Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints Preview & Odds — November 15, 2026
CARStarting quarterbacksexpected startersNO
CAROffense2026 regular season to dateNOCARDefenseNOCARRecent formNOCARHome and roadseason to dateNOInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CARRest & travelNOCARKey injuriesNOAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
Matchup preview
The Panthers (3-5) visit the Saints (3-5) at Caesars Superdome on Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 10.
The Panthers have the 9th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 21st-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Saints have the 22nd-ranked offense and the 24th-ranked defense. When the Panthers have the ball, a 9th-ranked offense (+0.042 EPA per play) meets a 24th-ranked defense (+0.049 allowed); when the Saints have it, a 22nd-ranked offense (−0.037) meets a 21st-ranked defense (+0.030 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Panthers offense is at 42.7% (16th) and the Saints offense at 42.0% (20th). Through the air, the Panthers average +0.084 EPA per dropback (13th) against a Saints pass defense ranked 22nd; the Saints average +0.016 (21st) against a Panthers pass defense ranked 20th. The Panthers score 24.9 points per game (11th) and allow 27.4 (28th); the Saints score 23.1 (15th) and allow 27.0 (27th).
Over the last five games, the Panthers rank 13th on offense and 23rd on defense by EPA per play; the Saints rank 22nd and 20th.
Tyler Shough has a 46.1% success rate (15th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Bryce Young's 44.0% (21st). Per dropback, Shough is at +0.019 EPA to Young's +0.075, with 14 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions to Young's 16 and 6.
The Panthers are 3-5 and 3-5 against the spread; their last game was a 26-21 loss to the Broncos. The Saints are 3-5 and 3-5 against the spread; their last game was a 23-22 win over the Browns.
The Saints are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Panthers. The spread opened with Panthers favored by 1.5. The total is 49, up from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Panthers +115, Saints -140) prices the Panthers at 44% and the Saints at 56%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Panthers -1.5 (-109)
Panthers +2.5 (-110)
Saints -100 48%
Saints -140 56%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Nov 14
- Panthers +2.5-108BetRivers
- Saints -2.5-107Caesars
- Over 49-108BetMGM
- Under 49-110BetMGM
- Panthers+120Hard Rock
- Saints-120Novig
Matchup
Players to watch
Tetairoa McMillan has 625 receiving yards for the Panthers (13th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.1%. Chuba Hubbard has 619 rushing yards on 134 carries (10th of 41 qualified running backs). Chris Olave has 734 receiving yards for the Saints (6th of 76 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.1%. Kendre Miller has 159 rushing yards on 57 carries (40th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries134
- Rush yards61910th
- Yards per carry4.612th
- EPA per rush+0.0706th
- Rush success rate46.3%6th
- Targets / catches71 / 46
- Receiving yards62513th
- Target share25.1%16th
- Yards per target8.828th
- EPA per target+0.39425th
- Targets / catches35 / 23
- Receiving yards29917th
- Target share12.4%29th
- Yards per target8.511th
- EPA per target+0.3789th
- Carries57
- Rush yards15940th
- Yards per carry2.840th
- EPA per rush−0.28838th
- Rush success rate24.6%41st
- Targets / catches83 / 56
- Receiving yards7346th
- Target share28.1%9th
- Yards per target8.827th
- EPA per target+0.44719th
- Targets / catches39 / 28
- Receiving yards28918th
- Target share13.2%25th
- Yards per target7.420th
- EPA per target+0.29713th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Panthers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success ratePanthers offense vs Saints defense | 42.6%17th | 46.5%29th |
| Early-down success rateSaints offense vs Panthers defense | 43.5%19th | 38.8%26th |
| Early-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Saints defense | +0.0858th | +0.08029th |
| Early-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Panthers defense | +0.03723rd | −0.08426th |
| 3rd-down conversion ratePanthers offense vs Saints defense | 37.7%19th | 49.5%32nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSaints offense vs Panthers defense | 47.7%29th | 43.5%8th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playPanthers offense vs Saints defense | −0.13223rd | +0.03618th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSaints offense vs Panthers defense | +0.07123rd | −0.09817th |
