Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers Final — October 19, 2026
WSHStarting quarterbacksexpected startersSF
WSHOffense2026 regular season to dateSFWSHDefenseSFWSHRecent formSFWSHHome and roadseason to dateSFInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
WSHRest & travelSFWSHKey injuriesSFAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Commanders (1-3-1) visited the 49ers (5-0) at Levi's Stadium on Monday, October 19 at 8:15 PM ET in Week 6.
The Commanders have the 15th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 23rd-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the 49ers have the 2nd-ranked offense and the 4th-ranked defense. When the Commanders have the ball, a 15th-ranked offense (−0.015 EPA per play) meets a 4th-ranked defense (−0.067 allowed); when the 49ers have it, a 2nd-ranked offense (+0.209) meets a 23rd-ranked defense (+0.040 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Commanders offense is at 39.8% (27th) and the 49ers offense at 52.7% (1st). Through the air, the Commanders average +0.065 EPA per dropback (17th) against a 49ers pass defense ranked 12th; the 49ers average +0.417 (1st) against a Commanders pass defense ranked 25th. The Commanders score 23.0 points per game (17th) and allow 29.8 (30th); the 49ers score 30.8 (3rd) and allow 18.6 (3rd).
Brock Purdy has a 57.3% success rate (1st of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jayden Daniels' 43.1% (23rd). Per dropback, Purdy is at +0.413 EPA to Daniels' +0.192, with 13 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Daniels' 3 and 0.
The Commanders are 1-3-1 and 2-3 against the spread; their last game was a 27-27 tie with the Giants. The 49ers are 5-0 and 4-1 against the spread; their last game was a 32-29 win over the Seahawks.
The 49ers closed as 7.5-point favorites at home against the Commanders. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 51.5, up from 50.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Commanders +307, 49ers -390) prices the Commanders at 24% and the 49ers at 76%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Washington Commanders 17, San Francisco 49ers 23
San Francisco 49ers won by 6.
- Against the closing spread (San Francisco 49ers -7.5): Washington Commanders covered.
- Combined score 40 vs the closing total of 51.5: Under.
- San Francisco 49ers closed at -390 on the moneyline (a 76% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Washington Commanders.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Washington Commanders 24%, San Francisco 49ers 76%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 5:03 — Washington Commanders ball, 2nd & 9 at WAS 39(Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 13-T.Burks to SF 31 for 30 yards (24-A.Davis).Washington Commanders 13% → 21% (+8 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 3:01 — Washington Commanders ball, 4th & 8 at SF 29(Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-R.Height and 53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-24-A.Davis, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at SF 29 - No Play.Washington Commanders 12% → 22% (+10 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:19 — Washington Commanders ball, 3rd & 3 at SF 17(Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left guard to SF 17 for no gain (6-M.Mustapha).San Francisco 49ers 81% → 87% (+6 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:00 — Washington Commanders ball, 4th & 3 at SF 17(Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).San Francisco 49ers 87% → 96% (+10 pts) · Drive 17 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Commanders | Points added | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| -5.7 | Passingdropbacks | -4.8 |
| -1.9 | Rushingdesigned runs | +4.0 |
| +12.2 | Explosive plays7 plays · 5 plays | +11.9 |
| +0.0 | Turnovers0 giveaways · 1 giveaways | -4.4 |
| +6.0 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.8 |
| -0.1 | Penalties7 for 66 yds · 11 for 88 yds | -3.6 |
| -4.9 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 4 · 3 of 4 | +5.7 |
| +5.5 | All plays | +9.7 |
The biggest single gap: red zone, worth about 10.6 points to San Francisco 49ers. The final margin was 6.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
San Francisco 49ers closed as the market favourite at 76% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Commanders +7.5 (-113)
Commanders +7.5 (-118)
49ers -420 77%
49ers -390 76%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Stefon Diggs has 170 receiving yards for the Commanders (58th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.0%. Mike Evans has 326 receiving yards for the 49ers (18th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.8%. Christian McCaffrey has 286 rushing yards on 61 carries (17th of 41 qualified running backs).
