Baylor Bears vs Arizona State Sun Devils Final — October 3, 2026
BAYOffense2026 regular season to dateASU
BAYDefenseASUBAYLast 10 gamesASURest & travelrest and travel
BAYRest & travelASUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 4 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Baylor (2-1) visited Arizona State (1-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 10:30 PM ET.
Baylor has the 114th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 11th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Arizona State has the 132nd-ranked offense and the 4th-ranked defense. When Baylor has the ball, a 114th-ranked offense (−0.156 EPA per play) meets a 4th-ranked defense (−0.278 allowed); when Arizona State has it, a 132nd-ranked offense (−0.310) meets a 11th-ranked defense (−0.200 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Baylor offense is at 37.6% (124th) and the Arizona State offense at 37.9% (119th). Baylor scores 25.0 points per game (74th) and allows 16.3 (19th); Arizona State scores 22.0 (82nd) and allows 32.5 (106th).
Arizona State is 1-1 and 1-1 against the spread; its last game was a 48-20 loss to Texas A&M.
Arizona State closed as a 3.5-point favorite at home against Baylor. The spread opened at Arizona State -4.5. The total closed at 49.5, down from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Baylor +145, Arizona State -175) prices Baylor at 39% and Arizona State at 61%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Baylor Bears 55, Arizona State Sun Devils 19
Baylor Bears won by 36.
- Against the closing spread (Arizona State Sun Devils -3.5): Baylor Bears covered.
- Combined score 74 vs the closing total of 49.5: Over.
- Baylor Bears closed at +145 on the moneyline (a 39% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Baylor Bears.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Baylor Bears 39%, Arizona State Sun Devils 61%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 9:13 — Baylor Bears ball, 1st & 10 at BAY 37No Huddle-Shotgun #25 R.Morris rush left for 63 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:13, 1ST DOWN #98 R.Armstrong kick attempt good (H: #94 P.Williams, LS…Baylor Bears 38% → 50% (+12 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 6:11 — Arizona State Sun Devils ball, 3rd & 7 at BAY 35No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #4 O.Miller caught at BAY29, for 7 yards to the BAY28 fumbled by #4 O.Miller at BAY29 forced by #17 T.T…Baylor Bears 48% → 57% (+9 pts) · Drive 5 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:51 — Arizona State Sun Devils ball, 2nd & 12 at BAY 30No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete deep middle to #4 O.Miller caught at BAY00, for 30 yards to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:51, 1ST DOWN #32 C.Smith kic…Arizona State Sun Devils 18% → 29% (+11 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:11 — Baylor Bears ball, 3rd & 9 at ASU 45No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete deep left to #6 G.Freeman caught at ASU23, for 27 yards to the ASU18 (#1 A.Stamps), 1ST DOWNBaylor Bears 72% → 80% (+8 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 13:04 — Baylor Bears ball, 2nd & 11 at BAY 34No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete deep left to #6 G.Freeman caught at ASU38, for 31 yards to the ASU35 (#7 M.Warren), 1ST DOWNBaylor Bears 80% → 86% (+6 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
Baylor Bears won after falling as low as 33% (Q1 10:01).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Baylor Bears would win >99% of the time (Arizona State Sun Devils <1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Baylor Bears. Here is where that came from.
| Baylor | Points added | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | Passingdropbacks | -6.0 |
| -6.3 | Rushingdesigned runs | +6.7 |
| +20.0 | Explosive plays8 plays · 5 plays | +13.3 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -9.4 |
| +4.7 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +8.5 |
| +0.1 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.5 |
| +3.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 5 of 8 · 0 of 3 | -8.4 |
| +21.5 | All plays | +6.2 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 12.9 points to Arizona State Sun Devils. The final margin was 36.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Arizona State Sun Devils closed as the market favourite at 61% and lost.
The line moved toward Baylor Bears before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Baylor +4.5 (-110)
Baylor +3.5 (-114)
Arizona State -190 63%
Arizona State -175 61%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts93
- Completion %49.5%234th
- Passing yards554205th
- Yards per attempt6.0208th
- TD–INT4–2
- Rushing yards28762nd
- Season line73 carries, 287 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards36422nd
- Season line35 catches, 364 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles27121st
- Attempts84
- Completion %63.1%110th
- Passing yards736149th
- Yards per attempt8.850th
- TD–INT9–2
- Rushing yards227104th
- Season line43 carries, 227 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards37416th
- Season line19 catches, 374 yds, 5 TD
- Tackles24186th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 241 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 2, 5:47 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Baylor | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBaylor offense vs Arizona State defense | 35.8%113th | 37.9%45th |
| Early-down success rateArizona State offense vs Baylor defense | 38.9%64th | 39.8%66th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBaylor offense vs Arizona State defense | 36.7%89th | 29.6%11th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateArizona State offense vs Baylor defense | 39.6%70th | 26.9%126th |
| Explosive play rateBaylor offense vs Arizona State defense | 7.3%59th | 4.8%22nd |
| Explosive play rateArizona State offense vs Baylor defense | 5.2%30th | 7.4%56th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 50.9%67th-highest | 46.3%94th-highest |
On 3rd down Baylor converts 36.7% (89th) against a Arizona State defense allowing 29.6% (11th).
On 3rd down Arizona State converts 26.9% (126th) against a Baylor defense allowing 39.6% (70th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Baylor | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dave Aranda | Kenny Dillingham |
| Tenureat this school | 7th season | 4th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 39–38 | 24–17 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 39–38 | 24–17 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jake Spavital | Marcus Arroyo |
| Defensive coordinator | Joe Klanderman | Brian Ward |
Staff list as of October 2, 5:43 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 1 time since 2021: Baylor won 0 and Arizona State 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2025 | Arizona State 27, Baylor 24 Arizona State won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Baylor Bears
- Baylor Bears team stats
- Baylor Bears at UCF Knights (Oct 30)
- Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25 (Oct 24)
- TCU Horned Frogs 17, Baylor Bears 6 (Oct 17)
- Baylor Bears 16, Auburn Tigers 17 (Sep 5)
Arizona State Sun Devils
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- Stanford Cardinal 3, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57 (Oct 3)
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- Vanderbilt Commodores 14, Georgia Bulldogs 38 (Oct 3)
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