Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders Final — September 27, 2026
Final score and result vs the closing line
Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33
Washington Commanders won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Washington Commanders +8.5): Washington Commanders covered.
- Combined score 64 vs the closing total of 40.5: Over.
- Washington Commanders closed at +320 on the moneyline (a 23% no-vig market-implied chance).
The pre-game matchup
The Seahawks (2-0) visited the Commanders (0-2) at Northwest Stadium on Sunday, September 27 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 3.
The Seahawks have the 10th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 4th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Commanders have the 11th-ranked offense and the 27th-ranked defense. When the Seahawks have the ball, a 10th-ranked offense (+0.106 EPA per play) meets a 27th-ranked defense (+0.151 allowed); when the Commanders have it, a 11th-ranked offense (+0.064) meets a 4th-ranked defense (−0.199 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Seahawks offense is at 43.9% (15th) and the Commanders offense at 46.7% (8th). Through the air, the Seahawks average +0.411 EPA per dropback (3rd) against a Commanders pass defense ranked 28th; the Commanders average +0.150 (13th) against a Seahawks pass defense ranked 9th. The Seahawks score 22.0 points per game (17th) and allow 8.5 (2nd); the Commanders score 21.0 (18th) and allow 30.5 (27th).
Drew Lock has a 51.0% success rate (8th of 33 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Jayden Daniels' 42.2% (25th). Per dropback, Lock is at +0.476 EPA to Daniels' +0.198, with 4 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to Daniels' 3 and 0. Jayden Daniels is listed as out on the injury report.
The Seahawks are 2-0 and 1-0-1 against the spread; their last game was a 31-7 win over the Cardinals. The Commanders are 0-2 and 1-1 against the spread; their last game was a 37-20 loss to the Cowboys.
The Seahawks closed as 8.5-point road favorites, with the Commanders getting the points at home. The spread opened at Seahawks -5.5. The total closed at 40.5, down from 41.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Seahawks -415, Commanders +320) prices the Seahawks at 77% and the Commanders at 23%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Seahawks2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks51
- Success rate51.0%8th
- EPA per dropback+0.4764th
- Completion %72.9%5th
- CPOE+6.911th
- Yards per attempt8.84th
- TD–INT4–0
- Sack rate3.9%7th
- Dropbacks61
- Success rate42.2%25th
- EPA per dropback+0.19811th
- Completion %56.9%30th
- CPOE−1.024th
- Yards per attempt5.132nd
- TD–INT3–0
- Sack rate1.6%2nd
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 33 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the Seahawks wide receivers with 277 receiving yards (1st of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 44.0%. Emanuel Wilson has 95 rushing yards on 23 carries (24th of 45 qualified running backs). Stefon Diggs leads the Commanders wide receivers with 102 receiving yards (27th of 85 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.8%. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 106 rushing yards on 28 carries (20th of 45 qualified running backs).
- Carries23
- Rush yards9524th
- Yards per carry4.124th
- EPA per rush−0.25235th
- Rush success rate43.5%14th
- Targets / catches22 / 17
- Receiving yards2771st
- Target share44.0%1st
- Yards per target12.611th
- EPA per target+1.1626th
- Targets / catches3 / 3
- Receiving yards21
- Target share6.0%
- Yards per target7.0
- EPA per target+0.469
- Carries28
- Rush yards10620th
- Yards per carry3.831st
- EPA per rush+0.03111th
- Rush success rate42.9%16th
- Targets / catches15 / 9
- Receiving yards10227th
- Target share23.8%22nd
- Yards per target6.853rd
- EPA per target+0.62124th
- Targets / catches3 / 2
- Receiving yards13
- Target share10.3%
- Yards per target4.3
- EPA per target−0.230
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Seahawks | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateSeahawks offense vs Commanders defense | 43.0%15th | 42.5%16th |
| Early-down success rateCommanders offense vs Seahawks defense | 37.3%5th | 45.6%12th |
| Early-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs Commanders defense | +0.06011th | +0.07123rd |
| Early-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs Seahawks defense | −0.1544th | +0.00317th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSeahawks offense vs Commanders defense | 33.3%24th | 52.0%28th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCommanders offense vs Seahawks defense | 28.6%5th | 44.8%11th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs Commanders defense | +0.14512th | +0.40726th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs Seahawks defense | −0.6413rd | +0.16511th |
| Red-zone TD rateSeahawks offense vs Commanders defense | 42.9%25th | 71.4%18th |
| Red-zone TD rateCommanders offense vs Seahawks defense | 66.7%16th | 71.4%8th |
| Red-zone success rateSeahawks offense vs Commanders defense | 29.6%27th | 37.5%11th |
| Red-zone success rateCommanders offense vs Seahawks defense | 42.9%13th | 46.2%15th |