- Carries29
- Rush yards118
- Yards per carry4.1
- EPA per rush−0.100
- Rush success rate41.4%
- Targets / catches31 / 18
- Receiving yards17058th
- Target share24.0%21st
- Yards per target5.577th
- EPA per target+0.15156th
- Targets / catches13 / 8
- Receiving yards8134th
- Target share14.8%21st
- Yards per target6.224th
- EPA per target+0.14425th
- Carries61
- Rush yards28617th
- Yards per carry4.713th
- EPA per rush+0.0539th
- Rush success rate47.5%4th
- Targets / catches34 / 24
- Receiving yards32618th
- Target share24.8%19th
- Yards per target9.625th
- EPA per target+1.0043rd
- Targets / catches28 / 21
- Receiving yards2686th
- Target share20.4%7th
- Yards per target9.63rd
- EPA per target+0.4508th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Commanders | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateCommanders offense vs 49ers defense | 40.7%24th | 41.1%8th |
| Early-down success rate49ers offense vs Commanders defense | 44.7%21st | 52.3%2nd |
| Early-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs 49ers defense | +0.01613th | −0.1273rd |
| Early-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Commanders defense | −0.0458th | +0.2132nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCommanders offense vs 49ers defense | 31.9%29th | 40.8%17th |
| 3rd-down conversion rate49ers offense vs Commanders defense | 43.9%24th | 51.9%1st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs 49ers defense | −0.15426th | +0.10623rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Commanders defense | +0.23828th | +0.2234th |
| Red-zone TD rateCommanders offense vs 49ers defense | 53.8%22nd | 50.0%4th |
| Red-zone TD rate49ers offense vs Commanders defense | 83.3%32nd | 88.2%1st |
| Red-zone success rateCommanders offense vs 49ers defense | 37.2%23rd | 44.7%21st |
| Red-zone success rate49ers offense vs Commanders defense | 52.2%28th | 56.0%2nd |
On early downs the Commanders succeed on 40.7% of plays (24th) against a 49ers defense that allows 41.1% (8th); on 3rd down they convert 31.9% (29th) against a defense allowing 40.8% (17th). On early downs the 49ers succeed on 52.3% of plays (2nd) against a Commanders defense that allows 44.7% (21st); on 3rd down they convert 51.9% (1st) against a defense allowing 43.9% (24th). The Commanders score touchdowns on 53.8% of red-zone trips (22nd). The 49ers score touchdowns on 88.2% of red-zone trips (1st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Commanders | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Dan Quinn | Kyle Shanahan |
| Offensive coordinator | David Blough | Klay Kubiak |
| Defensive coordinator | Daronte Jones | Raheem Morris |
| Offense tendencies | Commanders | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.0% | −3.3%21st-highest | 3.0%5th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 61.1%15th-highest | 56.7%27th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 54.8%15th-highest | 52.7%23rd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.8% | 70.7%4th-highest | 46.4%31st-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 8.2%9th-highest | 0.4%32nd-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 32.522nd-slowest | 33.812th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 14.2%21st | 19.0%5th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 8.2%20th | 11.1%2nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.5% | 6.5%25th | 13.3%4th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.1%10th | 1.9%1st |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.94% | 0.63%2nd | 1.08%8th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.2 | 63.49th-most | 55.230th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.4% | 6 of 11 | 2 of 5 |
| Defense | Commanders | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 4.2%27th | 5.8%17th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 15.3%17th | 9.6%2nd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 8.4%15th | 5.1%1st |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.5% | 6.7%3rd | 3.2%1st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.94% | 2.21%12th | 1.89%19th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 14.2%20th | 14.8%18th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 17.6%23rd | 12.8%4th |
The Commanders run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−3.3% pass rate over expected, 21st-highest), while the 49ers sit at 3.0% (5th-highest). In neutral situations the Commanders take 32.5 seconds between snaps and the 49ers 33.8, so the Commanders play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Commanders have gone for it 6 of 11 times and the 49ers 2 of 5.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2015: the Commanders won 2 and the 49ers 3. In the most recent meeting (December 31, 2023), the 49ers won 27-10; the 49ers averaged +0.228 EPA per play; the Commanders averaged −0.183 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2023 | 49ers 27, Commanders 10 49ers won | 49ers -14 49ers covered | 49 under | 49ers +0.228 · Commanders −0.183 |
| Dec 24, 2022 | Commanders 20, 49ers 37 49ers won | 49ers -6.5 49ers covered | 37.5 over | 49ers +0.119 · Commanders −0.134 |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Commanders 23, 49ers 15 Commanders won | 49ers -3 Commanders covered | 43.5 under | 49ers −0.355 · Commanders −0.307 |
| Oct 20, 2019 | 49ers 9, Commanders 0 49ers won | 49ers -10 Commanders covered | 39 under | 49ers −0.070 · Commanders −0.284 |
| Oct 15, 2017 | 49ers 24, Commanders 26 Commanders won | Commanders -12 49ers covered | 46 over | 49ers +0.051 · Commanders −0.002 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
Washington Commanders
- Washington Commanders team stats
- Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (Nov 1)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 (Sep 27)
San Francisco 49ers
- San Francisco 49ers team stats
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
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