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NCAAF · October 2, 2026

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Northwestern Wildcats Final — October 2, 2026

Penn State Nittany Lions

3-1

Quarterback Rocco Becht

FINAL

Northwestern Wildcats

1-1

Quarterback Aidan Chiles

Friday, October 2 · 8:00 PM ET

Offense2026 regular season to date

59th+0.010

EPA/play

—

87th39.3%

Success %

—

14th36.8

PPG

32.037th

Defense

2nd−0.297

EPA/play allowed

—

1st32.9%

Success % allowed

—

6th11.5

Opp PPG

18.027th

Last 10 games

Game by game

3-1

Last 4

—

+101

Net points

+44

—

Last 3

2-1

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Rest & travelrest and travel

Rest & travel

6 days

Days of rest

7 days

515 mi829 km

Travel to the game

Home

−1 hclock change vs home

Time-zone change

Home

Venue

Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium

About these numbers

2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (teams with data: 95 for EPA per play / Success rate; 98 for EPA per play allowed / Success rate allowed; 138 for Points per game / Points allowed per game); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.

Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

The pre-game matchup

Penn State (3-1) visited Northwestern (1-1) on Friday, October 2 at 8:00 PM ET.

Penn State scores 36.8 points per game (14th of 138) and allows 11.5 (6th). Northwestern scores 32.0 points per game (37th of 138) and allows 18.0 (27th).

Penn State is 3-1 and 2-2 against the spread; its last game was a 24-20 loss to Wisconsin.

Penn State closed as a 2.5-point road favorite, with Northwestern getting the points at home. The spread opened at Penn State -5.5. The total closed at 47, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Penn State -140, Northwestern +116) prices Penn State at 56% and Northwestern at 44%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Penn State Nittany Lions 13, Northwestern Wildcats 34

Northwestern Wildcats won by 21.

Against the closing spread (Northwestern Wildcats +2.5): Northwestern Wildcats covered.
Combined score 47 vs the closing total of 47: Push.
Northwestern Wildcats closed at +116 on the moneyline (a 44% no-vig market-implied chance).

Before the game: market and G&W

56%Market at the close44%

Penn State Nittany LionsNorthwestern Wildcats

63%Market at the open37%

From open to close the market moved 8 points toward Northwestern Wildcats.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Penn State Nittany Lions 56%, Northwestern Wildcats 44%) and moving with every snap until the final.

Biggest swings

Q1 8:36 — Penn State Nittany Lions ball, 4th & 5 at NU 44#38 N.Tiyce punt 32 yards to the NU12 fair catch by #19 D.Wagner at NU12Northwestern Wildcats 49% → 67% (+19 pts) · Drive 2 in Drive X-Ray
Q1 7:49 — Northwestern Wildcats ball, 1st & 10 at NU 26Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NU35 (#8 K.Ebel; #13 T.Rojas)Penn State Nittany Lions 28% → 47% (+18 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
Q2 13:00 — Northwestern Wildcats ball, 1st & 10 at NU 39#27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 5 yards loss to the NU34 fumbled by #27 G.Sawchuk at NU34 recovered by PSU #17 J.Zayas at NU34, End Of PlayPenn State Nittany Lions 24% → 36% (+12 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
Q2 10:39 — Penn State Nittany Lions ball, 3rd & 1 at NU 8C. Hansen run for 8 yds, for a TD (R. Barker KICK) (J. Kleather KICK)Penn State Nittany Lions 38% → 48% (+10 pts) · Drive 8 in Drive X-Ray
Q2 9:21 — Northwestern Wildcats ball, 2nd & 9 at PSU 38Joseph Himon II 38 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)Northwestern Wildcats 57% → 85% (+28 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

1%PSU

Chance to win, from chances created

99%NU

11.9

Expected points

33.6

Final score

Based on the quality of each team's plays, Northwestern Wildcats would win 99% of the time (Penn State Nittany Lions 1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Northwestern Wildcats. Here is where that came from.

