Baylor Bears vs Kansas Jayhawks Final — October 24, 2026
BAYOffense2026 regular season to dateKU
BAYDefenseKUBAYLast 10 gamesKURest & travelrest and travel
BAYRest & travelKUAbout these numbers
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (138 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Margin of each of the last 6 games this season, oldest to newest (gold = won). Hover a bar for the score margin.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
The pre-game matchup
Baylor (3-2) visited Kansas (1-4) on Saturday, October 24 at 1:00 PM ET.
Baylor has the 111th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 14th-ranked defense (ranks among the 138 teams with play-by-play data). Meanwhile, Kansas has the 121st-ranked offense and the 67th-ranked defense. When Baylor has the ball, a 111th-ranked offense (−0.058 EPA per play) meets a 67th-ranked defense (+0.058 allowed); when Kansas has it, a 121st-ranked offense (−0.086) meets a 14th-ranked defense (−0.089 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Baylor offense is at 41.2% (124th) and the Kansas offense at 39.6% (134th). Baylor scores 27.2 points per game (65th) and allows 17.0 (18th); Kansas scores 28.2 (54th) and allows 27.6 (80th).
Baylor is 4-2 and 4-2 against the spread; its last game was a 17-6 loss to TCU.
Kansas closed as a 1.5-point favorite at home against Baylor. The spread opened with Baylor favored by 3.5. The total closed at 54.5, up from 53.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Baylor -105, Kansas -115) prices Baylor at 49% and Kansas at 51%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 25
Kansas Jayhawks won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Kansas Jayhawks -1.5): Baylor Bears covered.
- Combined score 49 vs the closing total of 54.5: Under.
- Kansas Jayhawks closed at -115 on the moneyline (a 51% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 11 points toward Kansas Jayhawks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Baylor Bears 49%, Kansas Jayhawks 51%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q3 13:29 — Kansas Jayhawks ball, 1st & 10 at KU 35Shotgun #8 I.Marshall pass intercepted by #7 D.Jordan at KU42 #7 D.Jordan return 42 yards to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:29 #98 R.Armstrong kick attempt good (H…Baylor Bears 45% → 72% (+27 pts) · Drive 14 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:58 — Kansas Jayhawks ball, 4th & 1 at KU 40Shotgun #1 D.Edwards rush middle for 0 yards to the KU40 (#5 T.Barnes), TURNOVER ON DOWNSBaylor Bears 60% → 80% (+20 pts) · Drive 21 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 1:00 — Baylor Bears ball, 1st & 20 at BAY 15No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Lagway pass complete deep middle to #6 G.Freeman caught at BU49, for 34 yards to the BU49 (#3 C.Gordon), 1ST DOWNBaylor Bears 41% → 60% (+19 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:18 — Baylor Bears ball, 4th & 4 at KU 27#98 R.Armstrong field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD blocked by #94 B.Herold (H: #94 P.Williams, LS: #93 D.Schaub), clock 00:18 recovered by KU #0 A.Alexande…Kansas Jayhawks 40% → 64% (+24 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 0:07 — Kansas Jayhawks ball, 3rd & 13 at KU 30Kneel down by #8 I.Marshall at KU25 for loss of 5 yardsKansas Jayhawks 60% → 100% (+40 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
Kansas Jayhawks won after falling as low as 12% (Q3 5:52).
Game DNA
| Baylor | Points added | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| -9.0 | Passingdropbacks | -14.2 |
| -10.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | +6.5 |
| +10.2 | Explosive plays4 plays · 5 plays | +12.5 |
| -1.8 | Turnovers1 giveaways · 2 giveaways | -12.0 |
| -1.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -3.4 |
| -2.7 | Penaltiespre-snap and dead-ball | +1.8 |
| +3.8 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 1 of 2 | -2.4 |
| -12.1 | All plays | -11.2 |
The biggest single gap: rushing, worth about 17.2 points to Kansas Jayhawks. The final margin was 1.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Kansas Jayhawks closed as the market favourite at 51% and won.
