Georgia State Panthers vs James Madison Dukes Final — October 17, 2026
GASTOffense2026 regular season to dateJMU
GASTDefenseJMUGASTRecent formJMUGASTHome and roadseason to dateJMUGASTLast 10 gamesJMURest & travelrest and travel
GASTRest & travelJMUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Georgia State (3-1) visited James Madison (5-0) on Saturday, October 17 at 12:00 PM ET.
Georgia State has the 49th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 61st-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, James Madison has the 33rd-ranked offense and the 13th-ranked defense. When Georgia State has the ball, a 49th-ranked offense (+0.115 EPA per play) meets a 13th-ranked defense (−0.111 allowed); when James Madison has it, a 33rd-ranked offense (+0.175) meets a 61st-ranked defense (+0.038 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Georgia State offense is at 49.8% (37th) and the James Madison offense at 50.0% (32nd). Georgia State scores 34.5 points per game (26th) and allows 21.2 (36th); James Madison scores 32.8 (32nd) and allows 17.4 (20th).
Georgia State is 4-1 and 5-0 against the spread; its last game was a 42-10 win over Old Dominion. James Madison is 6-0 and 5-1 against the spread; its last game was a 27-24 win over Georgia Southern.
James Madison closed as a 8.5-point favorite at home against Georgia State. The spread opened at James Madison -11.5. The total closed at 58.5, up from 54.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Georgia State +275, James Madison -350) prices Georgia State at 26% and James Madison at 74%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49
James Madison Dukes won by 27.
- Against the closing spread (James Madison Dukes -8.5): James Madison Dukes covered.
- Combined score 71 vs the closing total of 58.5: Over.
- James Madison Dukes closed at -350 on the moneyline (a 74% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Georgia State Panthers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Georgia State Panthers 26%, James Madison Dukes 74%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 5:38 — James Madison Dukes ball, 3rd & 6 at GAST 20Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass complete short middle to #17 M.Scott caught at GSU16, for 20 yards to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:38, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attem…James Madison Dukes 78% → 83% (+6 pts) · Drive 3 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Georgia State | Points added | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| +3.3 | Passingdropbacks | -10.1 |
| +2.6 | Rushingdesigned runs | +7.3 |
| +6.5 | Explosive plays2 plays · 6 plays | +13.7 |
| -4.1 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -1.8 |
| -2.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -6.3 |
| -0.9 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -0.3 |
| +6.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 6 of 6 | +9.4 |
| +11.2 | All plays | +11.9 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 13.3 points to Georgia State Panthers. The final margin was 27.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
James Madison Dukes closed as the market favourite at 74% and won.
The line moved toward Georgia State Panthers before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Georgia State +11.5 (-110)
Georgia State +8.5 (-110)
James Madison -450 78%
James Madison -350 74%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts131
- Completion %67.9%42nd
- Passing yards1,157107th
- Yards per attempt8.843rd
- TD–INT12–4
- Rushing yards36176th
- Season line69 carries, 361 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards276146th
- Season line18 catches, 276 yds, 6 TD
- Tackles29344th
- Attempts155
- Completion %62.6%123rd
- Passing yards1,151109th
- Yards per attempt7.4124th
- TD–INT11–1
- Rushing yards64810th
- Season line95 carries, 648 yds, 6 TD
- Receiving yards289136th
- Season line21 catches, 289 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles4643rd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Georgia State | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateGeorgia State offense vs James Madison defense | 44.4%54th | 37.7%14th |
| Early-down success rateJames Madison offense vs Georgia State defense | 47.2%115th | 47.0%26th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateGeorgia State offense vs James Madison defense | 51.1%15th | 40.5%73rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateJames Madison offense vs Georgia State defense | 29.5%8th | 40.6%73rd |
| Explosive play rateGeorgia State offense vs James Madison defense | 10.5%5th | 7.0%76th |
| Explosive play rateJames Madison offense vs Georgia State defense | 7.5%94th | 7.0%63rd |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 44.8%105th-highest | 45.0%104th-highest |
On 3rd down Georgia State converts 51.1% (15th) against a James Madison defense allowing 40.5% (73rd).
On 3rd down James Madison converts 40.6% (73rd) against a Georgia State defense allowing 29.5% (8th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Georgia State | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dell McGee | Billy Napier |
| Tenureat this school | 3rd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 8–21 | 6–0 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 8–21 | 68–35 |
| Offensive coordinator | Hue Jackson | Cam Aiken |
| Defensive coordinator | Cam Clark / John Haneline | Robert Bala / Josh Linam |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Georgia State won 0 and James Madison 4.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | James Madison 14, Georgia State 7 James Madison won | ||
| Nov 9, 2024 | Georgia State 7, James Madison 38 James Madison won | ||
| Nov 4, 2023 | James Madison 42, Georgia State 14 James Madison won | ||
| Nov 19, 2022 | Georgia State 40, James Madison 42 James Madison won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Georgia State Panthers
- Georgia State Panthers team stats
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Georgia State Panthers (Oct 31)
- Georgia State Panthers 32, Arkansas State Red Wolves 38 (Oct 24)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Georgia State Panthers 42 (Oct 3)
James Madison Dukes
- James Madison Dukes team stats
- Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes (Oct 29)
- James Madison Dukes 31, Appalachian State Mountaineers 34 (Oct 22)
- James Madison Dukes 27, Georgia Southern Eagles 24 (Oct 10)
- Marshall Thundering Herd 17, James Madison Dukes 45 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
- Charlotte 49ers 38, Temple Owls 31 (Oct 17)
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