.5): Montréal Canadiens covered.
- Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Washington Capitals closed at -118 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Washington Capitals 5
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Montréal Canadiens.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Montréal Canadiens 49%, Washington Capitals 51%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 6:16 — Washington Capitals goal (2-3)Washington Capitals 50% → 70% (+20 pts)
- 2nd 12:58 — Montréal Canadiens goal (3-3)Montréal Canadiens 27% → 49% (+22 pts)
- 3rd 12:29 — Washington Capitals goal (3-4)Washington Capitals 50% → 85% (+35 pts)
Washington Capitals won after falling as low as 33% (1st 19:34).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Montréal Canadiens won 62% of G&W replays (Washington Capitals 38%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Montréal Canadiens. Here is where that came from.
| Canadiens | Goals | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.6 |
| 0.4 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.6 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.4 |
| 3.5 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.6 |
| 0.5 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 1.2 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.4 |
| -0.0 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +2.4 |
| -2.4 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jakub Dobes 18/23 · Charlie Lindgren 26/30 | +0.0 |
How the margin was built, from Washington Capitals's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Washington Capitals closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.
The line moved toward Montréal Canadiens before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Canadiens +1.5 (-218)
Canadiens +1.5 (-250)
Capitals -130 54%
Capitals -118 52%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Canadiens won 8 and the Capitals 13.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Capitals 2, Canadiens 6 Canadiens won | Canadiens -162 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Canadiens 2, Capitals 3 OT Capitals won | Capitals -140 favorite won | 6 under |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Capitals 8, Canadiens 4 Capitals won | Canadiens -130 underdog won | 6 over |
| Jan 10, 2025 | Canadiens 3, Capitals 2 OT Canadiens won | Capitals -225 underdog won | 6 under |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Capitals 4, Canadiens 2 Capitals won | Capitals -148 favorite won | 6 push |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Montréal Canadiens
- Montréal Canadiens team stats
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Washington Capitals
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