The line moved toward Kansas Jayhawks before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Baylor -3.5 (-107)
Baylor +1.5 (-118)
Kansas +138 40%
Kansas -115 51%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
- Attempts177
- Completion %49.2%
- Passing yards1,020
- Yards per attempt5.8
- TD–INT8–3
- Rushing yards327142nd
- Season line90 carries, 327 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving yards55521st
- Season line49 catches, 555 yds, 2 TD
- Tackles36276th
- Attempts167
- Completion %52.7%240th
- Passing yards1,294115th
- Yards per attempt7.896th
- TD–INT9–5
- Rushing yards37598th
- Season line75 carries, 375 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving yards40078th
- Season line23 catches, 400 yds, 4 TD
- Tackles41173rd
Season passing totals from public box scores, captured before kickoff. Ranks among the 262 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts. Rushing, receiving and tackle leaders: season totals captured October 21, 5:34 a.m. ET; ranks among FBS players.
Success by situation
| Situation | Baylor | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBaylor offense vs Kansas defense | 37.9%129th | 40.2%30th |
| Early-down success rateKansas offense vs Baylor defense | 42.3%50th | 38.0%127th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBaylor offense vs Kansas defense | 40.0%73rd | 38.5%53rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateKansas offense vs Baylor defense | 40.0%65th | 33.3%107th |
| Explosive play rateBaylor offense vs Kansas defense | 7.4%44th | 7.0%77th |
| Explosive play rateKansas offense vs Baylor defense | 5.5%30th | 9.7%8th |
| Pass rateshare of plays that are passes or sacks | 56.8%18th-highest | 50.0%78th-highest |
On 3rd down Baylor converts 40.0% (73rd) against a Kansas defense allowing 38.5% (53rd).
On 3rd down Kansas converts 33.3% (107th) against a Baylor defense allowing 40.0% (65th).
2026 regular season before kickoff, from play-by-play with garbage time removed; ranks among the 138 teams in the play-by-play data (defense: 1st = allows the least). Success = a play that gains expected points.
Coaching staff
| Staff | Baylor | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dave Aranda | Lance Leipold |
| Tenureat this school | 7th season | 6th season |
| Record at schoolthis season included, as of the date below | 40–39 | 29–39 |
| Career recordas an FBS head coach | 40–39 | 66–72 |
| Offensive coordinator | Jake Spavital | Andy Kotelnicki / Matt Lubick |
| Defensive coordinator | Joe Klanderman | D.K. McDonald |
Staff list as of October 20, 6:50 a.m. ET.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Baylor won 3 and Kansas 0.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | Kansas 17, Baylor 45 Baylor won | ||
| Oct 22, 2022 | Kansas 23, Baylor 35 Baylor won | ||
| Sep 18, 2021 | Baylor 45, Kansas 7 Baylor won |
Meetings since 2021, most recent first. Line and total are the consensus closing numbers where line history is available.
Teams
Baylor Bears
- Baylor Bears team stats
- Baylor Bears at UCF Knights (Oct 30)
- TCU Horned Frogs 17, Baylor Bears 6 (Oct 17)
- Baylor Bears 55, Arizona State Sun Devils 19 (Oct 3)
- Baylor Bears 16, Auburn Tigers 17 (Sep 5)
Kansas Jayhawks
- Kansas Jayhawks team stats
- Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs (Oct 31)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Kansas State Wildcats 35 (Oct 17)
- Kansas Jayhawks 24, Utah Utes 41 (Oct 10)
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0, Kansas Jayhawks 55 (Oct 3)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NCAAF games on October 24, 2026
- LSU Tigers 38, Auburn Tigers 17 (Oct 24)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 24, Cincinnati Bearcats 37 (Oct 24)
- Rice Owls 49, Florida Atlantic Owls 51 (Oct 24)
- Pittsburgh Panthers 23, Miami Hurricanes 52 (Oct 24)
- Indiana Hoosiers 13, Michigan Wolverines 6 (Oct 24)
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14, Northwestern Wildcats 42 (Oct 24)
- California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 59 (Oct 24)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 24, TCU Horned Frogs 20 (Oct 24)
- Western Michigan Broncos 38, Toledo Rockets 45 (Oct 24)
- Miami (OH) RedHawks 28, Central Michigan Chippewas 27 (Oct 24)
- Akron Zips 20, Kent State Golden Flashes 35 (Oct 24)
- Oregon Ducks 10, Illinois Fighting Illini 21 (Oct 24)
- Texas A&M Aggies 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 31 (Oct 24)
- Sacramento State Hornets 17, Ball State Cardinals 34 (Oct 24)
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