UCF Knights vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Final — October 10, 2026
UCFOffense2026 regular season to dateOKST
UCFDefenseOKSTUCFRecent formOKSTUCFHome and roadseason to dateOKSTUCFLast 10 gamesOKSTRest & travelrest and travel
UCFRest & travelOKSTAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 5 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
UCF (2-2) visited Oklahoma State (2-1) on Saturday, October 10 at 12:00 PM ET.
UCF has the 114th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 50th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has the 90th-ranked offense and the 40th-ranked defense. When UCF has the ball, a 114th-ranked offense (−0.087 EPA per play) meets a 40th-ranked defense (−0.025 allowed); when Oklahoma State has it, a 90th-ranked offense (+0.014) meets a 50th-ranked defense (+0.013 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the UCF offense is at 39.2% (132nd) and the Oklahoma State offense at 46.6% (72nd). UCF scores 22.2 points per game (86th) and allows 20.5 (35th); Oklahoma State scores 30.0 (51st) and allows 26.3 (71st).
UCF is 3-2 and 4-1 against the spread; its last game was a 27-17 loss to Houston. Oklahoma State is 3-1; its last game was a 41-24 win over West Virginia.
Oklahoma State closed as a 10.5-point favorite at home against UCF. The spread opened at Oklahoma State -9.5. The total closed at 53.5, up from 52 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (UCF +328, Oklahoma State -435) prices UCF at 22% and Oklahoma State at 78%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
UCF Knights 28, Oklahoma State Cowboys 42
Oklahoma State Cowboys won by 14.
- Against the closing spread (Oklahoma State Cowboys -10.5): Oklahoma State Cowboys covered.
- Combined score 70 vs the closing total of 53.5: Over.
- Oklahoma State Cowboys closed at -435 on the moneyline (a 78% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (UCF Knights 22%, Oklahoma State Cowboys 78%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 1:50 — UCF Knights ball, 3rd & 6 at UCF 29Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #5 J.Derry caught at UCF32, for 12 yards to the UCF41, out of bounds at UCF41, 1ST DOWNUCF Knights 13% → 27% (+14 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 1:39 — UCF Knights ball, 1st & 10 at UCF 41Shotgun #26 D.Watson rush left for 7 yards gain to the UCF48 (#95 J.Johnson)Oklahoma State Cowboys 66% → 86% (+20 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 11:03 — UCF Knights ball, 4th & 15 at UCF 42#49 A.Bertrams punt 43 yards to the OSU15 fair catch by #36 B.Deal Jr. at OSU15UCF Knights 18% → 27% (+9 pts) · Drive 12 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 10:18 — Oklahoma State Cowboys ball, 2nd & 7 at OKST 18No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete deep left to #1 M.Coleman caught at OSU38, for 48 yards to the UCF34 (#7 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNOklahoma State Cowboys 70% → 79% (+9 pts) · Drive 13 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 10:32 — UCF Knights ball, 2nd & 8 at UCF 39No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Jenkins rush left for 11 yards loss to the UCF28 fumbled by #12 K.Jenkins at UCF34 recovered by OSU #1 E.Jackson at UCF28 #1 E.Jackson re…Oklahoma State Cowboys 84% → 97% (+13 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| UCF | Points added | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| +9.8 | Passingdropbacks | +2.9 |
| -8.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | +4.3 |
| +2.5 | Explosive plays2 plays · 6 plays | +11.4 |
| -9.8 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -6.1 |
| -3.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -0.0 |
| +0.6 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +0.6 |
| +5.7 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 4 · 4 of 5 | +2.2 |
| -3.6 | All plays | +15.2 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 13.2 points to Oklahoma State Cowboys. The final margin was 14.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Oklahoma State Cowboys closed as the market favourite at 78% and won.
The line moved toward Oklahoma State Cowboys before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
UCF +9.5 (-110)
UCF +10.5 (-111)
Oklahoma State -360 75%
Oklahoma State -435 78%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts76
- Completion %69.7%30th
- Passing yards541237th
- Yards per attempt7.1142nd
- TD–INT4–2
- Rushing yards40432nd
- Season line49 carries, 404 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving yards220177th
- Season line17 catches, 220 yds, 1 TD
- Tackles33115th
- Attempts141
- Completion %67.4%52nd
- Passing yards1,27155th
- Yards per attempt9.038th
- TD–INT11–5
- Rushing yards44125th
- Season line83 carries, 441 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving yards41024th
- Season line22 catches, 410 yds, 3 TD
- Tackles3674th
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 256 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 7, 5:35 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | UCF | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateUCF offense vs Oklahoma State defense | 38.0%122nd | 40.4%34th |
| Early-down success rateOklahoma State offense vs UCF defense | 42.7%61st | 47.8%22nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateUCF offense vs Oklahoma State defense | 34.8%98th | 36.4%41st |
| 3rd-down conversion rateOklahoma State offense vs UCF defense | 44.6%108th | 32.6%108th |
| Explosive play rateUCF offense vs Oklahoma State defense | 6.0%92nd | 7.4%90th |
| Explosive play rateOklahoma State offense vs UCF defense | 5.8%40th | 9.3%14th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 51.2%66th-highest | 51.3%65th-highest |
On 3rd down UCF converts 34.8% (98th) against a Oklahoma State defense allowing 36.4% (41st).
On 3rd down Oklahoma State converts 32.6% (108th) against a UCF defense allowing 44.6% (108th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | UCF | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Scott Frost | Eric Morris |
| Tenureat this school | 2nd season | 1st season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 27–16 | 3–1 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 43–47 | 25–17 |
| Offensive coordinator | Steve Cooper | Sean Brophy |
| Defensive coordinator | Alex Grinch | Skyler Cassity |
Staff list as of October 6, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: UCF won 2 and Oklahoma State 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Oklahoma State 14, UCF 17 UCF won | ||
| Nov 11, 2023 | Oklahoma State 3, UCF 45 UCF won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
UCF Knights
- UCF Knights team stats
- Baylor Bears at UCF Knights (Oct 30)
- BYU Cougars 31, UCF Knights 39 (Oct 24)
- UCF Knights 17, Houston Cougars 27 (Oct 3)
- TCU Horned Frogs 13, UCF Knights 21 (Sep 26)
Oklahoma State Cowboys
More NCAAF games on October 10, 2026
- Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20 (Oct 10)
- Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38 (Oct 10)
- Texas A&M Aggies 6, Missouri Tigers 27 (Oct 10)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38, NC State Wolfpack 14 (Oct 10)
- Indiana Hoosiers 20, Nebraska Cornhuskers 17 (Oct 10)
- North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17 (Oct 10)
- Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31 (Oct 10)
- Ball State Cardinals 14, Northwestern Wildcats 45 (Oct 10)
- South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19 (Oct 10)
- Old Dominion Monarchs 10, Appalachian State Mountaineers 3 (Oct 10)
- Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28 (Oct 10)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, UMass Minutemen 19 (Oct 10)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23 (Oct 10)
- Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25 (Oct 10)
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