Penn State	Points added	Northwestern
-1.8	Passingdropbacks	+0.8
-1.9	Rushingdesigned runs	+9.6
+4.1	Explosive plays1 plays · 6 plays	+16.6
-3.2	Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways	-4.6
-1.6	Special teamskicks, punts and returns	+1.7
+1.1	Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball	-1.8
+4.6	Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 3 of 5	-1.6
+1.3	All plays	+20.8

Bar left: Penn State gainedBar right: Northwestern gained

The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 12.6 points to Northwestern Wildcats. The final margin was 21.

Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.

The official play, graded

The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.

Official playNorthwestern Wildcats +3 -1151.00uWIN +1.00u

Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.

Line review

Penn State Nittany Lions closed as the market favourite at 56% and lost.

The line moved toward Northwestern Wildcats before kickoff, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Drive X-Ray

Every possession of this game, drive by drive. Hover or tap a drive for the plays.

Every other game: Drive X-Ray.

Market

Closing line and line movement

Spreadmoved 3

OpenNorthwestern +5.5 (-115)
Penn State -5.5 (-105)

CloseNorthwestern +2.5 (-105)
Penn State -2.5 (-117)

Totaldown 0.5

Open47.5 (o -114 / u -106)

Close47 (o -108 / u -113)

Moneyline

OpenPenn State -196 63%
Northwestern +162 37%

ClosePenn State -140 56%
Northwestern +116 44%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

Unlock every game with Analytics — $44.44/mo See today’s free game →

Matchup

Players to watch

Penn State

QB · Rocco Becht

Attempts93
Completion %61.3%138th
Passing yards865103rd
Yards per attempt9.329th
TD–INT9–1

Leading rusher (RB) · James Peoples

Rushing yards199140th
Season line37 carries, 199 yds, 2 TD

Leading receiver (WR) · Koby Howard

Receiving yards34427th
Season line12 catches, 344 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (LB) · Tony Rojas

Tackles22250th

Northwestern

QB · Aidan Chiles

Attempts75
Completion %70.7%29th
Passing yards807128th
Yards per attempt10.87th
TD–INT6–0

Leading rusher (RB) · Gavin Sawchuk

Rushing yards143236th
Season line25 carries, 143 yds

Leading receiver (WR) · Griffin Wilde

Receiving yards24592nd
Season line14 catches, 245 yds, 2 TD

Leading tackler (DB) · Robert Fitzgerald

Tackles3812th

Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.

Success by situation

Situation	Penn State	Northwestern
Early-down success ratePenn State offense vs Northwestern defense	33.8%125th	41.9%96th
Early-down success rateNorthwestern offense vs Penn State defense	29.6%3rd	48.2%8th
3rd-down conversion ratePenn State offense vs Northwestern defense	38.6%76th	50.0%119th
3rd-down conversion rateNorthwestern offense vs Penn State defense	26.8%3rd	42.1%57th
Explosive play ratePenn State offense vs Northwestern defense	8.6%30th	10.6%132nd
Explosive play rateNorthwestern offense vs Penn State defense	5.0%28th	9.4%19th
Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks	47.5%85th-highest	49.1%74th-highest

On 3rd down Penn State converts 38.6% (76th) against a Northwestern defense allowing 50.0% (119th).

On 3rd down Northwestern converts 42.1% (57th) against a Penn State defense allowing 26.8% (3rd).

2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.

Coaching staff

Staff	Penn State	Northwestern
Head coach	Matt Campbell	David Braun
Tenureat this school	1st season	4th season
Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below	3–1	21–20
Career recordas an FBS head coach	110–71	21–20
Offensive coordinator	Taylor Mouser	Chip Kelly
Defensive coordinator	D'Anton Lynn	Tim McGarigle

Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.

Head-to-head

The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Penn State won 2 and Northwestern 1.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Oct 11, 2025	Northwestern 22, Penn State 21 Northwestern won
Sep 30, 2023	Penn State 41, Northwestern 13 Penn State won
Oct 1, 2022	Northwestern 7, Penn State 17 Penn State won

Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.

Teams