San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons Final — October 25, 2026
SFStarting quarterbacksexpected startersATL
SFOffense2026 regular season to dateATLSFDefenseATLSFRecent formATLSFHome and roadseason to dateATLInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SFRest & travelATLSFKey injuriesATLAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Starters (and the primary passer), plus regular contributors playing at least 40% of team snaps, on the game's official injury report captured before kickoff.
The pre-game matchup
The 49ers (6-0) visited the Falcons (2-4) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET in Week 7.
The 49ers have the 1st-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 6th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Falcons have the 21st-ranked offense and the 17th-ranked defense. When the 49ers have the ball, a 1st-ranked offense (+0.209 EPA per play) meets a 17th-ranked defense (−0.022 allowed); when the Falcons have it, a 21st-ranked offense (−0.057) meets a 6th-ranked defense (−0.057 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the 49ers offense is at 52.8% (1st) and the Falcons offense at 44.3% (13th). Through the air, the 49ers average +0.363 EPA per dropback (1st) against a Falcons pass defense ranked 17th; the Falcons average −0.147 (29th) against a 49ers pass defense ranked 13th. The 49ers score 29.5 points per game (3rd) and allow 18.3 (4th); the Falcons score 23.7 (16th) and allow 25.5 (23rd).
Over the last five games, the 49ers rank 1st on offense and 15th on defense by EPA per play; the Falcons rank 15th and 23rd.
Brock Purdy has a 55.0% success rate (2nd of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Michael Penix Jr.'s 44.3% (20th). Per dropback, Purdy is at +0.359 EPA to Jr.'s +0.101, with 14 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions to Jr.'s 6 and 1.
The 49ers are 6-0 and 4-2 against the spread; their last game was a 23-17 win over the Commanders. The Falcons are 2-4 and 2-4 against the spread; their last game was a 31-23 loss to the Bears.
The 49ers closed as 2.5-point road favorites, with the Falcons getting the points at home. The spread opened at 49ers -3.5. The total closed 49.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (49ers -146, Falcons +123) prices the 49ers at 57% and the Falcons at 43%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29
Atlanta Falcons won by 9.
- Against the closing spread (Atlanta Falcons +2.5): Atlanta Falcons covered.
- Combined score 49 vs the closing total of 49.5: Under.
- Atlanta Falcons closed at +123 on the moneyline (a 43% no-vig market-implied chance).
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 7 points toward Atlanta Falcons.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (San Francisco 49ers 57%, Atlanta Falcons 43%) and moving with every snap until the final.
Biggest swings
- Q2 4:24 — San Francisco 49ers ball, 2nd & 1 at ATL 2826-K.Black up the middle to ATL 29 for -1 yards (92-M.Smith). FUMBLES (92-M.Smith), touched at ATL 29, RECOVERED by ATL-95-G.Dexter at ATL 29.Atlanta Falcons 21% → 34% (+13 pts) · Drive 7 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 5:41 — San Francisco 49ers ball, 2nd & 14 at ATL 25(Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 4-J.Cowing INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 10. 3-J.Bates ran ob at ATL 10 for no gain.Atlanta Falcons 55% → 66% (+11 pts) · Drive 10 in Drive X-Ray
- Q3 1:00 — Atlanta Falcons ball, 3rd & 8 at ATL 46(Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 4-J.Dotson. PENALTY on SF-25-J.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at ATL 46 - No Play.Atlanta Falcons 71% → 80% (+9 pts) · Drive 11 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 4:08 — Atlanta Falcons ball, 4th & 12 at ATL 3316-J.Bailey punts 20 yards to SF 47, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.San Francisco 49ers 17% → 26% (+9 pts) · Drive 15 in Drive X-Ray
- Q4 2:42 — San Francisco 49ers ball, 3rd & 9 at ATL 47(Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 17-J.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Daniels at SF 48. 53-K.Daniels pushed ob at SF 19 for 29 yards (71-T.Williams).Atlanta Falcons 85% → 98% (+12 pts) · Drive 16 in Drive X-Ray
Atlanta Falcons won after falling as low as 20% (Q2 14:05).
