Marshall Thundering Herd vs James Madison Dukes Final — October 3, 2026
MRSHOffense2026 regular season to dateJMU
MRSHDefenseJMUMRSHLast 10 gamesJMURest & travelrest and travel
MRSHRest & travelJMUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Marshall (2-1) visited James Madison (3-0) on Saturday, October 3 at 3:45 PM ET.
Marshall has the 88th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 106th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, James Madison has the 63rd-ranked offense and the 15th-ranked defense. When Marshall has the ball, a 88th-ranked offense (−0.046 EPA per play) meets a 15th-ranked defense (−0.189 allowed); when James Madison has it, a 63rd-ranked offense (+0.040) meets a 106th-ranked defense (+0.151 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Marshall offense is at 44.2% (56th) and the James Madison offense at 40.4% (96th). Marshall scores 19.3 points per game (98th) and allows 31.7 (100th); James Madison scores 30.7 (46th) and allows 15.3 (15th).
James Madison closed as a 14.5-point favorite at home against Marshall. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 55.5, down from 56.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Marshall +542, James Madison -817) prices Marshall at 15% and James Madison at 85%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Marshall Thundering Herd 17, James Madison Dukes 45
James Madison Dukes won by 28.
- Against the closing spread (James Madison Dukes -14.5): James Madison Dukes covered.
- Combined score 62 vs the closing total of 55.5: Over.
- James Madison Dukes closed at -817 on the moneyline (a 85% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward James Madison Dukes.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Marshall Thundering Herd 15%, James Madison Dukes 85%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 5:40 — James Madison Dukes ball, 3rd & 8 at JMU 47Corey Scott 53 Yd pass from Camden Coleman (Morgan Suarez Kick)James Madison Dukes 70% → 81% (+11 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 2:33 — Marshall Thundering Herd ball, 3rd & 6 at MRSH 24No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Barbie rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MAR28 (#55 R.Lovelace; #15 J.Hooten)Marshall Thundering Herd 16% → 22% (+6 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 9:46 — James Madison Dukes ball, 2nd & 10 at JMU 27No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush right for 73 yards gain to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:46, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel)James Madison Dukes 86% → 93% (+7 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, James Madison Dukes would win >99% of the time (Marshall Thundering Herd <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured James Madison Dukes. Here is where that came from.
| Marshall | Points added | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| -12.3 | Passingdropbacks | +4.0 |
| -0.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -5.8 |
| +10.2 | Explosive plays4 plays · 7 plays | +25.4 |
| -9.5 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -9.9 |
| +2.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.2 |
| -3.0 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -1.7 |
| +0.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 3 of 4 | +9.1 |
| -12.2 | All plays | +18.9 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 16.3 points to James Madison Dukes. The final margin was 28.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
James Madison Dukes closed as the market favourite at 85% and won.
The line moved toward James Madison Dukes before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Marshall +14.5 (-109)
Marshall +14.5 (-108)
James Madison -685 83%
James Madison -817 85%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts96
- Completion %68.8%45th
- Passing yards756142nd
- Yards per attempt7.993rd
- TD–INT5–1
- Rushing yards194150th
- Season line53 carries, 194 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards30045th
- Season line18 catches, 300 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles3524th
- Attempts96
- Completion %62.5%117th
- Passing yards717157th
- Yards per attempt7.5114th
- TD–INT7–1
- Rushing yards29159th
- Season line60 carries, 291 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards185179th
- Season line16 catches, 185 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3432nd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Marshall | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateMarshall offense vs James Madison defense | 40.3%59th | 36.1%26th |
| Early-down success rateJames Madison offense vs Marshall defense | 48.2%133rd | 39.1%79th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateMarshall offense vs James Madison defense | 34.4%99th | 36.2%46th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJames Madison offense vs Marshall defense | 36.7%52nd | 38.1%80th |
| Explosive play rateMarshall offense vs James Madison defense | 4.3%117th | 6.5%64th |
| Explosive play rateJames Madison offense vs Marshall defense | 11.2%136th | 5.5%97th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 43.8%106th-highest | 45.3%100th-highest |
On 3rd down Marshall converts 34.4% (99th) against a James Madison defense allowing 36.2% (46th).
On 3rd down James Madison converts 38.1% (80th) against a Marshall defense allowing 36.7% (52nd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Marshall | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Tony Gibson | Billy Napier |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 8–8 | 4–0 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 8–8 | 66–35 |
| Offensive coordinator | Rod Smith | Cam Aiken |
| Defensive coordinator | Brad Lambert | Robert Bala / Josh Linam |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Marshall won 2 and James Madison 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | James Madison 35, Marshall 23 James Madison won | ||
| Nov 30, 2024 | Marshall 35, James Madison 33 Marshall won | ||
| Oct 19, 2023 | James Madison 20, Marshall 9 James Madison won | ||
| Oct 22, 2022 | Marshall 26, James Madison 12 Marshall won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Marshall Thundering Herd
- Marshall Thundering Herd team stats
- Marshall Thundering Herd at Old Dominion Monarchs (Oct 31)
- South Alabama Jaguars 13, Marshall Thundering Herd 20 (Oct 20)
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 27, Marshall Thundering Herd 21 (Oct 10)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Marshall Thundering Herd 28 (Sep 12)
James Madison Dukes
More NCAAF games on October 3, 2026
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- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
- Michigan Wolverines 14, Minnesota Golden Gophers 20 (Oct 3)
- Alabama Crimson Tide 56, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23 (Oct 3)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26 (Oct 3)
- Boston College Eagles 16, SMU Mustangs 25 (Oct 3)
- Syracuse Orange 42, UConn Huskies 41 (Oct 3)
- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
- Michigan State Spartans 3, Wisconsin Badgers 31 (Oct 3)
- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
- Western Michigan Broncos 20, Buffalo Bulls 17 (Oct 3)
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