Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Colts (1-2) visit the Commanders (1-2) at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, a neutral site, on Sunday, October 4 at 9:30 AM ET in Week 4.
The Colts have the 21st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 31st-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Commanders have the 14th-ranked offense and the 26th-ranked defense. When the Colts have the ball, a 21st-ranked offense (−0.059 EPA per play) meets a 26th-ranked defense (+0.076 allowed); when the Commanders have it, a 14th-ranked offense (+0.018) meets a 31st-ranked defense (+0.172 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Colts offense is at 43.3% (16th) and the Commanders offense at 41.9% (20th). Through the air, the Colts average −0.150 EPA per dropback (29th) against a Commanders pass defense ranked 29th; the Commanders average +0.127 (13th) against a Colts pass defense ranked 28th. The Colts score 24.0 points per game (15th) and allow 30.3 (29th); the Commanders score 25.0 (13th) and allow 30.7 (31st).
Daniel Jones has a 44.6% success rate (20th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jayden Daniels' 42.2% (26th). Per dropback, Jones is at −0.150 EPA to Daniels' +0.198, with 3 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions to Daniels' 3 and 0.
The Colts are 1-2 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 19-17 win over the Texans. The Commanders are 1-2 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 33-31 win over the Seahawks.
The Colts are 3.5-point favorites over the Commanders at the neutral site. The spread has not moved since it opened. The total is 48.5, up from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Colts -195, Commanders +165) prices the Colts at 64% and the Commanders at 36%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Colts2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks108
- Success rate44.6%20th
- EPA per dropback−0.15030th
- Completion %66.3%15th
- CPOE−0.624th
- Yards per attempt6.229th
- TD–INT3–3
- Sack rate5.6%15th
- Dropbacks61
- Success rate42.2%26th
- EPA per dropback+0.19811th
- Completion %56.9%31st
- CPOE−1.025th
- Yards per attempt5.133rd
- TD–INT3–0
- Sack rate1.6%2nd
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Josh Downs leads the Colts wide receivers with 186 receiving yards (20th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 25.5%. Jonathan Taylor has 254 rushing yards on 65 carries (6th of 44 qualified running backs). Stefon Diggs leads the Commanders wide receivers with 135 receiving yards (39th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.7%. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 142 rushing yards on 47 carries (26th of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries65
- Rush yards2546th
- Yards per carry3.925th
- EPA per rush+0.03310th
- Rush success rate41.5%18th
- Targets / catches24 / 14
- Receiving yards18620th
- Target share25.5%15th
- Yards per target7.847th
- EPA per target+0.54526th
- Targets / catches22 / 18
- Receiving yards8921st
- Target share23.4%5th
- Yards per target4.035th
- EPA per target+0.06025th
- Carries47
- Rush yards14226th
- Yards per carry3.038th
- EPA per rush−0.13528th
- Rush success rate31.9%37th
- Targets / catches22 / 13
- Receiving yards13539th
- Target share23.7%26th
- Yards per target6.165th
- EPA per target+0.37837th
- Targets / catches4 / 3
- Receiving yards22
- Target share6.8%
- Yards per target5.5
- EPA per target+0.016
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Colts | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateColts offense vs Commanders defense | 42.1%19th | 47.0%26th |
| Early-down success rateCommanders offense vs Colts defense | 51.6%31st | 40.8%21st |
| Early-down EPA per playColts offense vs Commanders defense | −0.11026th | +0.04222nd |
| Early-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs Colts defense | +0.17231st | −0.01317th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateColts offense vs Commanders defense | 40.5%16th | 47.1%25th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCommanders offense vs Colts defense | 37.5%10th | 38.1%19th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playColts offense vs Commanders defense | +0.00214th | +0.30527th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs Colts defense | +0.28526th | −0.00316th |
| Red-zone TD rateColts offense vs Commanders defense | 66.7%9th | 75.0%25th |
| Red-zone TD rateCommanders offense vs Colts defense | 66.7%19th | 70.0%7th |
| Red-zone success rateColts offense vs Commanders defense | 50.0%8th | 46.4%20th |
| Red-zone success rateCommanders offense vs Colts defense | 45.5%19th | 42.4%15th |
On early downs the Colts succeed on 42.1% of plays (19th) against a Commanders defense that allows 47.0% (26th); on 3rd down they convert 40.5% (16th) against a defense allowing 47.1% (25th). On early downs the Commanders succeed on 40.8% of plays (21st) against a Colts defense that allows 51.6% (31st); on 3rd down they convert 38.1% (19th) against a defense allowing 37.5% (10th). The Colts score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th). The Commanders score touchdowns on 70.0% of red-zone trips (7th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Colts | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Shane Steichen | Dan Quinn |
| Offensive coordinator | Jim Bob Cooter | David Blough |
| Defensive coordinator | Lou Anarumo | Daronte Jones |
| Offense tendencies | Colts | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −4.6%24th-highest | −3.5%22nd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 57.8%21st-highest | 58.6%20th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 53.8%19th-highest | 53.9%18th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 55.6%18th-highest | 69.0%3rd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 4.3%20th-highest | 8.1%9th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 34.27th-slowest | 32.226th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 12.7%25th | 12.5%26th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 7.8%21st | 6.2%28th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 12.8%3rd | 4.9%31st |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.6%14th | 2.6%3rd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 3.21%28th | 0.51%1st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 62.312th-most | 65.74th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 4 of 5 | 3 of 6 |
| Defense | Colts | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.3%17th | 4.3%25th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 23.1%31st | 18.9%24th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 9.6%19th | 10.8%24th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 9.0%16th | 3.8%2nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 0.53%31st | 1.77%16th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 11.7%27th | 14.7%18th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 18.5%26th | 14.8%15th |
The Colts run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−4.6% pass rate over expected, 24th-highest), while the Commanders sit at −3.5% (22nd-highest). In neutral situations the Colts take 34.2 seconds between snaps and the Commanders 32.2, so the Commanders play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Colts have gone for it 4 of 5 times and the Commanders 3 of 6.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
- Nick Cross SOutIllness
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Colts have 7 days between games and the Commanders 7. The Colts travel about 3,989 miles, moving their body clock 5 hours ahead. The game is at a neutral site, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
ColtsCommandersLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Colts won 1 and the Commanders 1. In the most recent meeting (October 30, 2022), the Commanders won 17-16; the Colts averaged −0.146 EPA per play; the Commanders averaged −0.066 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2022 | Commanders 17, Colts 16 Commanders won | Colts -3 Commanders covered | 40.5 under | Colts −0.146 · Commanders −0.066 |
| Sep 16, 2018 | Colts 21, Commanders 9 Colts won | Commanders -6 Colts covered | 48 under | Colts +0.028 · Commanders −0.142 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Colts -3.5 (-114)
Colts -3.5 (-114)
Commanders +166 36%
Commanders +165 36%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Colts -4-108BetMGM
- Commanders +3.5+104Polymarket
- Over 47.5-115Hard Rock
- Under 48.5-104Polymarket
- Colts-182Novig
- Commanders+178Novig
Dig deeper
Teams
Indianapolis Colts
- Indianapolis Colts team stats
- Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 (Sep 27)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33 (Sep 20)
- Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23 (Sep 13)
Washington Commanders
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