San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Final — October 11, 2026
SFStarting quarterbacksexpected startersSEA
SFOffense2026 regular season to dateSEASFDefenseSEASFRecent formSEASFHome and roadseason to dateSEAInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SFRest & travelSEASFKey injuriesSEAAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 32 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The 49ers (4-0) visited the Seahawks (3-1) at Lumen Field on Sunday, October 11 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 5.
The 49ers have the 1st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 18th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have the 13th-ranked offense and the 2nd-ranked defense. When the 49ers have the ball, a 1st-ranked offense (+0.291 EPA per play) meets a 2nd-ranked defense (−0.137 allowed); when the Seahawks have it, a 13th-ranked offense (+0.018) meets a 18th-ranked defense (+0.017 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the 49ers offense is at 54.5% (1st) and the Seahawks offense at 44.4% (13th). Through the air, the 49ers average +0.566 EPA per dropback (1st) against a Seahawks pass defense ranked 4th; the Seahawks average +0.193 (10th) against a 49ers pass defense ranked 17th. The 49ers score 30.5 points per game (2nd) and allow 16.0 (3rd); the Seahawks score 26.2 (10th) and allow 18.2 (5th).
Brock Purdy has a 62.0% success rate (1st of 32 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Sam Darnold's 50.7% (4th). Per dropback, Purdy is at +0.566 EPA to Darnold's −0.009, with 11 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Darnold's 6 and 3.
The 49ers are 4-0 and 3-1 against the spread; their last game was a 24-14 win over the Broncos. The Seahawks are 3-1 and 1-1-2 against the spread; their last game was a 30-23 win over the Chargers.
The Seahawks closed as 3-point favorites at home against the 49ers. The spread closed where it opened. The total closed at 46.5, down from 47.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (49ers +137, Seahawks -161) prices the 49ers at 41% and the Seahawks at 59%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29
San Francisco 49ers won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Seattle Seahawks -3): San Francisco 49ers covered.
- Combined score 61 vs the closing total of 46.5: Over.
- San Francisco 49ers closed at +137 on the moneyline (a 41% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward San Francisco 49ers.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (San Francisco 49ers 41%, Seattle Seahawks 59%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 8:31 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 1st & 10 at SEA 923-E.Wilson right end to SEA 11 for 2 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), RECOVERED by SF-6-M.Mustapha at SEA 12. 6-M.Mustapha to SEA 11 for 1 yard (67-C.Cross).San Francisco 49ers 29% → 43% (+14 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q2 0:18 — Seattle Seahawks ball, 1st & 10 at SEA 436-G.Holani left guard to SEA 0 for -4 yards (93-G.Halton). FUMBLES (93-G.Halton), touched at SEA 0, RECOVERED by SF-93-G.Halton at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.San Francisco 49ers 44% → 66% (+22 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 7:24 — San Francisco 49ers ball, 3rd & 7 at SF 37(Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 4-J.Cowing INTERCEPTED by 28-N.Pritchett at SF 43. 28-N.Pritchett pushed ob at SF 23 for 20 yards (75-C.Colby).Seattle Seahawks 35% → 50% (+15 pts) · Drive 20 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 5:06 — San Francisco 49ers ball, 1st & 10 at SF 35(Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end to SF 35 for no gain (32-D.Thomas). FUMBLES (32-D.Thomas), RECOVERED by SEA-29-J.Jobe at SF 36. SF-19-D.Samuel was injured during the play. The Replay Official reviewed the runner waSeattle Seahawks 59% → 75% (+16 pts) · Drive 22 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 12:26 — San Francisco 49ers ball, 2nd & 21 at SEA 37(Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 5-M.Evans pushed ob at SEA 9 for 28 yards (29-J.Jobe).San Francisco 49ers 29% → 44% (+15 pts) · Drive 24 in Drive X-Ray
San Francisco 49ers won after falling as low as 23% (Q3 2:24).
Game DNA
| 49ers | Points added | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| -12.6 | Passingdropbacks | -9.8 |
| -1.4 | Rushingdesigned runs | -3.7 |
| +10.4 | Explosive plays7 plays · 5 plays | +6.7 |
| -10.3 | Turnovers2 giveaways · 5 giveaways | -15.2 |
| +0.2 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +8.2 |
| -3.1 | Penalties8 for 70 yds · 5 for 46 yds | -0.1 |
| +7.4 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 3 of 3 · 2 of 3 | +2.2 |
| -9.4 | All plays | -11.7 |
The biggest single gap: special teams, worth about 7.9 points to Seattle Seahawks. The final margin was 3.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
Line review
Seattle Seahawks closed as the market favourite at 59% and lost.
The line moved toward San Francisco 49ers before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
49ers +3 (-115)
49ers +3 (-110)
Seahawks -173 61%
Seahawks -161 59%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Mike Evans has 213 receiving yards for the 49ers (29th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 21.8%. Christian McCaffrey has 218 rushing yards on 50 carries (21st of 46 qualified running backs). Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 481 receiving yards for the Seahawks (3rd of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 36.5%. Emanuel Wilson has 190 rushing yards on 53 carries (24th of 46 qualified running backs).