On early downs the Seahawks succeed on 43.0% of plays (15th) against a Commanders defense that allows 42.5% (16th); on 3rd down they convert 33.3% (24th) against a defense allowing 52.0% (28th). On early downs the Commanders succeed on 45.6% of plays (12th) against a Seahawks defense that allows 37.3% (5th); on 3rd down they convert 44.8% (11th) against a defense allowing 28.6% (5th). The Seahawks score touchdowns on 42.9% of red-zone trips (25th). The Commanders score touchdowns on 71.4% of red-zone trips (8th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Seahawks | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Mike Macdonald | Dan Quinn |
| Offensive coordinator | Brian Fleury | David Blough |
| Defensive coordinator | Aden Durde | Daronte Jones |
| Offense tendencies | Seahawks | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.4% | −9.2%29th-highest | −5.5%22nd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.0% | 47.4%32nd-highest | 60.0%17th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.7% | 40.7%31st-highest | 56.3%13th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.4% | 43.0%30th-highest | 68.7%4th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 0.9%30th-highest | 9.7%8th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.1 | 37.11st-slowest | 29.330th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 15.7%16th | 13.9%20th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 9.8%12th | 6.3%24th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 10.0%13th | 5.7%26th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.5% | 5.6%12th | 1.2%2nd |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.85% | 0.88%9th | 0.74%5th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 59.8 | 57.021st-most | 67.06th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.0% | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
| Defense | Seahawks | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.5% | 6.8%15th | 7.2%12th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 4.4%1st | 15.6%16th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 0.0%1st | 12.5%28th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 4.9%4th | 2.8%1st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.85% | 3.51%4th | 0.00%30th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 17.8%9th | 15.9%17th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 16.7%17th | 10.0%2nd |
The Seahawks run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−9.2% pass rate over expected, 29th-highest), while the Commanders sit at −5.5% (22nd-highest). In neutral situations the Seahawks take 37.1 seconds between snaps and the Commanders 29.3, so the Commanders play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Seahawks have gone for it 4 of 5 times and the Commanders 2 of 3.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
- Julian Love SOutCalf
- Ty Okada SOutHamstring
- Frankie Luvu LBOutGroin
- Jayden Daniels QBOutElbow
- Nick Cross SOutIllness
- Chig Okonkwo TEOutHamstring
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Seahawks have 7 days between games and the Commanders 7. The Seahawks travel about 2,330 miles, moving their body clock 3 hours ahead. It is their 2nd straight game away from home.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
SeahawksCommandersLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 5 times since 2015: the Seahawks won 3 and the Commanders 2. In the most recent meeting (November 2, 2025), the Seahawks won 38-14; the Seahawks averaged +0.448 EPA per play; the Commanders averaged −0.020 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | Seahawks 38, Commanders 14 Seahawks won | Seahawks -2.5 Seahawks covered | 47.5 over | Seahawks +0.448 · Commanders −0.020 |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Commanders 26, Seahawks 29 Seahawks won | Seahawks -6 Commanders covered | 44 over | Seahawks +0.098 · Commanders +0.109 |
| Nov 29, 2021 | Seahawks 15, Commanders 17 Commanders won | Seahawks -1 Commanders covered | 47 under | Seahawks −0.093 · Commanders +0.025 |
| Dec 20, 2020 | Seahawks 20, Commanders 15 Seahawks won | Seahawks -6 Commanders covered | 44.5 under | Seahawks +0.075 · Commanders +0.003 |
| Nov 5, 2017 | Commanders 17, Seahawks 14 Commanders won | Seahawks -8 Commanders covered | 44.5 under | Seahawks −0.031 · Commanders −0.184 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Closing line and line movement
Seahawks -5.5 (-110)
Seahawks -8.5 (-105)
Commanders +210 31%
Commanders +320 23%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Dig deeper
Teams
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Commanders
- Washington Commanders team stats
- Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (Oct 4)
- Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37 (Sep 20)
- Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24 (Sep 13)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on September 27, 2026
- Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24 (Sep 27)
- Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19 (Sep 27)
- Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10 (Sep 27)
- Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 (Sep 27)
- Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (Sep 27)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 (Sep 27)
- Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31 (Sep 27)
- Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 (Sep 27)
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