New York Giants vs Washington Commanders Final — October 11, 2026
NYGStarting quarterbacksexpected startersWSH
NYGOffense2026 regular season to dateWSHNYGDefenseWSHNYGRecent formWSHNYGHome and roadseason to dateWSHInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
NYGRest & travelWSHNYGKey injuriesWSHAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The Giants (3-1) visited the Commanders (1-3) at Northwest Stadium on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 5.
The Giants have the 22nd-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 16th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Commanders have the 21st-ranked offense and the 20th-ranked defense. When the Giants have the ball, a 22nd-ranked offense (−0.047 EPA per play) meets a 20th-ranked defense (+0.032 allowed); when the Commanders have it, a 21st-ranked offense (−0.045) meets a 16th-ranked defense (+0.016 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Giants offense is at 40.0% (26th) and the Commanders offense at 38.6% (29th). Through the air, the Giants average +0.028 EPA per dropback (19th) against a Commanders pass defense ranked 23rd; the Commanders average +0.031 (17th) against a Giants pass defense ranked 12th. The Giants score 20.5 points per game (21st) and allow 19.8 (8th); the Commanders score 22.0 (16th) and allow 30.5 (30th).
Jayden Daniels has a 42.2% success rate (24th of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jameis Winston's 34.4% (31st). Per dropback, Daniels is at +0.198 EPA to Winston's −0.186, with 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Winston's 3 and 3. Jayden Daniels is in line to start in place of Marcus Mariota, who is listed as out on the injury report.
The Giants are 3-1 and 3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 36-24 win over the Cardinals. The Commanders are 1-3 and 2-2 against the spread; their last game was a 30-13 loss to the Colts.
The Commanders closed as 3.5-point favorites at home against the Giants. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 41.5, down from 44.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Giants +150, Commanders -182) prices the Giants at 38% and the Commanders at 62%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27
The game ended in a tie.
- Against the closing spread (Washington Commanders -3.5): New York Giants covered.
- Combined score 54 vs the closing total of 41.5: Over.
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward New York Giants.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (New York Giants 38%, Washington Commanders 62%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q4 1:48 — New York Giants ball, 1st & 10 at WAS 17(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.New York Giants 20% → 36% (+15 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 9:20 — New York Giants ball, 3rd & 10 at WAS 45(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles right end to WAS 30 for 15 yards (2-A.Robertson).New York Giants 59% → 82% (+23 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 8:01 — New York Giants ball, 4th & 8 at WAS 2834-D.Zvada 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.Washington Commanders 36% → 68% (+33 pts) · Drive 23 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 2:00 — New York Giants ball, 1st & 10 at WAS 24(Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (94-D.Payne; 52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-96-S.Tuttle at WAS 23.Washington Commanders 20% → 57% (+37 pts) · Drive 25 in Drive X-Ray
- OT 0:12 — Washington Commanders ball, 2nd & 8 at NYG 245-J.Daniels sacked at NYG 24 for 0 yards (49-T.Edmunds).New York Giants 27% → 50% (+23 pts) · Drive 26 in Drive X-Ray
Game DNA
| Giants | Points added | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | Passingdropbacks | -9.9 |
| -5.1 | Rushingdesigned runs | -4.0 |
| +17.2 | Explosive plays10 plays · 11 plays | +20.3 |
| -8.7 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| -0.4 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +0.2 |
| +1.4 | Penalties7 for 35 yds · 9 for 69 yds | -1.9 |
| +7.5 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 0 of 1 | +0.3 |
| +6.4 | All plays | +5.0 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 8.7 points to Washington Commanders. The final margin was 0.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Washington Commanders closed as the market favourite at 62% and tied.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Giants +3.5 (-114)
Giants +3.5 (-114)
Commanders -190 63%
Commanders -182 62%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Malik Nabers has 208 receiving yards for the Giants (34th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.4%. Cam Skattebo has 235 rushing yards on 68 carries (17th of 46 qualified running backs). Stefon Diggs has 170 receiving yards for the Commanders (49th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 24.0%. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 157 rushing yards on 56 carries (31st of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries68
- Rush yards23517th
- Yards per carry3.537th
- EPA per rush−0.16935th
- Rush success rate32.4%37th
- Targets / catches26 / 18
- Receiving yards20834th
- Target share23.4%25th
- Yards per target8.045th
- EPA per target+0.22648th
- Targets / catches35 / 22
- Receiving yards19010th
- Target share31.5%1st
- Yards per target5.428th
- EPA per target+0.16220th
- Carries56
- Rush yards15731st
- Yards per carry2.844th
- EPA per rush−0.17940th
- Rush success rate30.4%42nd
- Targets / catches31 / 18
- Receiving yards17049th
- Target share24.0%22nd
- Yards per target5.576th
- EPA per target+0.15155th
- Targets / catches7 / 4
- Receiving yards21
- Target share10.8%
