Old Dominion Monarchs vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Final — October 10, 2026
ODUOffense2026 regular season to dateAPP
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2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Old Dominion (0-4) visited App State (2-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 1:00 PM ET.
Old Dominion has the 137th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 69th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, App State has the 59th-ranked offense and the 99th-ranked defense. When Old Dominion has the ball, a 137th-ranked offense (−0.356 EPA per play) meets a 99th-ranked defense (+0.152 allowed); when App State has it, a 59th-ranked offense (+0.091) meets a 69th-ranked defense (+0.061 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Old Dominion offense is at 34.3% (137th) and the App State offense at 47.3% (62nd). Old Dominion scores 17.0 points per game (115th) and allows 38.0 (123rd); App State scores 28.0 (56th) and allows 28.7 (81st).
Old Dominion is 1-4 and 0-5 against the spread; its last game was a 42-10 loss to Georgia State. App State is 3-1 and 3-1 against the spread; its last game was a 41-31 loss to NC State.
App State closed as a 9.5-point favorite at home against Old Dominion. The spread opened at App State -6.5. The total closed at 45.5, down from 51.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Old Dominion +280, App State -360) prices Old Dominion at 25% and App State at 75%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3
Old Dominion Monarchs won by 7.
- Against the closing spread (Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5): Old Dominion Monarchs covered.
- Combined score 13 vs the closing total of 45.5: Under.
- Old Dominion Monarchs closed at +280 on the moneyline (a 25% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Appalachian State Mountaineers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Old Dominion Monarchs 25%, Appalachian State Mountaineers 75%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 3:57 — Old Dominion Monarchs ball, 4th & 3 at APP 32No Huddle-Shotgun #10 Q.Henicle pass incomplete deep right to #11 T.Johnson thrown to APP01 QB hurried by #15 A.Mitchell, TURNOVER ON DOWNSAppalachian State Mountaineers 66% → 74% (+9 pts) · Drive 19 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 12:38 — Old Dominion Monarchs ball, 3rd & 6 at ODU 39No Huddle-Shotgun #10 Q.Henicle pass complete short right to #7 K.Harris caught at APP48, for 17 yards to the APP44 (#7 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWNOld Dominion Monarchs 33% → 43% (+10 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 11:26 — Old Dominion Monarchs ball, 3rd & 3 at APP 37Shotgun #3 D.Roche rush middle for 32 yards gain to the APP05 (#1 J.McBurrows), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNOld Dominion Monarchs 43% → 59% (+16 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 9:30 — Old Dominion Monarchs ball, 3rd & 2 at APP 2No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.James rush middle for 2 yards gain to the APP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:30 #8 J.Rodriguez pass attempt SuccessfulOld Dominion Monarchs 56% → 70% (+14 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:44 — Appalachian State Mountaineers ball, 3rd & 14 at APP 45No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Singleton rush right for 8 yards gain to the ODU47 fumbled by #3 M.Singleton at ODU46 forced by #29 T.Murray Jr. recovered by ODU #29 T.Mu…Old Dominion Monarchs 84% → 92% (+7 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
Old Dominion Monarchs won after falling as low as 18% (Q1 12:22).
Game DNA
| Old Dominion | Points added | App State |
|---|---|---|
| -4.9 | Passingdropbacks | -27.2 |
| -3.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | -1.0 |
| +4.0 | Explosive plays2 plays · 2 plays | +2.0 |
| -1.7 | Turnovers3 giveaways · 3 giveaways | -4.6 |
| -4.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.6 |
| -0.3 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -3.4 |
| +0.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 0 of 1 | +0.0 |
| -10.3 | All plays | -34.6 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 22.3 points to Old Dominion Monarchs. The final margin was 7.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Appalachian State Mountaineers closed as the market favourite at 75% and lost.
The line moved toward Appalachian State Mountaineers before kickoff, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Old Dominion +6.5 (-110)
Old Dominion +9.5 (-110)
App State -297 72%
App State -360 75%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts68
- Completion %55.9%213th
- Passing yards467248th
- Yards per attempt6.9163rd
- TD–INT3–2
- Rushing yards247133rd
- Season line57 carries, 247 yds
- Receiving yards163305th
- Season line12 catches, 163 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles3674th
- Attempts132
- Completion %72.7%13th
- Passing yards1,20669th
- Yards per attempt9.133rd
- TD–INT7–1
- Rushing yards220160th
- Season line47 carries, 220 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards32662nd
- Season line20 catches, 326 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles23375th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Old Dominion | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateOld Dominion offense vs App State defense | 33.3%136th | 44.7%87th |
| Early-down success rateApp State offense vs Old Dominion defense | 47.1%110th | 41.4%92nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOld Dominion offense vs App State defense | 28.9%121st | 35.9%40th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateApp State offense vs Old Dominion defense | 40.9%78th | 42.2%63rd |
| Explosive play rateOld Dominion offense vs App State defense | 6.1%90th | 3.9%5th |
| Explosive play rateApp State offense vs Old Dominion defense | 7.2%86th | 7.2%56th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 54.2%38th-highest | 54.6%36th-highest |
On 3rd down Old Dominion converts 28.9% (121st) against a App State defense allowing 35.9% (40th).
On 3rd down App State converts 42.2% (63rd) against a Old Dominion defense allowing 40.9% (78th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Old Dominion | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Ricky Rahne | Dowell Loggains |
| Tenureat this school | 7th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 31–36 | 8–9 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 31–36 | 8–9 |
| Offensive coordinator | Kody Cook / Alex Huettel | Mike Anthony |
| Defensive coordinator | Blake Seiler | D. J. Smith |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Old Dominion won 2 and App State 2.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | App State 21, Old Dominion 24 Old Dominion won | ||
| Nov 2, 2024 | Old Dominion 20, App State 28 App State won | ||
| Oct 21, 2023 | App State 21, Old Dominion 28 Old Dominion won | ||
| Nov 19, 2022 | Old Dominion 14, App State 27 App State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Old Dominion Monarchs
- Old Dominion Monarchs team stats
- Marshall Thundering Herd at Old Dominion Monarchs (Oct 31)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 0, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 26 (Oct 24)
- Georgia Southern Eagles 23, Old Dominion Monarchs 15 (Oct 15)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Georgia State Panthers 42 (Oct 3)
Appalachian State Mountaineers
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
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- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
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- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
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