Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans Final — October 10, 2026
ILLOffense2026 regular season to dateMSU
ILLDefenseMSUILLRecent formMSUILLHome and roadseason to dateMSUILLLast 10 gamesMSURest & travelrest and travel
ILLRest & travelMSUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Illinois (1-3) visited Michigan State (2-3) on Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET.
Illinois has the 31st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 136th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Michigan State has the 97th-ranked offense and the 111th-ranked defense. When Illinois has the ball, a 31st-ranked offense (+0.194 EPA per play) meets a 111th-ranked defense (+0.193 allowed); when Michigan State has it, a 97th-ranked offense (−0.027) meets a 136th-ranked defense (+0.343 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Illinois offense is at 52.3% (19th) and the Michigan State offense at 46.6% (73rd). Illinois scores 26.2 points per game (70th) and allows 30.0 (91st); Michigan State scores 18.2 (109th) and allows 23.2 (50th).
Illinois is 2-3 and 2-3 against the spread; its last game was a 24-17 loss to Purdue. Michigan State is 2-3 and 2-2-1 against the spread; its last game was a 31-3 loss to Wisconsin.
Illinois closed as a 2.5-point road favorite, with Michigan State getting the points at home. The spread opened at Illinois -3.5. The total closed at 48.5, down from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Illinois -145, Michigan State +120) prices Illinois at 57% and Michigan State at 43%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Illinois Fighting Illini 38, Michigan State Spartans 37
Illinois Fighting Illini won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Michigan State Spartans +2.5): Michigan State Spartans covered.
- Combined score 75 vs the closing total of 48.5: Over.
- Illinois Fighting Illini closed at -145 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Michigan State Spartans.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Illinois Fighting Illini 57%, Michigan State Spartans 43%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 2:00 — Michigan State Spartans ball, 2nd & 5 at ILL 13#3 R.Bullard Jr. rush left for 11 yards gain to the ILL02 fumbled by #3 R.Bullard Jr. at ILL03 forced by #43 J.Barna recovered by MSU #31 J.Savoury at ILL02, End Of Play…Michigan State Spartans 25% → 38% (+13 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Michigan State Spartans ball, 1st & 1 at ILL 25#13 C.McCray rush left for 10 yards gain to the ILL15 (#16 T.Heckel), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNIllinois Fighting Illini 51% → 100% (+49 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Michigan State Spartans ball, 1st & 10 at ILL 25#13 C.McCray rush left for 10 yards gain to the ILL15 (#16 T.Heckel), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNIllinois Fighting Illini 49% → 86% (+37 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Michigan State Spartans ball, 3rd & 6 at ILL 25#13 C.McCray rush left for 10 yards gain to the ILL15 (#16 T.Heckel), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNMichigan State Spartans 28% → 49% (+21 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — Illinois Fighting Illini ball, 1st & 10 at MSU 25Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at MSU13, for 25 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attemp…Illinois Fighting Illini 54% → 75% (+20 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Illinois | Points added | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| +1.4 | Passingdropbacks | +11.5 |
| -1.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.0 |
| +3.8 | Explosive plays2 plays · 2 plays | +6.9 |
| -4.6 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +3.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.0 |
| +1.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -3.1 |
| +8.6 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 5 · 3 of 5 | +8.0 |
| +12.4 | All plays | +22.3 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 10.1 points to Michigan State Spartans. The final margin was 1.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Illinois Fighting Illini closed as the market favourite at 57% and won.
The line moved toward Michigan State Spartans before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Illinois -3.5 (-106)
Illinois -2.5 (-115)
Michigan State +134 41%
Michigan State +120 43%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts155
- Completion %65.8%70th
- Passing yards1,24659th
- Yards per attempt8.089th
- TD–INT11–3
- Rushing yards32170th
- Season line45 carries, 321 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards5468th
- Season line40 catches, 546 yds, 8 TD
- Tackles3761st
- Attempts129
- Completion %62.0%125th
- Passing yards851152nd
- Yards per attempt6.6184th
- TD–INT3–3
- Rushing yards30482nd
- Season line64 carries, 304 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards206198th
- Season line15 catches, 206 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles33115th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Illinois | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateIllinois offense vs Michigan State defense | 48.7%17th | 37.6%15th |
| Early-down success rateMichigan State offense vs Illinois defense | 50.0%126th | 42.1%78th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateIllinois offense vs Michigan State defense | 50.0%18th | 42.4%90th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMichigan State offense vs Illinois defense | 47.9%119th | 41.3%66th |
| Explosive play rateIllinois offense vs Michigan State defense | 6.7%74th | 6.8%73rd |
| Explosive play rateMichigan State offense vs Illinois defense | 6.9%75th | 3.5%132nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 53.3%46th-highest | 48.2%88th-highest |
On 3rd down Illinois converts 50.0% (18th) against a Michigan State defense allowing 42.4% (90th).
On 3rd down Michigan State converts 41.3% (66th) against a Illinois defense allowing 47.9% (119th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Illinois | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Bret Bielema | Pat Fitzgerald |
| Tenureat this school | 6th season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 39–29 | 2–3 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 136–87 | 112–104 |
| Offensive coordinator | Barry Lunney Jr. | Nick Sheridan |
| Defensive coordinator | Vacant | Max Bullough / Joe Rossi |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Illinois won 1 and Michigan State 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | Michigan State 16, Illinois 38 Illinois won | ||
| Nov 5, 2022 | Michigan State 23, Illinois 15 Michigan State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Illinois Fighting Illini
- Illinois Fighting Illini team stats
- Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins (Oct 31)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Purdue Boilermakers 24, Illinois Fighting Illini 17 (Oct 3)
Michigan State Spartans
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