Calgary Flames vs Colorado Avalanche Final — October 31, 2026
CGYStarting goaliesCOL
CGYOffense2026-27 regular season to dateCOLCGYDefenseCOLCGYTeamCOLCGY5-on-5COLCGYSpecial teamsCOLCGYRecent formCOLCGYHome and roadseason to dateCOLInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CGYRest & travelCOLCGYKey injuriesCOLAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is a straight-line estimate from the arena of each team's previous game, not the team's actual itinerary; time-zone change is at game time. Days of rest are full days off since each team's previous game this season (0 = back-to-back); preseason games do not count. Schedule facts only: no fatigue adjustment is applied.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 31, 12:40 p.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Flames (6-7-0) visited the Avalanche (7-5-1) on Saturday, October 31 at 10:10 PM ET.
The Flames score 2.62 goals per game (28th of 32) and allow 3.62 (27th). The Avalanche score 4.15 goals per game (2nd of 32) and allow 3.23 (16th). The Flames earn 46.2% of available standings points (24th) and the Avalanche 57.7% (15th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Flames 50.7% (14th), Avalanche 50.5% (16th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Flames 52.2% (11th), Avalanche 52.3% (10th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Flames 57.1% (10th), Avalanche 48.8% (18th).
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Flames +330, Avalanche -425) prices the Flames at 22% and the Avalanche at 78%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Colorado Avalanche won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Colorado Avalanche -2.5): Colorado Avalanche covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Colorado Avalanche closed at -425 on the moneyline (a 78% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Colorado Avalanche 5
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Colorado Avalanche.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Calgary Flames 22%, Colorado Avalanche 78%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 14:13 — Colorado Avalanche goal (0-1)Colorado Avalanche 75% → 87% (+12 pts)
- 2nd 2:37 — Colorado Avalanche goal (0-2)Colorado Avalanche 87% → 95% (+8 pts)
- 2nd 5:48 — Colorado Avalanche goal (0-3)Colorado Avalanche 95% → 98% (+4 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Colorado Avalanche won 66% of G&W replays (Calgary Flames 34%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Colorado Avalanche. Here is where that came from.
| Flames | Goals | Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| 2.4 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.7 |
| 0.0 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.9 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.4 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.6 |
| 0.4 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| -0.4 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +1.4 |
| -1.4 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Arsenii Sergeev 28/33 · Mackenzie Blackwood 25/27 | +0.4 |
How the margin was built, from Colorado Avalanche's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Colorado Avalanche closed as the market favourite at 78% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Flames +1.5 (+133)
Flames +2.5 (-125)
Avalanche -410 77%
Avalanche -425 78%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2018-19: the Flames won 7 and the Avalanche 15.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Avalanche 7, Flames 3 Avalanche won | Avalanche -240 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Avalanche 3, Flames 1 Avalanche won | ||
| Apr 9, 2026 | Flames 1, Avalanche 3 Avalanche won | ||
| Mar 30, 2026 | Flames 2, Avalanche 9 Avalanche won | Avalanche -375 favorite won | 6 over |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Flames 3, Avalanche 2 SO Flames won | Avalanche -275 underdog won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Calgary Flames
- Calgary Flames team stats
- Calgary Flames 1, Seattle Kraken 2 (Nov 4)
- Calgary Flames 2, San Jose Sharks 1 (Nov 2)
- Seattle Kraken 2, Calgary Flames 6 (Oct 30)
Colorado Avalanche
- Colorado Avalanche team stats
- Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche (Nov 5)
- Colorado Avalanche 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 7 (Nov 3)
- Colorado Avalanche 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (Nov 2)
- New Jersey Devils 2, Colorado Avalanche 5 (Oct 28)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 31, 2026
- Chicago Blackhawks 4, Boston Bruins 5 (Oct 31)
- St Louis Blues 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (Oct 31)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Nashville Predators 5 (Oct 31)
- Edmonton Oilers 4, New York Islanders 0 (Oct 31)
- Buffalo Sabres 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (Oct 31)
- Ottawa Senators 5, San Jose Sharks 1 (Oct 31)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (Oct 31)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Vancouver Canucks 2 (Oct 31)
- Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 31)
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