James Madison Dukes vs Georgia Southern Eagles Final — October 10, 2026
JMUOffense2026 regular season to dateGASO
JMUDefenseGASOJMURecent formGASOJMUHome and roadseason to dateGASOJMULast 10 gamesGASORest & travelrest and travel
JMURest & travelGASOAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
James Madison (4-0) visited Georgia Southern (1-3) on Saturday, October 10 at 7:30 PM ET.
James Madison has the 37th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 15th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has the 79th-ranked offense and the 80th-ranked defense. When James Madison has the ball, a 37th-ranked offense (+0.161 EPA per play) meets a 80th-ranked defense (+0.092 allowed); when Georgia Southern has it, a 79th-ranked offense (+0.038) meets a 15th-ranked defense (−0.131 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the James Madison offense is at 50.0% (35th) and the Georgia Southern offense at 42.7% (107th). James Madison scores 34.2 points per game (26th) and allows 15.8 (15th); Georgia Southern scores 23.2 (80th) and allows 29.8 (90th).
James Madison is 5-0 and 5-0 against the spread; its last game was a 45-17 win over Marshall. Georgia Southern is 2-3 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 31-24 win over Coastal Carolina.
James Madison closed as a 7.5-point road favorite, with Georgia Southern getting the points at home. The spread opened at James Madison -9.5. The total closed at 51.5, down from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (James Madison -290, Georgia Southern +230) prices James Madison at 71% and Georgia Southern at 29%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
James Madison Dukes 27, Georgia Southern Eagles 24
James Madison Dukes won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Georgia Southern Eagles +7.5): Georgia Southern Eagles covered.
- Combined score 51 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- James Madison Dukes closed at -290 on the moneyline (a 71% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Georgia Southern Eagles.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (James Madison Dukes 71%, Georgia Southern Eagles 29%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 2:45 — Georgia Southern Eagles ball, 2nd & 11 at GASO 35Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass intercepted by #23 K.Willis at GASO38, End Of PlayJames Madison Dukes 51% → 61% (+10 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:48 — James Madison Dukes ball, 4th & 1 at JMU 43Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass complete deep right to #0 C.Keller caught at GASO35, for 57 yards to the GASO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:48, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt…James Madison Dukes 77% → 90% (+13 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:20 — Georgia Southern Eagles ball, 2nd & 2 at GASO 42Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete deep right to #5 A.Taylor caught at JMU34, for 24 yards to the JMU34 (#23 K.Willis), 1ST DOWNGeorgia Southern Eagles 35% → 46% (+11 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:47 — Georgia Southern Eagles ball, 4th & 10 at JMU 34#97 B.Ford field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn), clock 00:47, End Of PlayJames Madison Dukes 72% → 88% (+16 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:20 — James Madison Dukes ball, 2nd & 12 at JMU 32Shotgun James Madison rush middle for 2 yards loss to the JMU30, End Of PlayJames Madison Dukes 84% → 100% (+16 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| James Madison | Points added | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| -2.9 | Passingdropbacks | -2.9 |
| -6.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.9 |
| +23.0 | Explosive plays6 plays · 5 plays | +11.2 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -10.5 |
| -3.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.1 |
| +0.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.2 |
| +1.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 2 of 3 | +3.4 |
| +11.5 | All plays | -1.4 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 11.8 points to James Madison Dukes. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
James Madison Dukes closed as the market favourite at 71% and won.
The line moved toward Georgia Southern Eagles before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
James Madison -9.5 (-110)
James Madison -7.5 (-105)
Georgia Southern +287 25%
Georgia Southern +230 29%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts128
- Completion %63.3%108th
- Passing yards980116th
- Yards per attempt7.7112th
- TD–INT10–1
- Rushing yards49715th
- Season line74 carries, 497 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards28991st
- Season line21 catches, 289 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles4035th
- Attempts186
- Completion %65.6%75th
- Passing yards1,22961st
- Yards per attempt6.6182nd
- TD–INT8–1
- Rushing yards227157th
- Season line37 carries, 227 yds
- Receiving yards243141st
- Season line16 catches, 243 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles29192nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | James Madison | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateJames Madison offense vs Georgia Southern defense | 47.8%23rd | 43.9%79th |
| Early-down success rateGeorgia Southern offense vs James Madison defense | 38.0%17th | 39.8%108th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJames Madison offense vs Georgia Southern defense | 40.7%71st | 37.8%54th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateGeorgia Southern offense vs James Madison defense | 39.7%68th | 40.7%72nd |
| Explosive play rateJames Madison offense vs Georgia Southern defense | 6.8%71st | 4.8%19th |
| Explosive play rateGeorgia Southern offense vs James Madison defense | 6.5%64th | 5.4%101st |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 45.9%100th-highest | 60.7%9th-highest |
On 3rd down James Madison converts 40.7% (71st) against a Georgia Southern defense allowing 37.8% (54th).
On 3rd down Georgia Southern converts 40.7% (72nd) against a James Madison defense allowing 39.7% (68th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | James Madison | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Billy Napier | Clay Helton |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 5th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 5–0 | 29–28 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 67–35 | 75–52 |
| Offensive coordinator | Cam Aiken | Ryan Aplin |
| Defensive coordinator | Robert Bala / Josh Linam | Mike Mutz |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: James Madison won 2 and Georgia Southern 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2025 | Georgia Southern 10, James Madison 35 James Madison won | ||
| Oct 19, 2024 | James Madison 14, Georgia Southern 28 Georgia Southern won | ||
| Oct 14, 2023 | Georgia Southern 13, James Madison 41 James Madison won | ||
| Oct 15, 2022 | James Madison 38, Georgia Southern 45 Georgia Southern won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
James Madison Dukes
- James Madison Dukes team stats
- Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes (Oct 29)
- James Madison Dukes 31, Appalachian State Mountaineers 34 (Oct 22)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Marshall Thundering Herd 17, James Madison Dukes 45 (Oct 3)
Georgia Southern Eagles
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results