Seattle Kraken vs Calgary Flames Final — October 30, 2026
SEAStarting goaliesCGY
SEAOffense2026-27 regular season to dateCGYSEADefenseCGYSEATeamCGYSEA5-on-5CGYSEASpecial teamsCGYSEARecent formCGYSEAHome and roadseason to dateCGYInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SEARest & travelCGYSEAKey injuriesCGYAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 30, 6:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Kraken (8-4-1) visited the Flames (5-7-0) on Friday, October 30 at 8:10 PM ET.
The Kraken score 3.85 goals per game (3rd of 32) and allow 3.54 (27th). The Flames score 2.33 goals per game (30th of 32) and allow 3.75 (30th). The Kraken earn 65.4% of available standings points (9th) and the Flames 41.7% (28th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Kraken 43.8% (28th), Flames 50.6% (14th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Kraken 41.5% (32nd), Flames 51.9% (14th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Kraken 42.1% (25th), Flames 60.6% (6th).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kraken -115, Flames -105) prices the Kraken at 51% and the Flames at 49%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Seattle Kraken 2, Calgary Flames 6
Calgary Flames won by 4.
- Against the closing spread (Calgary Flames +1.5): Calgary Flames covered.
- Combined score 8 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Calgary Flames closed at -105 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Calgary Flames 6
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Seattle Kraken 51%, Calgary Flames 49%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 2:32 — Calgary Flames goal (0-1)Calgary Flames 51% → 68% (+18 pts)
- 1st 11:34 — Seattle Kraken goal (1-1)Seattle Kraken 35% → 51% (+16 pts)
- 2nd 5:45 — Calgary Flames goal (1-2)Calgary Flames 49% → 69% (+20 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Calgary Flames won 58% of G&W replays (Seattle Kraken 42%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Kraken | Goals | Flames |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.8 |
| 0.3 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.3 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 1.8 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.2 |
| 0.4 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.0 |
| +0.2 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +3.8 |
| -3.8 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Philipp Grubauer 10/14, Joey Daccord 11/13 · Dustin Wolf 20/22 | -0.2 |
How the margin was built, from Calgary Flames's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Seattle Kraken closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kraken -1.5 (+210)
Kraken -1.5 (+208)
Flames -105 49%
Flames -105 49%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 20 times since 2018-19: the Kraken won 9 and the Flames 11.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Flames 1, Kraken 6 Kraken won | Kraken -161 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Kraken 6, Flames 1 Kraken won | Flames -111 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Flames 1, Kraken 4 Kraken won | ||
| Jan 5, 2026 | Kraken 5, Flames 1 Kraken won | Flames -150 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Kraken 2, Flames 4 Flames won | Flames -175 favorite won | 5.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Seattle Kraken
- Seattle Kraken team stats
- Calgary Flames 1, Seattle Kraken 2 (Nov 4)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Seattle Kraken 5 (Oct 28)
- Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 1 (Oct 24)
Calgary Flames
- Calgary Flames team stats
- Calgary Flames 1, Seattle Kraken 2 (Nov 4)
- Calgary Flames 2, San Jose Sharks 1 (Nov 2)
- Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 5 (Oct 31)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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