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NHL · October 22, 2026

Florida Panthers vs Pittsburgh Penguins Final — October 22, 2026

Florida Panthers

5-3-2

Goalie Cooper Black Confirmed

FINAL

Pittsburgh Penguins

3-6-1

Goalie Arturs Silovs Confirmed

Thursday, October 22 · 7:10 PM ET

FLAStarting goaliesPIT

This season

—

Starts

—

Sv%

.866

—

HDSv%

.778

—

GSAx

−2.8

Last season

—

Starts

—

Sv%

.888

—

HDSv%

.817

—

GSAx

−11.5

FLAOffense2026-27 regular season to datePIT

15th3.10

GF/G

3.3012th

15th7.89

PP GF/60

8.5612th

FLADefensePIT

11th3.00

GA/G

3.8028th

16th7.33

PK GA/60

6.7012th

FLATeamPIT

13th60.0%

Pts%

35.0%28th

4th55.7%

xGF%

54.4%6th

3rd56.6%

CF%

51.1%16th

19th47.4%

HDCF%

64.7%6th

FLA5-on-5PIT

17th2.44

xGF/60

2.925th

1st1.94

xGA/60

2.4515th

22nd8.7%

Sh%

10.5%9th

24th89.0%

Sv%

87.7%30th

23rd109.9

CF/60 (both)

113.514th

21st−0.23

GAx/G

+0.1010th

23rd−0.36

GSAx/G

−0.6128th

16th10.7%

Sh%

11.7%10th

22nd88.2%

Sv%

87.2%27th

FLASpecial teamsPIT

6th9.19

PP xG/60

5.8527th

5th84.4

PP FF/60

58.726th

1st7.6

PP min/G

4.921st

20th7.70

PK xGA/60

8.9629th

32nd6.5

PK min/G

4.57th

FLARecent formPIT

L@ BUF 3-5W@ CBJ 7-3Wvs VAN 3-2Wvs SEA 8-3L@ OTT 1-5

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs DAL 2-1L@ CHI 3-5L@ COL 2-5L@ VGK 2-6L@ UTA 4-5

Game by game

5-3-2

Record

3-6-1

3-2-0

Last 5

1-4-0

5-3-2

Last 10

3-6-1

5-5

Over–under

—

FLAHome and roadseason to datePIT

2-1-0

Home record

2-1-0

3-2-2

Road record

1-5-1

1-2

Home O/U

—

4-3

Road O/U

—

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

FLARest & travelPIT

1 dayback-to-back

Days of rest

3 days

394 mi633 km

Travel to the game

Home

FLAKey injuriesPIT

Jacob Markstrom GIRAleksander Barkov CIR

Players out or limited

Samuel Girard DOutBryan Rust RWIRTrevor van Riemsdyk DIR

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 22, 3:41 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Panthers (5-3-2) visited the Penguins (3-6-1) on Thursday, October 22 at 7:10 PM ET.

The Panthers score 3.10 goals per game (15th of 32) and allow 3.00 (11th). The Penguins score 3.30 goals per game (12th of 32) and allow 3.80 (28th). The Panthers earn 60.0% of available standings points (13th) and the Penguins 35.0% (28th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Panthers 55.7% (4th), Penguins 54.4% (6th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Panthers 56.6% (3rd), Penguins 51.1% (16th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Panthers 47.4% (19th), Penguins 64.7% (6th).

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Panthers -115, Penguins -107) prices the Panthers at 51% and the Penguins at 49%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Florida Panthers 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4

Pittsburgh Penguins won by 4.

Against the closing spread (Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5): Pittsburgh Penguins covered.
Combined score 4 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
Pittsburgh Penguins closed at -107 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Florida Panthers 0
Pittsburgh Penguins 4

Decided

In regulation

Pittsburgh Penguins won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

51%Market at the close49%

Florida PanthersPittsburgh Penguins

49%Market at the open51%

From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Florida Panthers.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Florida Panthers 51%, Pittsburgh Penguins 49%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

1st 15:19 — Pittsburgh Penguins goal (0-1)Pittsburgh Penguins 49% → 66% (+17 pts)
2nd 9:59 — Pittsburgh Penguins goal (0-2)Pittsburgh Penguins 70% → 86% (+15 pts)
3rd 1:40 — Pittsburgh Penguins goal (0-3)Pittsburgh Penguins 91% → 98% (+6 pts)

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

50%FLA

Share of G&W replays won

50%PIT

2.2

Expected goals

2.2

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Pittsburgh Penguins won 50% of G&W replays (Florida Panthers 50%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Panthers	Goals	Penguins
1.5	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.0
0.7	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.1
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.1
2.2	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	2.2
0.4	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.0
0.2	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.3
-2.6	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+0.8
-0.8	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Cooper Black 17/20 · Arturs Silovs 26/26	+2.6
0	Empty-net goals	1

Bar left: Panthers gainedBar right: Penguins gained

How the margin was built, from Pittsburgh Penguins's side:

Chances -0.4Finishing & goaltending +3.4Empty net +1Pittsburgh Penguins by 4

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Florida Panthers closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.

The line moved toward Florida Panthers before puck drop, and they lost.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck linefavorite flipped

OpenPenguins -1.5 (+200)
Panthers +1.5 (-250)

ClosePenguins +1.5 (-286)
Panthers -1.5 (+200)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -140 / u +115)

Close6.5 (o -130 / u +105)

Moneyline

OpenPanthers -105 49%
Penguins -115 51%

ClosePanthers -115 51%
Penguins -107 49%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Panthers won 11 and the Penguins 10.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Apr 5, 2026	Panthers 2, Penguins 5 Penguins won
Apr 4, 2026	Panthers 4, Penguins 9 Penguins won
Oct 23, 2025	Penguins 5, Panthers 3 Penguins won	Panthers -200 underdog won	5.5 over
Mar 23, 2025	Penguins 3, Panthers 4 SO Panthers won	Panthers -258 favorite won	5.5 over
Jan 3, 2025	Penguins 2, Panthers 3 SO Panthers won	Panthers -192 favorite won	6 under

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams