Toledo Rockets vs Michigan State Spartans Final — September 4, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
TOLRest & travelMSU
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Toledo visited Michigan State on Friday, September 4 at 8:00 PM ET.
Michigan State closed as a 10-point favorite at home against Toledo. The spread opened at Michigan State -10.5. The total closed at 48.5, down from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Toledo +332, Michigan State -450) prices Toledo at 22% and Michigan State at 78%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Toledo Rockets 20, Michigan State Spartans 30
Michigan State Spartans won by 10.
- Against the closing spread (Michigan State Spartans -10): push.
- Combined score 50 vs the closing total of 48.5: Over.
- Michigan State Spartans closed at -450 on the moneyline (a 78% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Toledo Rockets 22%, Michigan State Spartans 78%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 8:57 — Toledo Rockets ball, 2nd & 21 at TOL 29Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short right to #19 D.Barnett Jr. caught at TOL47, for 21 yards to the TOL50 (#2 D.Vaught), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNToledo Rockets 5% → 14% (+9 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 6:49 — Toledo Rockets ball, 2nd & 6 at MSU 6Adjatay Dabbs 6 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Reice Griffith Kick)Michigan State Spartans 73% → 81% (+8 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 13:47 — Toledo Rockets ball, 2nd & 10 at TOL 29Shotgun #8 C.Walendzak rush middle for 71 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:47, 1ST DOWN #6 J.Richter pass attempt failedToledo Rockets 17% → 34% (+17 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 13:47 — Michigan State Spartans ball, 2nd & 10 at MSU 30Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at MSU49, for 26 yards to the TOL44 (#44 I.Zay; #23 I.Petite), 1ST DOWNMichigan State Spartans 70% → 79% (+9 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:37 — Michigan State Spartans ball, 4th & 1 at TOL 5Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at TOL00, for 5 yards to the TOL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:37, 1ST DOWN #3 R.Bullard Jr. pass…Michigan State Spartans 75% → 87% (+12 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Michigan State Spartans would win 88% of the time (Toledo Rockets 12%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Michigan State Spartans. Here is where that came from.
| Toledo | Points added | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| -9.9 | Passingdropbacks | +5.0 |
| -7.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.4 |
| +19.3 | Explosive plays5 plays · 2 plays | +1.5 |
| -2.2 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -1.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +5.8 |
| +2.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +4.3 |
| +2.0 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 1 · 2 of 4 | +1.8 |
| +1.8 | All plays | +12.9 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 17.8 points to Toledo Rockets. The final margin was 10.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Michigan State Spartans closed as the market favourite at 78% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Toledo +10.5 (-110)
Toledo +10 (-109)
Michigan State -435 78%
Michigan State -450 78%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Teams
Toledo Rockets
- Toledo Rockets team stats
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Toledo Rockets 34, Eastern Michigan Eagles 14 (Oct 17)
- Buffalo Bulls 23, Toledo Rockets 8 (Oct 10)
Michigan State Spartans
- Michigan State Spartans team stats
- Michigan State Spartans 10, UCLA Bruins 28 (Oct 24)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Illinois Fighting Illini 38, Michigan State Spartans 37 (Oct 10)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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