TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears Final — October 17, 2026
TCUOffense2026 regular season to dateBAY
TCUDefenseBAYTCURecent formBAYTCUHome and roadseason to dateBAYTCULast 10 gamesBAYRest & travelrest and travel
TCURest & travelBAYAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
TCU (1-3) visited Baylor (3-1) on Saturday, October 17 at 7:00 PM ET.
TCU has the 82nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 44th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Baylor has the 97th-ranked offense and the 16th-ranked defense. When TCU has the ball, a 82nd-ranked offense (+0.026 EPA per play) meets a 16th-ranked defense (−0.096 allowed); when Baylor has it, a 97th-ranked offense (−0.016) meets a 44th-ranked defense (−0.014 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the TCU offense is at 45.3% (85th) and the Baylor offense at 43.6% (99th). TCU scores 16.0 points per game (123rd) and allows 15.0 (9th); Baylor scores 32.5 (36th) and allows 17.0 (18th).
TCU is 1-3; its last game was a 17-10 loss to BYU. Baylor is 4-1 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 55-19 win over Arizona State.
Baylor closed as a 4-point favorite at home against TCU. The spread opened at Baylor -6.5. The total closed at 50.5, down from 52.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (TCU +154, Baylor -187) prices TCU at 38% and Baylor at 62%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
TCU Horned Frogs 17, Baylor Bears 6
TCU Horned Frogs won by 11.
- Against the closing spread (Baylor Bears -4): TCU Horned Frogs covered.
- Combined score 23 vs the closing total of 50.5: Under.
- TCU Horned Frogs closed at +154 on the moneyline (a 38% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 5 points toward TCU Horned Frogs.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (TCU Horned Frogs 38%, Baylor Bears 62%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 6:14 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 3rd & 14 at BAY 25No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #18 E.Small caught at BAYLOR09, for 25 yards to the BAYLOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:14, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McC…TCU Horned Frogs 46% → 58% (+12 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 2:24 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 1st & 10 at BAY 44No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass intercepted by #24 M.Gifford at BAYLOR40 #24 M.Gifford return 6 yards to the BAYLOR46 (#2 J.Denman), out of boundsBaylor Bears 46% → 61% (+15 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:36 — Baylor Bears ball, 1st & 10 at TCU 41No Huddle-Shotgun #25 R.Morris rush right for 0 yards to the TCU41 fumbled by #25 R.Morris at TCU40 forced by #6 K.Jackson recovered by TCU #6 K.Jackson at TCU41…TCU Horned Frogs 37% → 51% (+14 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 14:35 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 2nd & 10 at TCU 25Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at BAYLOR32, for 67 yards to the BAYLOR08 (#5 T.Barnes), 1ST DOWNTCU Horned Frogs 44% → 61% (+17 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 4:04 — TCU Horned Frogs ball, 3rd & 11 at TCU 10No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at BAYLOR50, for 42 yards to the BAYLOR48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BAYLOR Pass I…TCU Horned Frogs 80% → 88% (+9 pts) · Drive 18 in Drive X-Ray
TCU Horned Frogs won after falling as low as 36% (Q1 14:31).
Game DNA
| TCU | Points added | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| -9.8 | Passingdropbacks | -4.7 |
| -2.8 | Rushingdesigned runs | -8.8 |
| +15.9 | Explosive plays4 plays · 3 plays | +4.9 |
| -4.8 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -7.0 |
| -1.3 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.3 |
| -2.5 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.1 |
| -1.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 1 of 2 · 0 of 3 | -0.5 |
| -7.2 | All plays | -15.4 |
The biggest single gap: explosive plays, worth about 11.0 points to TCU Horned Frogs. The final margin was 11.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Baylor Bears closed as the market favourite at 62% and lost.
The line moved toward TCU Horned Frogs before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
TCU +6.5 (-112)
TCU +4 (-110)
Baylor -235 67%
Baylor -187 62%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts157
- Completion %68.8%31st
- Passing yards1,40063rd
- Yards per attempt8.941st
- TD–INT8–4
- Rushing yards43247th
- Season line87 carries, 432 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards40345th
- Season line28 catches, 403 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles27411th
- Attempts126
- Completion %53.2%
- Passing yards781
- Yards per attempt6.2
- TD–INT8–2
- Rushing yards316110th
- Season line81 carries, 316 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards47918th
- Season line42 catches, 479 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles33224th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 259 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 14, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | TCU | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateTCU offense vs Baylor defense | 42.5%79th | 44.2%84th |
| Early-down success rateBaylor offense vs TCU defense | 41.8%50th | 40.2%104th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateTCU offense vs Baylor defense | 43.1%55th | 39.0%65th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBaylor offense vs TCU defense | 37.5%55th | 43.3%52nd |
| Explosive play rateTCU offense vs Baylor defense | 7.5%47th | 5.7%32nd |
| Explosive play rateBaylor offense vs TCU defense | 4.1%6th | 8.5%28th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 52.8%51st-highest | 53.9%39th-highest |
On 3rd down TCU converts 43.1% (55th) against a Baylor defense allowing 39.0% (65th).
On 3rd down Baylor converts 43.3% (52nd) against a TCU defense allowing 37.5% (55th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | TCU | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sonny Dykes | Dave Aranda |
| Tenureat this school | 5th season | 7th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 38–20 | 40–38 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 109–83 | 40–38 |
| Offensive coordinator | A. J. Ricker / Gordon Sammis | Jake Spavital |
| Defensive coordinator | Andy Avalos | Joe Klanderman |
Staff list as of October 13, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2021: TCU won 4 and Baylor 1.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Baylor 36, TCU 42 TCU won | ||
| Nov 2, 2024 | TCU 34, Baylor 37 Baylor won | ||
| Nov 18, 2023 | Baylor 17, TCU 42 TCU won | ||
| Nov 19, 2022 | TCU 29, Baylor 28 TCU won | ||
| Nov 6, 2021 | Baylor 28, TCU 30 TCU won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
TCU Horned Frogs
- TCU Horned Frogs team stats
- Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs (Oct 31)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- BYU Cougars 17, TCU Horned Frogs 10 (Oct 3)
- TCU Horned Frogs 13, UCF Knights 21 (Sep 26)
Baylor Bears
More NCAAF games on October 17, 2026
- Florida Atlantic Owls 24, Army Black Knights 56 (Oct 17)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 21, Boston College Eagles 27 (Oct 17)
- Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31 (Oct 17)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers 0, Clemson Tigers 37 (Oct 17)
- Ohio State Buckeyes 19, Indiana Hoosiers 15 (Oct 17)
- Georgia State Panthers 22, James Madison Dukes 49 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31 (Oct 17)
- Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21 (Oct 17)
- Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23 (Oct 17)
- Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 (Oct 17)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 42, West Virginia Mountaineers 45 (Oct 17)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 37, Maryland Terrapins 30 (Oct 17)
- UMass Minutemen 18, Buffalo Bulls 25 (Oct 17)
Dig deeper
Follow the market every day
See every game's current line on the odds board, or check our fully tracked results.
Odds boardTracked results