Liberty Flames vs Delaware Blue Hens Final — October 2, 2026
Offense2026 regular season to date
DefenseLast 10 gamesRest & travelrest and travel
Rest & travelAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (teams with data: 95 for EPA per play / Success rate; 98 for EPA per play allowed / Success rate allowed; 138 for Points per game / Points allowed per game); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Liberty (2-1) visited Delaware (1-2) on Friday, October 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Liberty scores 32.7 points per game (34th of 138) and allows 17.3 (25th). Delaware scores 17.0 points per game (111th of 138) and allows 30.3 (87th).
Liberty closed as a 7.5-point road favorite, with Delaware getting the points at home. The spread opened at Liberty -6.5. The total closed at 51.5, up from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Liberty -285, Delaware +225) prices Liberty at 71% and Delaware at 29%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Liberty Flames 30, Delaware Blue Hens 14
Liberty Flames won by 16.
- Against the closing spread (Delaware Blue Hens +7.5): Liberty Flames covered.
- Combined score 44 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- Liberty Flames closed at -285 on the moneyline (a 71% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Liberty Flames.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Liberty Flames 71%, Delaware Blue Hens 29%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 6:39 — Liberty Flames ball, 1st & 10 at LIB 11No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete deep middle to #2 M.Jackson caught at DEL41, for 50 yards to the DEL39 (#2 K.Ali), 1ST DOWNLiberty Flames 75% → 80% (+5 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:10 — Delaware Blue Hens ball, 3rd & 7 at LIB 20No Huddle-Shotgun #11 E.Archield Jr. pass incomplete short right to #0 B.Graves thrown to LIB15Liberty Flames 75% → 81% (+6 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 7:35 — Liberty Flames ball, 3rd & 2 at LIB 44No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush right for 56 yards gain to the DEL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:35, 1ST DOWN #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41…Liberty Flames 83% → 90% (+7 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Liberty Flames would win 97% of the time (Delaware Blue Hens 3%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Liberty Flames. Here is where that came from.
| Liberty | Points added | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| -9.2 | Passingdropbacks | -16.6 |
| -4.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.1 |
| +12.7 | Explosive plays4 plays · 4 plays | +14.5 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -1.3 |
| +3.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.1 |
| -1.2 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -3.5 |
| -3.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 5 · 1 of 2 | -0.8 |
| -1.2 | All plays | -9.9 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 7.5 points to Liberty Flames. The final margin was 16.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Liberty Flames closed as the market favourite at 71% and won.
The line moved toward Liberty Flames before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Liberty -6.5 (-110)
Liberty -7.5 (-105)
Delaware +190 33%
Delaware +225 29%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts80
- Completion %58.8%163rd
- Passing yards779135th
- Yards per attempt9.720th
- TD–INT7–0
- Rushing yards31052nd
- Season line47 carries, 310 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards37915th
- Season line14 catches, 379 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles20325th
- Attempts103
- Completion %57.3%179th
- Passing yards838115th
- Yards per attempt8.181st
- TD–INT5–3
- Rushing yards205135th
- Season line45 carries, 205 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards29248th
- Season line20 catches, 292 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles3339th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Liberty | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateLiberty offense vs Delaware defense | 50.0%3rd | 46.4%125th |
| Early-down success rateDelaware offense vs Liberty defense | 36.8%34th | 41.3%46th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateLiberty offense vs Delaware defense | 55.6%6th | 39.4%66th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateDelaware offense vs Liberty defense | 34.4%32nd | 30.6%112th |
| Explosive play rateLiberty offense vs Delaware defense | 8.3%35th | 5.6%36th |
| Explosive play rateDelaware offense vs Liberty defense | 6.5%64th | 6.9%72nd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 40.3%122nd-highest | 53.8%44th-highest |
On 3rd down Liberty converts 55.6% (6th) against a Delaware defense allowing 39.4% (66th).
On 3rd down Delaware converts 30.6% (112th) against a Liberty defense allowing 34.4% (32nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Liberty | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jamey Chadwell | Ryan Carty |
| Tenureat this school | 4th season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 28–14 | 35–19 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 67–36 | 9–8 |
| Offensive coordinator | Newland Isaac | Terence Archer |
| Defensive coordinator | Skylor Magee | Manny Rojas |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Liberty won 1 and Delaware 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Delaware 30, Liberty 59 Liberty won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
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Delaware Blue Hens
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