Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Preview & Odds — October 5, 2026
Matchup preview
The Falcons (1-2) visit the Saints (1-2) at Caesars Superdome on Monday, October 5 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 4.
The Falcons have the 29th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 9th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Saints have the 16th-ranked offense and the 23rd-ranked defense. When the Falcons have the ball, a 29th-ranked offense (−0.151 EPA per play) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (+0.068 allowed); when the Saints have it, a 16th-ranked offense (+0.010) meets a 9th-ranked defense (−0.050 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Falcons offense is at 46.6% (10th) and the Saints offense at 46.8% (9th). Through the air, the Falcons average −0.361 EPA per dropback (32nd) against a Saints pass defense ranked 20th; the Saints average +0.029 (18th) against a Falcons pass defense ranked 14th. The Falcons score 17.0 points per game (27th) and allow 22.7 (15th); the Saints score 27.0 (11th) and allow 27.7 (26th).
Tyler Shough has a 49.4% success rate (11th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Cooper Rush's 34.8% (33rd). Per dropback, Shough is at +0.035 EPA to Rush's −0.673, with 8 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Rush's 1 and 4.
The Falcons are 1-2 and 1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 35-14 win over the Packers. The Saints are 1-2 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 35-27 loss to the Raiders.
The Saints are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Falcons. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 47.5, up from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Falcons +120, Saints -145) prices the Falcons at 43% and the Saints at 57%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Falcons2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks46
- Success rate34.8%33rd
- EPA per dropback−0.67334th
- Completion %56.4%32nd
- CPOE−13.433rd
- Yards per attempt5.930th
- TD–INT1–4
- Sack rate10.9%32nd
- Dropbacks146
- Success rate49.4%11th
- EPA per dropback+0.03521st
- Completion %69.5%9th
- CPOE+4.59th
- Yards per attempt7.021st
- TD–INT8–3
- Sack rate6.8%21st
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Drake London leads the Falcons wide receivers with 274 receiving yards (6th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.0%. Bijan Robinson has 349 rushing yards on 66 carries (2nd of 44 qualified running backs). Chris Olave leads the Saints wide receivers with 375 receiving yards (2nd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 29.0%. Travis Etienne has 128 rushing yards on 30 carries (28th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries66
- Rush yards3492nd
- Yards per carry5.36th
- EPA per rush+0.0725th
- Rush success rate53.0%1st
- Targets / catches19 / 15
- Receiving yards2746th
- Target share26.0%13th
- Yards per target14.42nd
- EPA per target+0.8579th
- Targets / catches6 / 4
- Receiving yards31
- Target share11.1%
- Yards per target5.2
- EPA per target+0.959
- Carries30
- Rush yards12828th
- Yards per carry4.320th
- EPA per rush−0.03921st
- Rush success rate46.7%9th
- Targets / catches36 / 27
- Receiving yards3752nd
- Target share29.0%6th
- Yards per target10.419th
- EPA per target+0.77414th
- Targets / catches19 / 15
- Receiving yards1736th
- Target share15.3%16th
- Yards per target9.17th
- EPA per target+0.5197th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateFalcons offense vs Saints defense | 48.3%6th | 51.0%30th |
| Early-down success rateSaints offense vs Falcons defense | 38.5%7th | 44.0%12th |
| Early-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Saints defense | −0.12228th | +0.08926th |
| Early-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Falcons defense | −0.0626th | −0.01619th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFalcons offense vs Saints defense | 34.3%25th | 47.1%25th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSaints offense vs Falcons defense | 36.6%9th | 53.2%5th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Saints defense | −0.26926th | +0.03520th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Falcons defense | +0.01019th | −0.03817th |
| Red-zone TD rateFalcons offense vs Saints defense | 80.0%4th | 61.5%14th |
| Red-zone TD rateSaints offense vs Falcons defense | 50.0%9th | 75.0%5th |
| Red-zone success rateFalcons offense vs Saints defense | 76.9%1st | 41.0%13th |
| Red-zone success rateSaints offense vs Falcons defense | 31.7%5th | 52.9%5th |
On early downs the Falcons succeed on 48.3% of plays (6th) against a Saints defense that allows 51.0% (30th); on 3rd down they convert 34.3% (25th) against a defense allowing 47.1% (25th). On early downs the Saints succeed on 44.0% of plays (12th) against a Falcons defense that allows 38.5% (7th); on 3rd down they convert 53.2% (5th) against a defense allowing 36.6% (9th). The Falcons score touchdowns on 80.0% of red-zone trips (4th). The Saints score touchdowns on 75.0% of red-zone trips (5th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kevin Stefanski | Kellen Moore |
| Offensive coordinator | Tommy Rees | Doug Nussmeier |
| Defensive coordinator | Jeff Ulbrich | Brandon Staley |
| Offense tendencies | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −11.9%32nd-highest | 1.6%8th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 48.1%32nd-highest | 66.2%7th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 41.1%32nd-highest | 63.1%3rd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 53.2%22nd-highest | 69.1%2nd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 3.2%25th-highest | 16.4%2nd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.711th-slowest | 29.631st-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 15.7%16th | 16.2%13th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 7.2%27th | 9.6%12th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 10.2%12th | 5.6%28th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 7.7%25th | 6.8%20th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 4.23%31st | 3.15%27th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 62.711th-most | 73.31st-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Defense | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 3.7%27th | 6.0%20th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 13.0%9th | 14.8%16th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 9.2%16th | 5.6%8th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 4.3%3rd | 12.3%29th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.09%23rd | 1.05%27th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 17.6%8th | 16.5%13th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.3%7th | 14.4%12th |
The Falcons run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−11.9% pass rate over expected, 32nd-highest), while the Saints sit at 1.6% (8th-highest). In neutral situations the Falcons take 33.7 seconds between snaps and the Saints 29.6, so the Saints play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Falcons have gone for it 1 of 3 times and the Saints 3 of 4.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Travel and schedule
The Falcons have 11 days between games and the Saints 8. The Falcons travel about 424 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour back. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
FalconsSaintsLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Falcons won 9 and the Saints 13. In the most recent meeting (January 4, 2026), the Falcons won 19-17; the Falcons averaged −0.248 EPA per play; the Saints averaged −0.114 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Saints 17, Falcons 19 Falcons won | Falcons -4.5 Saints covered | 43.5 under | Falcons −0.248 · Saints −0.114 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Falcons 24, Saints 10 Falcons won | Saints -1.5 Falcons covered | 41.5 under | Falcons −0.112 · Saints −0.275 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Falcons 17, Saints 20 Saints won | Falcons -3.5 Saints covered | 46.5 under | Falcons +0.074 · Saints +0.004 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Saints 24, Falcons 26 Falcons won | Falcons -2.5 Saints covered | 41.5 over | Falcons +0.020 · Saints +0.060 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Falcons 17, Saints 48 Saints won | Saints -3.5 Saints covered | 41.5 over | Falcons −0.300 · Saints +0.205 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Falcons +2.5 (-103)
Falcons +2.5 (-105)
Saints -150 58%
Saints -145 57%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Falcons +2.5-103Caesars
- Saints -2.5+102Novig
- Over 48-107Caesars
- Under 47.5+108Polymarket
- Falcons+125BetRivers
- Saints-127Novig
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