BYU Cougars vs UCF Knights Final — October 24, 2026
BYUOffense2026 regular season to dateUCF
BYUDefenseUCFBYURecent formUCFBYUHome and roadseason to dateUCFBYULast 10 gamesUCFRest & travelrest and travel
BYURest & travelUCFAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
BYU (5-0) visited UCF (2-3) on Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 PM ET.
BYU has the 9th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 37th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, UCF has the 116th-ranked offense and the 65th-ranked defense. When BYU has the ball, a 9th-ranked offense (+0.276 EPA per play) meets a 65th-ranked defense (+0.056 allowed); when UCF has it, a 116th-ranked offense (−0.066) meets a 37th-ranked defense (−0.031 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the BYU offense is at 51.6% (21st) and the UCF offense at 42.0% (119th). BYU scores 27.6 points per game (59th) and allows 16.8 (15th); UCF scores 23.4 (84th) and allows 24.8 (61st).
BYU is 6-0 and 6-0 against the spread; its last game was a 28-24 win over Notre Dame. UCF is 3-3 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 42-28 loss to Oklahoma State.
BYU closed as a 7.5-point road favorite, with UCF getting the points at home. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 43.5, down from 45.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (BYU -307, UCF +246) prices BYU at 72% and UCF at 28%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
BYU Cougars 31, UCF Knights 39
UCF Knights won by 8.
- Against the closing spread (UCF Knights +7.5): UCF Knights covered.
- Combined score 70 vs the closing total of 43.5: Over.
- UCF Knights closed at +246 on the moneyline (a 28% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (BYU Cougars 72%, UCF Knights 28%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 1:42 — UCF Knights ball, 4th & 1 at BYU 1No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU01 (#94 A.Purcell), TURNOVER ON DOWNSBYU Cougars 20% → 51% (+31 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:10 — UCF Knights ball, 3rd & 10 at BYU 28#15 W.Stone field goal attempt from 46 yards NO GOOD blocked by #11 F.Satuala (H: #97 M.Denaburg, LS: #44 K.Hicks), clock 00:00 recovered by UCF #15 W.Stone at B…BYU Cougars 29% → 56% (+28 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — BYU Cougars ball, 3rd & 13 at UCF 25No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #7 W.Lyons thrown to UCF19 broken up by #7 A.JacksonBYU Cougars 39% → 87% (+49 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — UCF Knights ball, 1st & 10 at BYU 25No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete deep left to #5 J.Derry caught at BYU00, for 25 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN #15 W.Stone kic…UCF Knights 30% → 70% (+40 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- OT — UCF Knights ball, 2nd & 4 at BYU 25No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #7 D.Thomas Jr. caught at BYU26, for 4 yards to the BYU21 (#4 C.Uluave; #45 V.Po'uha)UCF Knights 61% → 87% (+26 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
UCF Knights won after falling as low as 14% (Q1 5:43).
Game DNA
| BYU | Points added | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| +3.3 | Passingdropbacks | -0.8 |
| -1.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.1 |
| +8.0 | Explosive plays4 plays · 5 plays | +12.3 |
| -2.3 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -0.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.2 |
| +0.8 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | -4.0 |
| +2.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 3 · 4 of 6 | +0.7 |
| +10.3 | All plays | +3.9 |
The biggest single gap: penalties, worth about 4.8 points to BYU Cougars. The final margin was 8.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
BYU Cougars closed as the market favourite at 72% and lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
BYU -7.5 (-107)
BYU -7.5 (-110)
UCF +245 28%
UCF +246 28%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts152
- Completion %65.8%66th
- Passing yards1,257127th
- Yards per attempt8.360th
- TD–INT9–2
- Rushing yards344125th
- Season line44 carries, 344 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards44455th
- Season line24 catches, 444 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles35292nd
- Attempts118
- Completion %70.3%17th
- Passing yards806218th
- Yards per attempt6.8169th
- TD–INT8–3
- Rushing yards48348th
- Season line70 carries, 483 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards304162nd
- Season line28 catches, 304 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles39208th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | BYU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBYU offense vs UCF defense | 44.0%60th | 44.4%91st |
| Early-down success rateUCF offense vs BYU defense | 42.3%53rd | 39.5%110th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBYU offense vs UCF defense | 52.7%11th | 44.6%105th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUCF offense vs BYU defense | 37.3%48th | 37.1%92nd |
| Explosive play rateBYU offense vs UCF defense | 7.7%41st | 6.5%58th |
| Explosive play rateUCF offense vs BYU defense | 5.5%33rd | 5.4%110th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 46.3%104th-highest | 51.7%63rd-highest |
On 3rd down BYU converts 52.7% (11th) against a UCF defense allowing 44.6% (105th).
On 3rd down UCF converts 37.1% (92nd) against a BYU defense allowing 37.3% (48th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | BYU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kalani Sitake | Scott Frost |
| Tenureat this school | 11th season | 2nd season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 90–45 | 27–17 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 90–45 | 43–48 |
| Offensive coordinator | Aaron Roderick | Steve Cooper |
| Defensive coordinator | Kelly Poppinga | Alex Grinch |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: BYU won 2 and UCF 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | UCF 21, BYU 41 BYU won | ||
| Oct 26, 2024 | BYU 37, UCF 24 BYU won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
BYU Cougars
- BYU Cougars team stats
- Arizona State Sun Devils at BYU Cougars (Oct 31)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 24, BYU Cougars 28 (Oct 17)
- Iowa State Cyclones 10, BYU Cougars 24 (Oct 9)
- BYU Cougars 17, TCU Horned Frogs 10 (Oct 3)
UCF Knights
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
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