Game DNA
| 49ers | Points added | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| -4.6 | Passingdropbacks | -1.9 |
| +0.2 | Rushingdesigned runs | -2.6 |
| +19.8 | Explosive plays12 plays · 6 plays | +7.4 |
| -17.8 | Turnovers4 giveaways · 0 giveaways | +0.0 |
| +1.8 | Special teamskicks, punts and returns | +3.4 |
| -1.2 | Penalties7 for 55 yds · 5 for 39 yds | +4.0 |
| +3.1 | Red zoneTDs on trips: 2 of 2 · 2 of 5 | +0.1 |
| +1.2 | All plays | +10.3 |
The biggest single gap: turnovers, worth about 17.8 points to Atlanta Falcons. The final margin was 9.
Points added: what each team's plays added to its expected points, credited to the team with the ball. Each play counts once.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
San Francisco 49ers closed as the market favourite at 57% and lost.
The line moved toward Atlanta Falcons before kickoff, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
49ers -3.5 (-110)
49ers -2.5 (-116)
Falcons +165 36%
Falcons +123 43%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Christian McCaffrey has 350 rushing yards on 77 carries (14th of 40 qualified running backs). Drake London has 550 receiving yards for the Falcons (4th of 79 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 28.7%. Bijan Robinson has 641 rushing yards on 111 carries (2nd of 40 qualified running backs).
- Carries77
- Rush yards35014th
- Yards per carry4.512th
- EPA per rush+0.1132nd
- Rush success rate51.9%1st
- Targets / catches5 / 2
- Receiving yards20
- Target share5.9%
- Yards per target4.0
- EPA per target−0.227
- Targets / catches36 / 26
- Receiving yards3374th
- Target share21.7%4th
- Yards per target9.44th
- EPA per target+0.3728th
- Carries111
- Rush yards6412nd
- Yards per carry5.82nd
- EPA per rush+0.0807th
- Rush success rate49.5%3rd
- Targets / catches46 / 31
- Receiving yards5504th
- Target share28.7%7th
- Yards per target12.02nd
- EPA per target+0.59313th
- Targets / catches22 / 15
- Receiving yards16922nd
- Target share13.8%23rd
- Yards per target7.711th
- EPA per target+0.26312th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | 49ers | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rate49ers offense vs Falcons defense | 51.9%1st | 39.5%5th |
| Early-down success rateFalcons offense vs 49ers defense | 43.4%17th | 45.0%13th |
| Early-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Falcons defense | +0.1941st | −0.0835th |
| Early-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs 49ers defense | −0.0786th | −0.02619th |
| 3rd-down conversion rate49ers offense vs Falcons defense | 51.5%1st | 43.7%23rd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateFalcons offense vs 49ers defense | 38.6%13th | 38.9%18th |
| 3rd-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Falcons defense | +0.2284th | +0.12324th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playFalcons offense vs 49ers defense | +0.01921st | −0.04515th |
| Red-zone TD rate49ers offense vs Falcons defense | 85.7%1st | 64.0%21st |
| Red-zone TD rateFalcons offense vs 49ers defense | 50.0%5th | 75.0%4th |
| Red-zone success rate49ers offense vs Falcons defense | 56.1%2nd | 47.5%24th |
| Red-zone success rateFalcons offense vs 49ers defense | 43.9%19th | 47.8%9th |
On early downs the 49ers succeed on 51.9% of plays (1st) against a Falcons defense that allows 39.5% (5th); on 3rd down they convert 51.5% (1st) against a defense allowing 43.7% (23rd). On early downs the Falcons succeed on 45.0% of plays (13th) against a 49ers defense that allows 43.4% (17th); on 3rd down they convert 38.9% (18th) against a defense allowing 38.6% (13th). The 49ers score touchdowns on 85.7% of red-zone trips (1st). The Falcons score touchdowns on 75.0% of red-zone trips (4th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | 49ers | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Kyle Shanahan | Kevin Stefanski |
| Offensive coordinator | Klay Kubiak | Tommy Rees |
| Defensive coordinator | Raheem Morris | Jeff Ulbrich |
