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NHL · October 18, 2026

Carolina Hurricanes vs Calgary Flames Final — October 18, 2026

Carolina Hurricanes

7-1-1

Goalie Brandon Bussi Confirmed

FINAL

Calgary Flames

1-6-0

Goalie Devin Cooley Confirmed

Sunday, October 18 · 8:10 PM ET

CARStarting goaliesCGY

This season

Starts

.871

Sv%

.818

.750

HDSv%

1.000

−2.7

GSAx

−4.7

Last season

Starts

.895

Sv%

.909

.822

HDSv%

.854

+0.9

GSAx

+15.0

CAROffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)CGY

2nd3.61

GF/G

2.5932nd

4th9.11

PP GF/60

5.7531st

CARDefenseCGY

4th2.93

GA/G

3.1621st

13th7.23

PK GA/60

7.1312th

CARTeamCGY

2nd68.9%

Pts%

47.0%29th

2nd56.4%

xGF%

47.2%27th

1st59.8%

CF%

49.2%17th

8th53.7%

HDCF%

46.9%23rd

CAR5-on-5CGY

1st3.06

xGF/60

2.3524th

7th2.37

xGA/60

2.6324th

24th8.9%

Sh%

7.8%31st

26th89.5%

Sv%

90.6%13th

13th116.5

CF/60 (both)

118.25th

21st−0.08

GAx/G

−0.2429th

19th−0.06

GSAx/G

+0.149th

17th10.5%

Sh%

8.5%32nd

26th88.6%

Sv%

90.3%6th

1st57.9%

xGF% (L20)

42.4%30th

CARSpecial teamsCGY

9th8.18

PP xG/60

6.6830th

4th83.8

PP FF/60

71.628th

18th4.7

PP min/G

4.621st

3rd6.47

PK xGA/60

7.8118th

13th4.6

PK min/G

4.716th

CARRecent formCGY

Wvs VAN 7-2W@ CHI 5-2W@ PHI 4-1Wvs WSH 4-2W@ WPG 3-2

Resultsoldest to newest

L@ SEA 1-6Lvs COL 3-7Lvs ANA 2-4W@ ANA 4-2L@ VGK 2-6

Game by game

7-1-1

Record

1-6-0

5-0-0

Last 5

1-4-0

4-5

Over–under

4-3

CARHome and roadseason to dateCGY

2-1-1

Home record

0-3-0

5-0-0

Road record

1-3-0

2-2

Home O/U

2-1

2-3

Road O/U

2-2

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

CARRest & travelCGY

1 dayback-to-back

Days of rest

3 days

746 mi1,201 km

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

CARKey injuriesCGY

Seth Jarvis CIRJordan Staal CIR

Players out or limited

Jonathan Huberdeau LWIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 18, 12:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Hurricanes (7-1-1) visited the Flames (1-6-0) on Sunday, October 18 at 8:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Hurricanes scored 3.61 goals per game (2nd of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Flames scored 2.59 goals per game (32nd of 32) and allowed 3.16 (21st). The Hurricanes earned 68.9% of available standings points (2nd) and the Flames 47.0% (29th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Hurricanes 56.4% (2nd), Flames 47.2% (27th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Hurricanes 59.8% (1st), Flames 49.2% (17th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Hurricanes 53.7% (8th), Flames 46.9% (23rd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Hurricanes -205, Flames +170) prices the Hurricanes at 64% and the Flames at 36%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Carolina Hurricanes 2, Calgary Flames 3

Calgary Flames won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Calgary Flames +1.5): Calgary Flames covered.
Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
Calgary Flames closed at +170 on the moneyline (a 36% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Carolina Hurricanes 2
Calgary Flames 3

Decided

In regulation

Calgary Flames won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

64%Market at the close36%

Carolina HurricanesCalgary Flames

65%Market at the open35%

The market barely moved from open to close.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Carolina Hurricanes 64%, Calgary Flames 36%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

2nd 19:39 — Calgary Flames goal (1-2)Calgary Flames 43% → 69% (+26 pts)
2nd 19:56 — Carolina Hurricanes goal (2-2)Carolina Hurricanes 33% → 59% (+26 pts)
3rd 15:32 — Calgary Flames goal (2-3)Calgary Flames 44% → 86% (+42 pts)

Calgary Flames won after falling as low as 19% (2nd 18:30).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

64%CAR

Share of G&W replays won

36%CGY

3.8

Expected goals

2.7

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Carolina Hurricanes won 64% of G&W replays (Calgary Flames 36%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Carolina Hurricanes. Here is where that came from.

Hurricanes	Goals	Flames
2.8	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	1.8
0.6	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.8
0.4	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.1
3.8	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.7
0.2	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.0
1.1	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.5
-2.0	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+0.3
-0.3	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Brandon Bussi 31/34 · Devin Cooley 34/36	+2.0

Bar left: Hurricanes gainedBar right: Flames gained

How the margin was built, from Calgary Flames's side:

Chances -1.3Finishing & goaltending +2.3Calgary Flames by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playUnder 6.5 -1202.00uWIN +2.00u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Carolina Hurricanes closed as the market favourite at 64% and lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenFlames +1.5 (-145)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+118)

CloseFlames +1.5 (-145)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+117)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o +106 / u -130)

Close6.5 (o +100 / u -125)

Moneyline

OpenHurricanes -210 65%
Flames +172 35%

CloseHurricanes -205 64%
Flames +170 36%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Hurricanes won 9 and the Flames 5.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Mar 7, 2026	Hurricanes 4, Flames 5 Flames won	Hurricanes -215 underdog won	5.5 over
Nov 30, 2025	Flames 0, Hurricanes 1 OT Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -250 favorite won	6 under
Mar 2, 2025	Flames 1, Hurricanes 2 OT Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -320 favorite won	6 under
Oct 24, 2024	Hurricanes 4, Flames 2 Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -199 favorite won	6 push
Mar 10, 2024	Flames 2, Hurricanes 7 Hurricanes won	Hurricanes -227 favorite won	6.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams