Baylor Bears vs UCF Knights Preview & Odds — October 30, 2026
BAYOffense2026 regular season to dateUCF
BAYDefenseUCFBAYRecent formUCFBAYHome and roadseason to dateUCFBAYLast 10 gamesUCFRest & travelrest and travel
BAYRest & travelUCFAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 7 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Matchup preview
Baylor (3-3) visits UCF (3-3) on Friday, October 30 at 7:30 PM ET.
Baylor has the 117th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 12th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UCF has the 103rd-ranked offense and the 70th-ranked defense. When Baylor has the ball, a 117th-ranked offense (−0.068 EPA per play) meets a 70th-ranked defense (+0.074 allowed); when UCF has it, a 103rd-ranked offense (−0.024) meets a 12th-ranked defense (−0.095 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Baylor offense is at 41.8% (124th) and the UCF offense at 43.5% (104th). Baylor scores 26.7 points per game (62nd) and allows 18.3 (22nd); UCF scores 26.0 (66th) and allows 25.8 (69th).
Baylor is 4-3 and 5-2 against the spread; its last game was a 25-24 loss to Kansas. UCF is 4-3 and 5-2 against the spread; its last game was a 39-31 win over BYU.
UCF is a 1.5-point favorite at home against Baylor. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 48.5, down from 49.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Baylor -102, UCF -120) prices Baylor at 48% and UCF at 52%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Baylor +1.5 (-105)
Baylor +1.5 (-112)
UCF -131 54%
UCF -120 52%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 28
- Baylor +1.5-110BetMGM
- UCF -1.5+104Novig
- Over 48.5+108Kalshi
- Under 48.5-110theScore Bet
- Baylor+102Novig
- UCF-106Novig
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts206
- Completion %51.0%
- Passing yards1,229
- Yards per attempt6.0
- TD–INT9–4
- Rushing yards331165th
- Season line94 carries, 331 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards67814th
- Season line58 catches, 678 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles51124th
- Attempts159
- Completion %67.9%34th
- Passing yards1,099189th
- Yards per attempt6.9163rd
- TD–INT11–3
- Rushing yards57743rd
- Season line85 carries, 577 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards358136th
- Season line34 catches, 358 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles42258th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 264 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 28, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Baylor | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBaylor offense vs UCF defense | 38.2%126th | 43.2%71st |
| Early-down success rateUCF offense vs Baylor defense | 41.4%41st | 39.4%116th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBaylor offense vs UCF defense | 38.9%83rd | 45.1%106th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUCF offense vs Baylor defense | 37.2%43rd | 41.8%56th |
| Explosive play rateBaylor offense vs UCF defense | 7.4%43rd | 6.9%73rd |
| Explosive play rateUCF offense vs Baylor defense | 6.0%46th | 5.8%106th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 55.8%20th-highest | 51.6%61st-highest |
On 3rd down Baylor converts 38.9% (83rd) against a UCF defense allowing 45.1% (106th).
On 3rd down UCF converts 41.8% (56th) against a Baylor defense allowing 37.2% (43rd).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Baylor | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Joe Klanderman (interim) (interim) | Scott Frost |
| Tenureat this school | 1st season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 0–0 | 28–17 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 0–0 | 44–48 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jake Spavital | Steve Cooper |
| Defensive coordinator | Joe Klanderman | Alex Grinch |
Staff list as of October 27, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Baylor won 2 and UCF 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | UCF 3, Baylor 30 Baylor won | ||
| Sep 30, 2023 | Baylor 36, UCF 35 Baylor won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Baylor Bears
- Baylor Bears team stats
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- TCU Horned Frogs 17, Baylor Bears 6 (Oct 17)
- Baylor Bears 55, Arizona State Sun Devils 19 (Oct 3)
UCF Knights
More NCAAF games on October 30, 2026
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