Minnesota Wild vs Calgary Flames Final — October 22, 2026
MINStarting goaliesCGY
MINOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)CGYMINDefenseCGYMINTeamCGYMIN5-on-5CGYMINSpecial teamsCGYMINRecent formCGYMINHome and roadseason to dateCGYInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
MINRest & travelCGYMINKey injuriesCGYAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 22, 3:41 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Wild (6-2-2) visited the Flames (2-6-0) on Thursday, October 22 at 9:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Wild scored 3.32 goals per game (11th of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Flames scored 2.59 goals per game (32nd of 32) and allowed 3.16 (21st). The Wild earned 63.4% of available standings points (7th) and the Flames 47.0% (29th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Wild 50.9% (12th), Flames 47.2% (27th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Wild 48.2% (24th), Flames 49.2% (17th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Wild 53.5% (10th), Flames 46.9% (23rd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Wild -215, Flames +175) prices the Wild at 65% and the Flames at 35%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Minnesota Wild 1, Calgary Flames 2
Calgary Flames won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Calgary Flames +1.5): Calgary Flames covered.
- Combined score 3 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Calgary Flames closed at +175 on the moneyline (a 35% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Calgary Flames 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Minnesota Wild.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Minnesota Wild 65%, Calgary Flames 35%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 10:49 — Calgary Flames goal (0-1)Calgary Flames 37% → 54% (+17 pts)
- 1st 14:06 — Calgary Flames goal (0-2)Calgary Flames 55% → 71% (+16 pts)
- 3rd 4:39 — Minnesota Wild goal (1-2)Minnesota Wild 11% → 29% (+18 pts)
Calgary Flames won after falling as low as 35% (1st 0:00).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Minnesota Wild won 64% of G&W replays (Calgary Flames 36%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Minnesota Wild. Here is where that came from.
| Wild | Goals | Flames |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.0 |
| 1.6 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.9 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.7 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 1.9 |
| 0.7 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.7 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.1 |
| -2.4 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.1 |
| -0.1 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jesper Wallstedt 20/22 · Devin Cooley 36/37 | +2.4 |
How the margin was built, from Calgary Flames's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Minnesota Wild closed as the market favourite at 65% and lost.
The line moved toward Minnesota Wild before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Wild -1.5 (+115)
Wild -1.5 (+119)
Flames +160 37%
Flames +175 35%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Wild won 8 and the Flames 13.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | Flames 1, Wild 4 Wild won | Wild -190 favorite won | 6 under |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Wild 1, Flames 4 Flames won | Wild -120 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Flames 0, Wild 2 Wild won | Wild -148 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Wild 2, Flames 4 Flames won | Wild -125 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Flames 5, Wild 4 Flames won | Wild -149 underdog won | 5.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Minnesota Wild
- Minnesota Wild team stats
- Minnesota Wild 3, Utah Mammoth 1 (Oct 27)
- Minnesota Wild 4, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 25)
- Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 1 (Oct 24)
Calgary Flames
- Calgary Flames team stats
- Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers (Oct 28)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Calgary Flames 5 (Oct 26)
- Detroit Red Wings 1, Calgary Flames 4 (Oct 24)
- Carolina Hurricanes 2, Calgary Flames 3 (Oct 18)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 22, 2026
- Nashville Predators 0, Boston Bruins 6 (Oct 22)
- Anaheim Ducks 1, New Jersey Devils 4 (Oct 22)
- San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 22)
- Florida Panthers 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (Oct 22)
- New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (Oct 22)
- Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 2 (Oct 22)
- Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 22)
- Vegas Golden Knights 2, St Louis Blues 6 (Oct 22)
- Carolina Hurricanes 5, Edmonton Oilers 6 (Oct 22)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Seattle Kraken 5 (Oct 22)
- Detroit Red Wings 5, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 22)
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