Michigan State Spartans vs UCLA Bruins Final — October 24, 2026
MSUOffense2026 regular season to dateUCLA
MSUDefenseUCLAMSURecent formUCLAMSUHome and roadseason to dateUCLAMSULast 10 gamesUCLARest & travelrest and travel
MSURest & travelUCLAAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Michigan State (2-5) visited UCLA (6-0) on Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 PM ET.
Michigan State has the 80th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 112th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UCLA has the 28th-ranked offense and the 4th-ranked defense. When Michigan State has the ball, a 80th-ranked offense (+0.037 EPA per play) meets a 4th-ranked defense (−0.193 allowed); when UCLA has it, a 28th-ranked offense (+0.193) meets a 112th-ranked defense (+0.182 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Michigan State offense is at 48.1% (59th) and the UCLA offense at 47.4% (63rd). Michigan State scores 21.3 points per game (98th) and allows 25.4 (68th); UCLA scores 35.5 (17th) and allows 16.2 (12th).
Michigan State is 2-5 and 4-2-1 against the spread; its last game was a 24-21 loss to Northwestern. UCLA is 6-0 and 6-0 against the spread; its last game was a 17-7 win over Wisconsin.
UCLA closed as a 16.5-point favorite at home against Michigan State. The spread opened at UCLA -12.5. The total closed at 43.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Michigan State +578, UCLA -890) prices Michigan State at 14% and UCLA at 86%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Michigan State Spartans 10, UCLA Bruins 28
UCLA Bruins won by 18.
- Against the closing spread (UCLA Bruins -16.5): UCLA Bruins covered.
- Combined score 38 vs the closing total of 43.5: Under.
- UCLA Bruins closed at -890 on the moneyline (a 86% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward UCLA Bruins.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Michigan State Spartans 14%, UCLA Bruins 86%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 6:09 — UCLA Bruins ball, 2nd & 10 at MSU 36Shotgun #6 A.Woods rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU29 fumbled by #6 A.Woods at MSU29 forced by #2 D.Vaught recovered by MSU #2 D.Vaught at MSU29 #2 D.Vaug…Michigan State Spartans 11% → 21% (+10 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 13:01 — Michigan State Spartans ball, 2nd & 10 at MSU 29Shotgun #32 K.Williams rush left for 10 yards loss to the MSU19 fumbled by #32 K.Williams at MSU19 forced by #12 M.Hartford recovered by UCLA #10 S.Omosigho at M…UCLA Bruins 69% → 79% (+11 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 6:23 — UCLA Bruins ball, 3rd & 7 at MSU 34Shotgun #21 J.Thomas rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU25 fumbled by #21 J.Thomas at MSU25 forced by #2 D.Vaught recovered by MSU #21 N.Martinez at MSU25 #2…Michigan State Spartans 13% → 25% (+12 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 5:36 — Michigan State Spartans ball, 2nd & 10 at UCLA 19Shotgun #10 K.Coffman pass intercepted by #0 D.Pellot at UCLA12 #0 D.Pellot return 67 yards to the MSU21 (#32 K.Williams)UCLA Bruins 76% → 89% (+13 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Michigan State | Points added | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| -7.6 | Passingdropbacks | -1.3 |
| -1.5 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.4 |
| +1.9 | Explosive plays1 plays · 2 plays | +6.0 |
| -17.2 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -17.8 |
| -7.1 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.9 |
| -0.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +2.8 |
| +0.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 3 of 5 | +0.5 |
| -31.1 | All plays | -14.0 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 6.3 points to UCLA Bruins. The final margin was 18.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
UCLA Bruins closed as the market favourite at 86% and won.
The line moved toward UCLA Bruins before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Michigan State +12.5 (-110)
Michigan State +16.5 (-109)
UCLA -527 81%
UCLA -890 86%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts1
- Completion %100.0%
- Passing yards19
- Yards per attempt19.0
- TD–INT0–0
- Rushing yards327142nd
- Season line76 carries, 327 yds, 5 TD
- Receiving yards261225th
- Season line27 catches, 261 yds
- Tackles46110th
- Attempts36
- Completion %63.9%
- Passing yards290
- Yards per attempt8.1
- TD–INT1–0
- Rushing yards57126th
- Season line84 carries, 571 yds, 11 TD
- Receiving yards313153rd
- Season line24 catches, 313 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles5070th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Michigan State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMichigan State offense vs UCLA defense | 42.9%76th | 40.5%32nd |
| Early-down success rateUCLA offense vs Michigan State defense | 38.0%11th | 42.6%79th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMichigan State offense vs UCLA defense | 41.7%57th | 33.3%21st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUCLA offense vs Michigan State defense | 45.2%110th | 50.0%19th |
| Explosive play rateMichigan State offense vs UCLA defense | 3.8%136th | 6.4%53rd |
| Explosive play rateUCLA offense vs Michigan State defense | 6.7%65th | 10.1%3rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 49.6%81st-highest | 42.9%117th-highest |
On 3rd down Michigan State converts 41.7% (57th) against a UCLA defense allowing 33.3% (21st).
On 3rd down UCLA converts 50.0% (19th) against a Michigan State defense allowing 45.2% (110th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Michigan State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Pat Fitzgerald | Bob Chesney |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 2–5 | 6–0 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 112–106 | 27–6 |
| Offensive coordinator | Nick Sheridan | Dean Kennedy |
| Defensive coordinator | Max Bullough / Joe Rossi | Colin Hitschler |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Michigan State won 0 and UCLA 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | UCLA 38, Michigan State 13 UCLA won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Michigan State Spartans
- Michigan State Spartans team stats
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Illinois Fighting Illini 38, Michigan State Spartans 37 (Oct 10)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
UCLA Bruins
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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