- Carries50
- Rush yards21821st
- Yards per carry4.416th
- EPA per rush−0.01518th
- Rush success rate44.0%18th
- Targets / catches24 / 17
- Receiving yards21329th
- Target share21.8%29th
- Yards per target8.935th
- EPA per target+1.0345th
- Targets / catches22 / 16
- Receiving yards2443rd
- Target share20.0%8th
- Yards per target11.13rd
- EPA per target+0.6813rd
- Carries53
- Rush yards19024th
- Yards per carry3.633rd
- EPA per rush−0.16834th
- Rush success rate37.7%28th
- Targets / catches42 / 32
- Receiving yards4813rd
- Target share36.5%1st
- Yards per target11.58th
- EPA per target+0.77412th
- Targets / catches15 / 9
- Receiving yards10225th
- Target share13.0%23rd
- Yards per target6.819th
- EPA per target−0.53234th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | 49ers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rate49ers offense vs Seahawks defense | 53.3%2nd | 35.0%1st |
| Early-down success rateSeahawks offense vs 49ers defense | 43.4%17th | 46.2%10th |
| Early-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Seahawks defense | +0.2582nd | −0.1681st |
| Early-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs 49ers defense | −0.0546th | +0.04113th |
| 3rd-down conversion rate49ers offense vs Seahawks defense | 57.5%1st | 28.6%3rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateSeahawks offense vs 49ers defense | 44.1%24th | 31.1%31st |
| 3rd-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Seahawks defense | +0.5011st | −0.3545th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playSeahawks offense vs 49ers defense | +0.21726th | −0.08015th |
| Red-zone TD rate49ers offense vs Seahawks defense | 85.7%1st | 75.0%27th |
| Red-zone TD rateSeahawks offense vs 49ers defense | 45.5%4th | 60.0%15th |
| Red-zone success rate49ers offense vs Seahawks defense | 55.8%2nd | 42.9%16th |
| Red-zone success rateSeahawks offense vs 49ers defense | 45.0%20th | 41.3%17th |
On early downs the 49ers succeed on 53.3% of plays (2nd) against a Seahawks defense that allows 35.0% (1st); on 3rd down they convert 57.5% (1st) against a defense allowing 28.6% (3rd). On early downs the Seahawks succeed on 46.2% of plays (10th) against a 49ers defense that allows 43.4% (17th); on 3rd down they convert 31.1% (31st) against a defense allowing 44.1% (24th). The 49ers score touchdowns on 85.7% of red-zone trips (1st). The Seahawks score touchdowns on 60.0% of red-zone trips (15th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | 49ers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kyle Shanahan | Mike Macdonald |
| Offensive coordinator | Klay Kubiak | Brian Fleury |
| Defensive coordinator | Raheem Morris | Aden Durde |
| Offense tendencies | 49ers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | 3.1%5th-highest | −4.2%23rd-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.6% | 55.0%26th-highest | 54.3%27th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.1% | 51.7%23rd-highest | 48.4%27th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 60.0% | 44.6%32nd-highest | 46.6%30th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.2% | 0.4%31st-highest | 1.7%28th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.8 | 33.710th-slowest | 34.44th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 20.5%4th | 19.0%7th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.8% | 11.5%4th | 10.7%6th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 13.0%5th | 9.3%15th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 5.9% | 0.0%1st | 4.7%12th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.88% | 0.45%3rd | 2.14%20th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.9 | 55.529th-most | 58.520th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.2% | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Defense | 49ers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 5.9% | 3.9%26th | 7.4%10th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 8.8%2nd | 7.2%1st |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.8% | 4.1%2nd | 4.3%3rd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 3.0%1st | 6.2%4th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.88% | 0.78%31st | 2.86%7th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 16.1% | 13.0%27th | 21.5%4th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 16.1% | 9.0%1st | 18.1%25th |
The 49ers pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (3.1% pass rate over expected, 5th-highest), while the Seahawks sit at −4.2% (23rd-highest). In neutral situations the 49ers take 33.7 seconds between snaps and the Seahawks 34.4, so the 49ers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the 49ers have gone for it 2 of 3 times and the Seahawks 5 of 6.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 24 times since 2015: the 49ers won 9 and the Seahawks 15. In the most recent meeting (January 17, 2026), the Seahawks won 41-6; the Seahawks averaged +0.212 EPA per play; the 49ers averaged −0.456 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 playoffs | 49ers 6, Seahawks 41 Seahawks won | Seahawks -6.5 Seahawks covered | 44.5 over | Seahawks +0.212 · 49ers −0.456 |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Seahawks 13, 49ers 3 Seahawks won | Seahawks -2.5 Seahawks covered | 47.5 under | Seahawks +0.069 · 49ers −0.359 |
| Sep 7, 2025 | 49ers 17, Seahawks 13 49ers won | 49ers -2.5 49ers covered | 43.5 under | Seahawks −0.265 · 49ers +0.112 |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Seahawks 20, 49ers 17 Seahawks won | 49ers -6 Seahawks covered | 49 under | Seahawks +0.003 · 49ers +0.103 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 49ers 36, Seahawks 24 49ers won | 49ers -3.5 49ers covered | 49 over | Seahawks +0.014 · 49ers +0.341 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
San Francisco 49ers
- San Francisco 49ers team stats
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 (Oct 25)
- Washington Commanders 17, San Francisco 49ers 23 (Oct 19)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
Seattle Seahawks
More NFL games on October 11, 2026
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
- Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31 (Oct 11)
- Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24 (Oct 11)
- Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 (Oct 11)
- Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 (Oct 11)
- Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17 (Oct 11)
- Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 (Oct 11)
- Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3 (Oct 11)
- New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 (Oct 11)
- Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 (Oct 11)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
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