Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Marshall Thundering Herd Final — September 12, 2026
Rest & travelrest and travel
MTSURest & travelMRSH
About these numbers
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Middle Tennessee visited Marshall on Saturday, September 12 at 7:00 PM ET.
Marshall closed as a 12.5-point favorite at home against Middle Tennessee. The spread opened at Marshall -17.5. The total closed at 55.5, down from 57.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Middle Tennessee +400, Marshall -550) prices Middle Tennessee at 19% and Marshall at 81%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Marshall Thundering Herd 28
Marshall Thundering Herd won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Marshall Thundering Herd -12.5): Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders covered.
- Combined score 54 vs the closing total of 55.5: Under.
- Marshall Thundering Herd closed at -550 on the moneyline (a 81% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 19%, Marshall Thundering Herd 81%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 9:08 — Marshall Thundering Herd ball, 1st & 10 at MRSH 20Kalen Woods 1 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 11% → 20% (+10 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 5:36 — Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ball, 3rd & 10 at MRSH 11No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #3 C.Lacy caught at MAR07, for 11 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:36, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeoi…Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 35% → 50% (+16 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 13:38 — Marshall Thundering Herd ball, 2nd & 10 at MTSU 18No Huddle-Shotgun #1 Z.Turner rush middle for 15 yards gain to the MT 03 (#22 G.Gaskins; #26 K.Smith), 1ST DOWNMarshall Thundering Herd 56% → 66% (+10 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:23 — Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ball, 3rd & 10 at MTSU 35No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass intercepted by #19 Z.Jackon at MAR42 QB hurried by #7 K.McBride #19 Z.Jackon return 54 yards to the MT 04 (#6 A.Jones) PENA…Marshall Thundering Herd 70% → 94% (+24 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:22 — Marshall Thundering Herd ball, 3rd & 12 at MTSU 33Kneel down by Marshall at MT 34 for loss of 1 yardMarshall Thundering Herd 89% → 100% (+11 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
Marshall Thundering Herd won after falling as low as 30% (Q3 1:27).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Marshall Thundering Herd would win 86% of the time (Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 14%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Marshall Thundering Herd. Here is where that came from.
| Middle Tennessee | Points added | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| +0.1 | Passingdropbacks | -2.6 |
| -1.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.4 |
| +1.4 | Explosive plays1 plays · 1 plays | +5.8 |
| -8.1 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -9.9 |
| -6.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +1.8 |
| -0.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -2.6 |
| +8.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 3 · 3 of 3 | +3.4 |
| -6.7 | All plays | -5.4 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 8.1 points to Marshall Thundering Herd. The final margin was 2.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Marshall Thundering Herd closed as the market favourite at 81% and won.
The line moved toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Middle Tennessee +17.5 (-110)
Middle Tennessee +12.5 (-108)
Marshall -711 84%
Marshall -550 81%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Middle Tennessee won 1 and Marshall 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2025 | Marshall 42, Middle Tennessee 28 Marshall won | ||
| Oct 2, 2021 | Marshall 28, Middle Tennessee 34 Middle Tennessee won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders team stats
- Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Oct 28)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Florida International Panthers 23 (Oct 20)
- Delaware Blue Hens 30, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 33 (Oct 13)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
Marshall Thundering Herd
- Marshall Thundering Herd team stats
- Marshall Thundering Herd at Old Dominion Monarchs (Oct 31)
- South Alabama Jaguars 13, Marshall Thundering Herd 20 (Oct 20)
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 27, Marshall Thundering Herd 21 (Oct 10)
- Marshall Thundering Herd 17, James Madison Dukes 45 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on September 12, 2026
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