- Yards per target3.0
- EPA per target−0.209
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Giants | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateGiants offense vs Commanders defense | 38.0%29th | 45.1%21st |
| Early-down success rateCommanders offense vs Giants defense | 46.2%23rd | 39.2%27th |
| Early-down EPA per playGiants offense vs Commanders defense | −0.06125th | −0.01610th |
| Early-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs Giants defense | +0.06123rd | −0.01519th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateGiants offense vs Commanders defense | 44.2%9th | 42.9%22nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCommanders offense vs Giants defense | 50.0%30th | 31.6%30th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playGiants offense vs Commanders defense | +0.02410th | +0.22829th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs Giants defense | +0.11724th | −0.16522nd |
| Red-zone TD rateGiants offense vs Commanders defense | 54.5%20th | 80.0%30th |
| Red-zone TD rateCommanders offense vs Giants defense | 75.0%27th | 58.3%17th |
| Red-zone success rateGiants offense vs Commanders defense | 37.5%22nd | 50.0%25th |
| Red-zone success rateCommanders offense vs Giants defense | 37.8%9th | 37.8%21st |
On early downs the Giants succeed on 38.0% of plays (29th) against a Commanders defense that allows 45.1% (21st); on 3rd down they convert 44.2% (9th) against a defense allowing 42.9% (22nd). On early downs the Commanders succeed on 39.2% of plays (27th) against a Giants defense that allows 46.2% (23rd); on 3rd down they convert 31.6% (30th) against a defense allowing 50.0% (30th). The Giants score touchdowns on 54.5% of red-zone trips (20th). The Commanders score touchdowns on 58.3% of red-zone trips (17th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Giants | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | John Harbaugh | Dan Quinn |
| Offensive coordinator | Matt Nagy | David Blough |
| Defensive coordinator | Dennard Wilson | Daronte Jones |
| Offense tendencies | Giants | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −9.3%30th-highest | −3.3%20th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 52.9%28th-highest | 60.6%16th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 45.1%31st-highest | 54.1%19th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 52.9%23rd-highest | 68.2%8th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 3.8%23rd-highest | 8.9%7th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 36.31st-slowest | 31.727th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 15.7%16th | 11.3%28th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 6.1%30th | 6.6%28th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 6.2%25th | 5.9%28th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 8.7%27th | 3.2%2nd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 2.08%19th | 0.77%4th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 59.518th-most | 64.57th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 |
| Defense | Giants | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 2.1%32nd | 4.6%23rd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 12.1%8th | 15.2%15th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 5.7%5th | 9.0%18th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 11.8%28th | 7.4%7th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 3.07%4th | 2.15%13th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 9.8%31st | 14.5%20th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 19.8%30th | 17.3%21st |
The Giants run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−9.3% pass rate over expected, 30th-highest), while the Commanders sit at −3.3% (20th-highest). In neutral situations the Giants take 36.3 seconds between snaps and the Commanders 31.7, so the Commanders play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Giants have gone for it 1 of 1 times and the Commanders 6 of 11.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 22 times since 2015: the Giants won 11 and the Commanders 10, with 1 tie. In the most recent meeting (December 14, 2025), the Commanders won 29-21; the Giants averaged +0.020 EPA per play; the Commanders averaged +0.003 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | Commanders 29, Giants 21 Commanders won | Giants -2.5 Commanders covered | 46.5 over | Giants +0.020 · Commanders +0.003 |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Giants 6, Commanders 21 Commanders won | Commanders -6 Commanders covered | 45.5 under | Giants −0.241 · Commanders +0.186 |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Commanders 27, Giants 22 Commanders won | Commanders -4.5 Commanders covered | 44.5 over | Giants +0.105 · Commanders +0.312 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Giants 18, Commanders 21 Commanders won | Commanders -1.5 Commanders covered | 42.5 under | Giants +0.099 · Commanders +0.156 |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Giants 31, Commanders 19 Giants won | Commanders -7.5 Giants covered | 39 over | Giants −0.023 · Commanders −0.171 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
New York Giants
- New York Giants team stats
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 (Oct 18)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36 (Oct 4)
Washington Commanders
- Washington Commanders team stats
- Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (Nov 1)
- Washington Commanders 17, San Francisco 49ers 23 (Oct 19)
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (Oct 4)
- Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 (Sep 27)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
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