New York Islanders vs Dallas Stars Final — October 25, 2026
NYIStarting goaliesDAL
NYIOffense2026-27 regular season to dateDALNYIDefenseDALNYITeamDALNYI5-on-5DALNYISpecial teamsDALNYIRecent formDALNYIHome and roadseason to dateDALInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYIRest & travelDALNYIKey injuriesDALAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 25, 3:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Islanders (5-3-2) visited the Stars (6-3-1) on Sunday, October 25 at 6:10 PM ET.
The Islanders score 2.90 goals per game (21st of 32) and allow 2.30 (3rd). The Stars score 2.60 goals per game (25th of 32) and allow 1.70 (1st). The Islanders earn 60.0% of available standings points (13th) and the Stars 65.0% (9th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Islanders 52.2% (13th), Stars 53.0% (12th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Islanders 52.7% (10th), Stars 52.1% (12th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Islanders 59.4% (8th), Stars 48.0% (19th).
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Islanders +150, Stars -182) prices the Islanders at 38% and the Stars at 62%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 6
Dallas Stars won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Dallas Stars -1.5): Dallas Stars covered.
- Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- Dallas Stars closed at -182 on the moneyline (a 62% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Dallas Stars 6
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward New York Islanders.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Islanders 38%, Dallas Stars 62%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 10:52 — Dallas Stars goal (2-3)Dallas Stars 59% → 80% (+21 pts)
- 2nd 17:45 — New York Islanders goal (3-3)New York Islanders 20% → 42% (+22 pts)
- 3rd 4:10 — Dallas Stars goal (3-4)Dallas Stars 57% → 82% (+26 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Dallas Stars won 77% of G&W replays (New York Islanders 23%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Dallas Stars. Here is where that came from.
| Islanders | Goals | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| 1.2 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 3.2 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.2 |
| 0.2 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.3 |
| 1.7 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.7 |
| 0.1 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.7 |
| +1.3 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +2.3 |
| -2.3 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Ilya Sorokin 32/38 · Jake Oettinger 17/20 | -1.3 |
How the margin was built, from Dallas Stars's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Dallas Stars closed as the market favourite at 62% and won.
The line moved toward New York Islanders before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Islanders +1.5 (-155)
Islanders +1.5 (-179)
Stars -200 64%
Stars -182 62%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Islanders won 7 and the Stars 7.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | Stars 1, Islanders 2 Islanders won | ||
| Nov 18, 2025 | Islanders 3, Stars 2 Islanders won | Stars -175 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Stars 4, Islanders 3 Stars won | Stars -122 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Islanders 0, Stars 3 Stars won | Stars -177 favorite won | 6 under |
| Feb 26, 2024 | Islanders 3, Stars 2 OT Islanders won | Stars -165 underdog won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
New York Islanders
- New York Islanders team stats
- New York Islanders 4, Nashville Predators 3 (Oct 27)
- Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 2 (Oct 22)
- Anaheim Ducks 2, New York Islanders 3 (Oct 20)
Dallas Stars
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