| Red-zone TD ratePanthers offense vs Saints defense | 67.9%5th | 53.1%11th |
| Red-zone TD rateSaints offense vs Panthers defense | 75.0%29th | 67.9%5th |
| Red-zone success ratePanthers offense vs Saints defense | 49.4%5th | 38.3%10th |
| Red-zone success rateSaints offense vs Panthers defense | 48.8%24th | 48.2%6th |
On early downs the Panthers succeed on 42.6% of plays (17th) against a Saints defense that allows 46.5% (29th); on 3rd down they convert 37.7% (19th) against a defense allowing 49.5% (32nd). On early downs the Saints succeed on 38.8% of plays (26th) against a Panthers defense that allows 43.5% (19th); on 3rd down they convert 43.5% (8th) against a defense allowing 47.7% (29th). The Panthers score touchdowns on 67.9% of red-zone trips (5th). The Saints score touchdowns on 67.9% of red-zone trips (5th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Panthers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dave Canales | Kellen Moore |
| Offensive coordinator | Brad Idzik | Doug Nussmeier |
| Defensive coordinator | Ejiro Evero | Brandon Staley |
| Offense tendencies | Panthers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.2% | 3.1%4th-highest | −1.1%15th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.3% | 66.4%2nd-highest | 64.6%5th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.8% | 63.0%1st-highest | 58.9%7th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.7% | 65.6%12th-highest | 70.4%6th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.5% | 7.1%13th-highest | 14.2%3rd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 29.332nd-slowest | 30.531st-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 17.2%11th | 13.1%25th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 9.1%12th | 7.2%26th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 10.9%9th | 6.0%30th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.3% | 7.5%23rd | 5.8%14th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.98% | 1.91%17th | 2.46%25th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.3 | 65.15th-most | 65.93rd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.6% | 8 of 11 | 9 of 11 |
| Defense | Panthers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.3% | 3.9%32nd | 7.6%8th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 10.9%2nd | 17.4%24th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 5.4%2nd | 10.5%27th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 9.6%16th | 9.9%20th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.98% | 1.74%21st | 1.38%29th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.7% | 10.5%32nd | 14.7%20th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.7% | 15.9%17th | 14.4%9th |
The Panthers pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (3.1% pass rate over expected, 4th-highest), while the Saints sit at −1.1% (15th-highest). In neutral situations the Panthers take 29.3 seconds between snaps and the Saints 30.5, so the Panthers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Panthers have gone for it 8 of 11 times and the Saints 9 of 11.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 23 times since 2015: the Panthers won 8 and the Saints 15. In the most recent meeting (December 14, 2025), the Saints won 20-17; the Panthers averaged +0.110 EPA per play; the Saints averaged +0.106 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | Panthers 17, Saints 20 Saints won | Panthers -2.5 Saints covered | 41.5 under | Panthers +0.110 · Saints +0.106 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Saints 17, Panthers 7 Saints won | Panthers -5.5 Saints covered | 38.5 under | Panthers −0.419 · Saints +0.162 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Saints 22, Panthers 23 Panthers won | Saints -7 Panthers covered | 43.5 over | Panthers −0.008 · Saints +0.128 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Panthers 10, Saints 47 Saints won | Saints -3.5 Saints covered | 41.5 over | Panthers −0.485 · Saints +0.206 |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Panthers 6, Saints 28 Saints won | Saints -5.5 Saints covered | 39 under | Panthers −0.327 · Saints −0.191 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Carolina Panthers
- Carolina Panthers team stats
- Denver Broncos 26, Carolina Panthers 21 (Nov 8)
- Carolina Panthers 19, Green Bay Packers 27 (Oct 29)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
New Orleans Saints
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- Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders (Nov 15)
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