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NHL · October 26, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames Final — October 26, 2026

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky Confirmed

FINAL

Calgary Flames

4-6-0

Goalie Devin Cooley Confirmed

Monday, October 26 · 8:40 PM ET

TORStarting goaliesCGY

This season

Starts

.895

Sv%

.911

.875

HDSv%

.944

+0.3

GSAx

+2.2

Last season

Starts

.877

Sv%

.909

.799

HDSv%

.854

−18.1

GSAx

+15.0

TOROffense2026-27 regular season to dateCGY

5th3.85

GF/G

2.3030th

4th12.56

PP GF/60

14.382nd

TORDefenseCGY

14th3.15

GA/G

3.9030th

1st1.63

PK GA/60

5.428th

TORTeamCGY

13th61.5%

Pts%

40.0%28th

17th49.1%

xGF%

50.4%14th

25th46.8%

CF%

50.9%15th

20th47.4%

HDCF%

66.7%3rd

TOR5-on-5CGY

16th2.48

xGF/60

2.6511th

20th2.57

xGA/60

2.6021st

8th11.1%

Sh%

5.5%32nd

25th89.1%

Sv%

88.0%31st

11th115.1

CF/60 (both)

123.61st

6th+0.53

GAx/G

−0.5229th

11th+0.16

GSAx/G

−0.6430th

6th12.7%

Sh%

7.7%32nd

9th89.9%

Sv%

87.4%29th

TORSpecial teamsCGY

7th9.11

PP xG/60

6.3128th

9th80.2

PP FF/60

70.118th

21st4.8

PP min/G

3.332nd

16th7.89

PK xGA/60

8.4024th

24th5.7

PK min/G

5.522nd

TORRecent formCGY

Lvs NYI 1-4Wvs SJS 3-1W@ CBJ 6-2Wvs NYR 5-4W@ EDM 7-2

Resultsoldest to newest

W@ ANA 4-2L@ VGK 2-6Wvs CAR 3-2Wvs MIN 2-1Wvs DET 4-1

Game by game

7-4-2

Record

4-6-0

4-1-0

Last 5

4-1-0

6-2-2

Last 10

4-6-0

—

Over–under

4-6

TORHome and roadseason to dateCGY

4-3-1

Home record

3-3-0

3-1-1

Road record

1-3-0

—

Home O/U

2-4

—

Road O/U

2-2

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

TORRest & travelCGY

2 days

Days of rest

2 days

175 mi282 km

Travel to the game

Home

TORKey injuriesCGY

John Tavares CIR

Players out or limited

Jonathan Huberdeau LWIRMikael Backlund CDay-to-day

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 26, 8:10 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Maple Leafs (7-4-2) visited the Flames (4-6-0) on Monday, October 26 at 8:40 PM ET.

The Maple Leafs score 3.85 goals per game (5th of 32) and allow 3.15 (14th). The Flames score 2.30 goals per game (30th of 32) and allow 3.90 (30th). The Maple Leafs earn 61.5% of available standings points (13th) and the Flames 40.0% (28th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Maple Leafs 49.1% (17th), Flames 50.4% (14th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Maple Leafs 46.8% (25th), Flames 50.9% (15th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Maple Leafs 47.4% (20th), Flames 66.7% (3rd).

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Maple Leafs -140, Flames +117) prices the Maple Leafs at 56% and the Flames at 44%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Calgary Flames 5

Calgary Flames won by 3.

Against the closing spread (Calgary Flames +1.5): Calgary Flames covered.
Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Calgary Flames closed at +117 on the moneyline (a 44% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Calgary Flames 5

Decided

In regulation

Calgary Flames won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

56%Market at the close44%

Toronto Maple LeafsCalgary Flames

55%Market at the open45%

From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Toronto Maple Leafs.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Toronto Maple Leafs 56%, Calgary Flames 44%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 10:05 — Calgary Flames goal (0-1)Calgary Flames 45% → 61% (+16 pts)
1st 11:50 — Calgary Flames goal (0-2)Calgary Flames 61% → 76% (+15 pts)
3rd 6:06 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (2-3)Toronto Maple Leafs 7% → 23% (+16 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

33%TOR

Share of G&W replays won

67%CGY

2.4

Expected goals

3.7

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Calgary Flames won 67% of G&W replays (Toronto Maple Leafs 33%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Calgary Flames. Here is where that came from.

Maple Leafs	Goals	Flames
1.4	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.5
0.5	Power-play chancesexpected goals	1.1
0.4	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.1
2.3	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	3.7
0.0	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.1
0.3	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.4
-0.3	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	-0.8
+0.8	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Sergei Bobrovsky 29/32 · Devin Cooley 26/28	+0.3
0	Empty-net goals	2

Bar left: Maple Leafs gainedBar right: Flames gained

How the margin was built, from Calgary Flames's side:

Chances +1.4Finishing & goaltending -0.4Empty net +2Calgary Flames by 3

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playUnder 6.5 +1130.50uLOSS -0.50u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Toronto Maple Leafs closed as the market favourite at 56% and lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenFlames +1.5 (-219)
Maple Leafs -1.5 (+177)

CloseFlames +1.5 (-207)
Maple Leafs -1.5 (+164)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -117 / u -102)

Close6.5 (o -120 / u +100)

Moneyline

OpenMaple Leafs -137 55%
Flames +114 45%

CloseMaple Leafs -140 56%
Flames +117 44%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 23 times since 2018-19: the Maple Leafs won 16 and the Flames 7.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Feb 2, 2026	Maple Leafs 4, Flames 2 Maple Leafs won	Maple Leafs -115 favorite won	6.5 under
Oct 28, 2025	Flames 3, Maple Leafs 4 Maple Leafs won	Maple Leafs -166 favorite won	5.5 over
Mar 17, 2025	Flames 2, Maple Leafs 6 Maple Leafs won	Maple Leafs -200 favorite won	5.5 over
Feb 4, 2025	Maple Leafs 6, Flames 3 Maple Leafs won	Maple Leafs -135 favorite won	5.5 over
Jan 18, 2024	Maple Leafs 4, Flames 3 Maple Leafs won	Maple Leafs -136 favorite won	6.5 over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams