Northwestern Wildcats vs Michigan State Spartans Final — October 17, 2026
NUOffense2026 regular season to dateMSU
NUDefenseMSUNURecent formMSUNUHome and roadseason to dateMSUNULast 10 gamesMSURest & travelrest and travel
NURest & travelMSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Northwestern (3-1) visited Michigan State (2-4) on Saturday, October 17 at 12:00 PM ET.
Northwestern has the 3rd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 71st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Michigan State has the 73rd-ranked offense and the 109th-ranked defense. When Northwestern has the ball, a 3rd-ranked offense (+0.374 EPA per play) meets a 109th-ranked defense (+0.182 allowed); when Michigan State has it, a 73rd-ranked offense (+0.044) meets a 71st-ranked defense (+0.069 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Northwestern offense is at 56.7% (4th) and the Michigan State offense at 48.5% (52nd). Northwestern scores 35.8 points per game (22nd) and allows 15.8 (11th); Michigan State scores 21.3 (97th) and allows 25.7 (66th).
Northwestern is 4-1 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 45-14 win over Ball State. Michigan State is 2-4 and 3-2-1 against the spread; its last game was a 38-37 loss to Illinois.
Northwestern closed as a 7.5-point road favorite, with Michigan State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Northwestern -8.5. The total closed at 50.5, up from 48.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Northwestern -305, Michigan State +248) prices Northwestern at 72% and Michigan State at 28%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21
Northwestern Wildcats won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Michigan State Spartans +7.5): Michigan State Spartans covered.
- Combined score 45 vs the closing total of 50.5: Under.
- Northwestern Wildcats closed at -305 on the moneyline (a 72% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Michigan State Spartans.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Northwestern Wildcats 72%, Michigan State Spartans 28%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 0:47 — Michigan State Spartans ball, 2nd & 10 at NU 32Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep left to #14 B.Williams caught at NU 00, for 32 yards to the NU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:47, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt g…Michigan State Spartans 28% → 43% (+15 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 11:48 — Michigan State Spartans ball, 2nd & 11 at MSU 47Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep middle to #13 C.McCray caught at NU 18, for 53 yards to the NU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:48, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt g…Michigan State Spartans 48% → 72% (+24 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:29 — Northwestern Wildcats ball, 4th & 8 at NU 28#86 A.Honig pass incomplete short middle to #41 R.Preckel thrown to NU 40 broken up by #23 D.White, TURNOVER ON DOWNSMichigan State Spartans 53% → 73% (+21 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:00 — Michigan State Spartans ball, 4th & 9 at NU 15#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 33 yards NO GOOD blocked by #32 M.Smith (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 01:00, out of bounds at NU 00Northwestern Wildcats 27% → 56% (+29 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:02 — Northwestern Wildcats ball, 2nd & 10 at MSU 16#90 J.Kleather field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick), clock 00:02Northwestern Wildcats 83% → 100% (+17 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Northwestern Wildcats won after falling as low as 17% (Q4 1:56).
Game DNA
| Northwestern | Points added | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Passingdropbacks | -13.4 |
| +0.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -6.0 |
| +11.3 | Explosive plays4 plays · 3 plays | +15.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -1.6 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -3.2 |
| -2.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.4 |
| +2.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 5 · 1 of 2 | +3.1 |
| +7.2 | All plays | -3.9 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 10.9 points to Northwestern Wildcats. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Northwestern Wildcats closed as the market favourite at 72% and won.
The line moved toward Michigan State Spartans before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Northwestern -8.5 (-110)
Northwestern -7.5 (-104)
Michigan State +260 27%
Michigan State +248 28%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts112
- Completion %71.4%14th
- Passing yards1,172105th
- Yards per attempt10.58th
- TD–INT9–0
- Rushing yards33492nd
- Season line60 carries, 334 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards42533rd
- Season line24 catches, 425 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles4929th
- Attempts155
- Completion %65.8%71st
- Passing yards1,047141st
- Yards per attempt6.8178th
- TD–INT5–3
- Rushing yards304121st
- Season line64 carries, 304 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards242190th
- Season line19 catches, 242 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles38134th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Northwestern | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateNorthwestern offense vs Michigan State defense | 52.0%3rd | 37.3%13th |
| Early-down success rateMichigan State offense vs Northwestern defense | 45.3%93rd | 43.5%67th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateNorthwestern offense vs Michigan State defense | 44.4%41st | 43.7%96th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMichigan State offense vs Northwestern defense | 44.7%104th | 43.8%48th |
| Explosive play rateNorthwestern offense vs Michigan State defense | 10.3%6th | 6.9%71st |
| Explosive play rateMichigan State offense vs Northwestern defense | 6.9%74th | 3.6%137th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 42.5%117th-highest | 49.0%84th-highest |
On 3rd down Northwestern converts 44.4% (41st) against a Michigan State defense allowing 43.7% (96th).
On 3rd down Michigan State converts 43.8% (48th) against a Northwestern defense allowing 44.7% (104th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Northwestern | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | David Braun | Pat Fitzgerald |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 23–20 | 2–4 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 23–20 | 112–105 |
| Offensive coordinator | Chip Kelly | Nick Sheridan |
| Defensive coordinator | Tim McGarigle | Max Bullough / Joe Rossi |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Northwestern won 0 and Michigan State 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2021 | Michigan State 38, Northwestern 21 Michigan State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Northwestern Wildcats
- Northwestern Wildcats team stats
- Northwestern Wildcats at Oregon Ducks (Oct 31)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- Penn State Nittany Lions 13, Northwestern Wildcats 34 (Oct 2)
Michigan State Spartans
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
- Charlotte 49ers 38, Temple Owls 31 (Oct 17)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results