Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Final — October 5, 2026
ATLStarting quarterbacksexpected startersNO
ATLOffense2026 regular season to dateNOATLDefenseNOATLRecent formNOInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
ATLRest & travelNOATLKey injuriesNOAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Falcons (1-2) visited the Saints (1-2) at Caesars Superdome on Monday, October 5 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 4.
The Falcons have the 29th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 9th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Saints have the 16th-ranked offense and the 23rd-ranked defense. When the Falcons have the ball, a 29th-ranked offense (−0.151 EPA per play) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (+0.068 allowed); when the Saints have it, a 16th-ranked offense (+0.010) meets a 9th-ranked defense (−0.050 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Falcons offense is at 46.6% (10th) and the Saints offense at 46.8% (9th). Through the air, the Falcons average −0.361 EPA per dropback (32nd) against a Saints pass defense ranked 20th; the Saints average +0.029 (18th) against a Falcons pass defense ranked 14th. The Falcons score 17.0 points per game (27th) and allow 22.7 (15th); the Saints score 27.0 (11th) and allow 27.7 (26th).
Tyler Shough has a 49.4% success rate (11th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Cooper Rush's 34.8% (33rd). Per dropback, Shough is at +0.035 EPA to Rush's −0.673, with 8 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Rush's 1 and 4.
The Falcons are 1-2 and 1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 35-14 win over the Packers. The Saints are 1-2 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 35-27 loss to the Raiders.
The Saints closed as 1-point favorites at home against the Falcons. The spread opened at Saints -2.5. The total closed at 47.5, up from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Falcons -105, Saints -115) prices the Falcons at 49% and the Saints at 51%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24
Atlanta Falcons won by 21.
- Against the closing spread (New Orleans Saints -1): Atlanta Falcons covered.
- Combined score 69 vs the closing total of 47.5: Over.
- Atlanta Falcons closed at -105 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 6 points toward Atlanta Falcons.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Atlanta Falcons 49%, New Orleans Saints 51%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q1 13:43 — Atlanta Falcons ball, 2nd & 1 at ATL 417-Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Atlanta Falcons 51% → 61% (+10 pts) · Drive 1 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 5:08 — New Orleans Saints ball, 4th & 6 at ATL 3410-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.Atlanta Falcons 62% → 71% (+9 pts) · Drive 4 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 2:52 — New Orleans Saints ball, 1st & 10 at NO 205-K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (94-L.London, 26-C.HendersoAtlanta Falcons 64% → 75% (+11 pts) · Drive 6 in Drive X-Ray
- Q1 0:56 — Atlanta Falcons ball, 4th & 4 at NO 8(Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Dotson (97-K.Boyd). PENALTY on NO-1-K.McKinstry, Defensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NO 8 - No Play.Atlanta Falcons 74% → 79% (+5 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 11:15 — Atlanta Falcons ball, 2nd & 10 at NO 39(Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 5-D.London to NO 12 for 27 yards (29-Q.Riley; 23-J.Blackmon).Atlanta Falcons 74% → 79% (+5 pts) · Drive 9 in Drive X-Ray
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of each team's plays, Atlanta Falcons would win 99% of the time (New Orleans Saints 1%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Atlanta Falcons. Here is where that came from.
| Falcons | Points added | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| +1.3 | Passingdropbacks | -16.9 |
| +0.7 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.3 |
| +17.4 | Explosive plays9 plays · 7 plays | +17.1 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -5.9 |
| -0.9 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | -2.0 |
| +1.8 | Penalties8 for 70 yds · 8 for 49 yds | +1.9 |
| +3.2 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 4 of 5 · 3 of 4 | +2.9 |
| +23.6 | All plays | -5.1 |
The biggest single gap: passing, worth about 18.2 points to Atlanta Falcons. The final margin was 21.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
New Orleans Saints closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.