| Offense tendencies | 49ers | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.6% | 2.9%7th-highest | −7.8%30th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 61.4% | 56.7%28th-highest | 53.8%32nd-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.8% | 53.0%22nd-highest | 46.0%32nd-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.5% | 47.3%31st-highest | 52.8%28th-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 1.8%30th-highest | 5.3%17th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 33.910th-slowest | 34.44th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.2% | 18.4%8th | 16.7%12th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 11.4%2nd | 10.9%5th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.3% | 11.0%10th | 10.8%11th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.1% | 2.6%2nd | 8.3%26th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.92% | 1.19%9th | 2.79%27th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.5 | 56.030th-most | 59.323rd-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 60.4% | 3 of 6 | 2 of 5 |
| Defense | 49ers | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.1% | 6.4%17th | 5.6%20th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.2% | 11.0%3rd | 13.1%9th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 5.9%4th | 7.6%11th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.3% | 2.9%1st | 7.9%8th |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.92% | 1.60%23rd | 1.26%29th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.9% | 15.8%15th | 18.4%7th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.9% | 12.1%2nd | 13.7%5th |
The 49ers pass more often than down, distance and score would suggest (2.9% pass rate over expected, 7th-highest), while the Falcons sit at −7.8% (30th-highest). In neutral situations the 49ers take 33.9 seconds between snaps and the Falcons 34.4, so the 49ers play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the 49ers have gone for it 3 of 6 times and the Falcons 2 of 5.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 6 times since 2015: the 49ers won 3 and the Falcons 3. In the most recent meeting (October 19, 2025), the 49ers won 20-10; the Falcons averaged −0.114 EPA per play; the 49ers averaged +0.034 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2025 | Falcons 10, 49ers 20 49ers won | 49ers -1.5 49ers covered | 46.5 under | Falcons −0.114 · 49ers +0.034 |
| Oct 16, 2022 | 49ers 14, Falcons 28 Falcons won | 49ers -3.5 Falcons covered | 46 under | Falcons +0.122 · 49ers −0.121 |
| Dec 19, 2021 | Falcons 13, 49ers 31 49ers won | 49ers -9.5 49ers covered | 48 under | Falcons −0.233 · 49ers +0.288 |
| Dec 15, 2019 | Falcons 29, 49ers 22 Falcons won | 49ers -10.5 Falcons covered | 50 over | Falcons +0.076 · 49ers −0.058 |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 49ers 13, Falcons 41 Falcons won | Falcons -13.5 Falcons covered | 51.5 over | Falcons +0.322 · 49ers −0.063 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Teams
San Francisco 49ers
- San Francisco 49ers team stats
- Washington Commanders 17, San Francisco 49ers 23 (Oct 19)
- San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29 (Oct 11)
- Denver Broncos 14, San Francisco 49ers 24 (Oct 4)
Atlanta Falcons
- Atlanta Falcons team stats
- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Nov 1)
- Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 18)
- Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Oct 11)
- Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24 (Oct 5)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NFL games on October 25, 2026
- Pittsburgh Steelers 16, New Orleans Saints 10 (Oct 25)
- Cincinnati Bengals 35, Baltimore Ravens 13 (Oct 25)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43, Carolina Panthers 13 (Oct 25)
- New York Giants 27, Houston Texans 21 (Oct 25)
- Indianapolis Colts 10, Minnesota Vikings 16 (Oct 25)
- Miami Dolphins 28, New York Jets 25 (Oct 25)
- Cleveland Browns 27, Tennessee Titans 24 (Oct 25)
- Denver Broncos 30, Arizona Cardinals 16 (Oct 25)
- Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 (Oct 25)
- Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (Oct 25)
- Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 (Oct 25)
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