The line moved toward Atlanta Falcons before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Falcons +2.5 (-103)
Falcons +1 (-109)
Saints -150 58%
Saints -115 51%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Drake London has 274 receiving yards for the Falcons (6th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 26.0%. Bijan Robinson has 349 rushing yards on 66 carries (2nd of 44 qualified running backs). Chris Olave has 375 receiving yards for the Saints (2nd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 29.0%. Travis Etienne has 128 rushing yards on 30 carries (28th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries66
- Rush yards3492nd
- Yards per carry5.36th
- EPA per rush+0.0725th
- Rush success rate53.0%1st
- Targets / catches19 / 15
- Receiving yards2746th
- Target share26.0%13th
- Yards per target14.42nd
- EPA per target+0.8579th
- Targets / catches6 / 4
- Receiving yards31
- Target share11.1%
- Yards per target5.2
- EPA per target+0.959
- Carries30
- Rush yards12828th
- Yards per carry4.320th
- EPA per rush−0.03921st
- Rush success rate46.7%9th
- Targets / catches36 / 27
- Receiving yards3752nd
- Target share29.0%6th
- Yards per target10.419th
- EPA per target+0.77414th
- Targets / catches19 / 15
- Receiving yards1736th
- Target share15.3%16th
- Yards per target9.17th
- EPA per target+0.5197th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateFalcons offense vs Saints defense | 48.3%6th | 51.0%30th |
| Early-down success rateSaints offense vs Falcons defense | 38.5%7th | 44.0%12th |
| Early-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Saints defense | −0.12228th | +0.08926th |
| Early-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Falcons defense | −0.0626th | −0.01619th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFalcons offense vs Saints defense | 34.3%25th | 47.1%25th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSaints offense vs Falcons defense | 36.6%9th | 53.2%5th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs Saints defense | −0.26926th | +0.03520th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Falcons defense | +0.01019th | −0.03817th |
| Red-zone TD rateFalcons offense vs Saints defense | 80.0%4th | 61.5%14th |
| Red-zone TD rateSaints offense vs Falcons defense | 50.0%9th | 75.0%5th |
| Red-zone success rateFalcons offense vs Saints defense | 76.9%1st | 41.0%13th |
| Red-zone success rateSaints offense vs Falcons defense | 31.7%5th | 52.9%5th |
On early downs the Falcons succeed on 48.3% of plays (6th) against a Saints defense that allows 51.0% (30th); on 3rd down they convert 34.3% (25th) against a defense allowing 47.1% (25th). On early downs the Saints succeed on 44.0% of plays (12th) against a Falcons defense that allows 38.5% (7th); on 3rd down they convert 53.2% (5th) against a defense allowing 36.6% (9th). The Falcons score touchdowns on 80.0% of red-zone trips (4th). The Saints score touchdowns on 75.0% of red-zone trips (5th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kevin Stefanski | Kellen Moore |
| Offensive coordinator | Tommy Rees | Doug Nussmeier |
| Defensive coordinator | Jeff Ulbrich | Brandon Staley |
| Offense tendencies | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −11.9%32nd-highest | 1.6%8th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 48.1%32nd-highest | 66.2%7th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 41.1%32nd-highest | 63.1%3rd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 53.2%22nd-highest | 69.1%2nd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 3.2%25th-highest | 16.4%2nd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 33.711th-slowest | 29.631st-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 15.7%16th | 16.2%13th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 7.2%27th | 9.6%12th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 10.2%12th | 5.6%28th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 7.7%25th | 6.8%20th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 4.23%31st | 3.15%27th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 62.711th-most | 73.31st-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Defense | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 3.7%27th | 6.0%20th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 13.0%9th | 14.8%16th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 9.2%16th | 5.6%8th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 4.3%3rd | 12.3%29th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 1.09%23rd | 1.05%27th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 17.6%8th | 16.5%13th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.3%7th | 14.4%12th |
The Falcons run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−11.9% pass rate over expected, 32nd-highest), while the Saints sit at 1.6% (8th-highest). In neutral situations the Falcons take 33.7 seconds between snaps and the Saints 29.6, so the Saints play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Falcons have gone for it 1 of 3 times and the Saints 3 of 4.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Falcons won 9 and the Saints 13. In the most recent meeting (January 4, 2026), the Falcons won 19-17; the Falcons averaged −0.248 EPA per play; the Saints averaged −0.114 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Saints 17, Falcons 19 Falcons won | Falcons -4.5 Saints covered | 43.5 under | Falcons −0.248 · Saints −0.114 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Falcons 24, Saints 10 Falcons won | Saints -1.5 Falcons covered | 41.5 under | Falcons −0.112 · Saints −0.275 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Falcons 17, Saints 20 Saints won | Falcons -3.5 Saints covered | 46.5 under | Falcons +0.074 · Saints +0.004 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Saints 24, Falcons 26 Falcons won | Falcons -2.5 Saints covered | 41.5 over | Falcons +0.020 · Saints +0.060 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Falcons 17, Saints 48 Saints won | Saints -3.5 Saints covered | 41.5 over | Falcons −0.300 · Saints +0.205 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Atlanta Falcons
- Atlanta Falcons team stats
- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Nov 1)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
New Orleans Saints
- New Orleans Saints team stats
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
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