Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Preview & Odds — November 1, 2026
PHIStarting quarterbacksexpected startersWSH
PHIOffense2026 regular season to dateWSHPHIDefenseWSHPHIRecent formWSHPHIHome and roadseason to dateWSHRest & travelrest and travel
PHIRest & travelWSHAbout these numbers
Quarterback = expected starter for this game. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game); a starter below that minimum is placed among them. Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Last five results this season, oldest to newest. Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Against-the-spread (ATS) and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Matchup preview
The Eagles (2-5) visit the Commanders (1-4-1) at Northwest Stadium on Sunday, November 1 at 8:20 PM ET in Week 8.
The Eagles have the 30th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 28th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the Commanders have the 18th-ranked offense and the 25th-ranked defense. When the Eagles have the ball, a 30th-ranked offense (−0.116 EPA per play) meets a 25th-ranked defense (+0.067 allowed); when the Commanders have it, a 18th-ranked offense (−0.014) meets a 28th-ranked defense (+0.112 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Eagles offense is at 36.8% (30th) and the Commanders offense at 41.1% (24th). Through the air, the Eagles average −0.103 EPA per dropback (27th) against a Commanders pass defense ranked 26th; the Commanders average +0.060 (19th) against a Eagles pass defense ranked 27th. The Eagles score 18.1 points per game (29th) and allow 25.0 (21st); the Commanders score 22.0 (20th) and allow 28.7 (31st).
Over the last five games, the Eagles rank 31st on offense and 27th on defense by EPA per play; the Commanders rank 23rd and 23rd.
Jayden Daniels has a 44.9% success rate (20th of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Tanner McKee's 36.0% (35th). Per dropback, Daniels is at +0.144 EPA to McKee's −0.145, with 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions to McKee's 2 and 1.
The Eagles are 2-5 and 1-6 against the spread; their last game was a 38-21 loss to the Cowboys. The Commanders are 1-4-1 and 3-3 against the spread; their last game was a 23-17 loss to the 49ers. The Commanders are coming off a bye.
The Commanders are 5.5-point favorites at home against the Eagles. The spread opened at Commanders -4.5. The total is 40, down from 40.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Eagles +196, Commanders -240) prices the Eagles at 32% and the Commanders at 68%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Market
Odds and line movement
Eagles +4.5 (-112)
Eagles +5.5 (-112)
Commanders -202 64%
Commanders -240 68%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 28
- Eagles +5.5-102Novig
- Commanders -5.5-102Novig
- Over 40-110Fanatics
- Under 40-105BetMGM
- Eagles+213Novig
- Commanders-218DraftKings
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Players to watch
Makai Lemon has 194 receiving yards for the Eagles (63rd of 75 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 16.4%. Stefon Diggs has 214 receiving yards for the Commanders (57th of 75 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.2%. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 239 rushing yards on 67 carries (31st of 39 qualified running backs).
- Carries37
- Rush yards96
- Yards per carry2.6
- EPA per rush−0.159
- Rush success rate37.8%
- Targets / catches36 / 25
- Receiving yards19463rd
- Target share16.4%50th
- Yards per target5.470th
- EPA per target+0.06556th
- Targets / catches31 / 22
- Receiving yards22818th
- Target share18.2%13th
- Yards per target7.416th
- EPA per target+0.23517th
- Carries67
- Rush yards23931st
- Yards per carry3.629th
- EPA per rush−0.09822nd
- Rush success rate35.8%27th
- Targets / catches38 / 24
- Receiving yards21457th
- Target share23.2%22nd
- Yards per target5.668th
- EPA per target+0.23641st
- Targets / catches20 / 15
- Receiving yards15030th
- Target share16.3%19th
- Yards per target7.513th
- EPA per target+0.22918th
Among players not listed out or doubtful on this game’s captured injury report, the featured back has the most carries and receivers the most targets over each team's last four games. This is a usage comparison, not a confirmed starting lineup. Stats are season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Eagles | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateEagles offense vs Commanders defense | 36.1%30th | 45.5%27th |
| Early-down success rateCommanders offense vs Eagles defense | 44.1%19th | 43.0%17th |
| Early-down EPA per playEagles offense vs Commanders defense | −0.10929th | −0.02411th |
| Early-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs Eagles defense | +0.04220th | +0.04312th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateEagles offense vs Commanders defense | 37.9%25th | 45.0%26th |
| 3rd-down conversion rateCommanders offense vs Eagles defense | 41.7%19th | 30.9%32nd |
| 3rd-down EPA per playEagles offense vs Commanders defense | −0.01415th | +0.23927th |
| 3rd-down EPA per playCommanders offense vs Eagles defense | +0.24128th | −0.20530th |
| Red-zone TD rateEagles offense vs Commanders defense | 73.7%3rd | 81.8%31st |
| Red-zone TD rateCommanders offense vs Eagles defense | 59.3%15th | 52.9%24th |
| Red-zone success rateEagles offense vs Commanders defense | 43.6%15th | 53.2%31st |
| Red-zone success rateCommanders offense vs Eagles defense | 49.0%25th | 37.7%25th |
On early downs the Eagles succeed on 36.1% of plays (30th) against a Commanders defense that allows 45.5% (27th); on 3rd down they convert 37.9% (25th) against a defense allowing 45.0% (26th). On early downs the Commanders succeed on 43.0% of plays (17th) against a Eagles defense that allows 44.1% (19th); on 3rd down they convert 30.9% (32nd) against a defense allowing 41.7% (19th). The Eagles score touchdowns on 73.7% of red-zone trips (3rd). The Commanders score touchdowns on 52.9% of red-zone trips (24th).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Eagles | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Nick Sirianni | Dan Quinn |
| Offensive coordinator | Sean Mannion | David Blough |
| Defensive coordinator | Vic Fangio | Daronte Jones |
| Offense tendencies | Eagles | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −1.9% | −2.3%19th-highest | −1.9%15th-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.9% | 64.9%6th-highest | 63.7%10th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 55.3% | 57.0%13th-highest | 57.4%11th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 61.4% | 70.2%5th-highest | 73.9%3rd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.4% | 16.1%1st-highest | 7.7%12th-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 32.9 | 32.620th-slowest | 32.322nd-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.4% | 13.3%24th | 14.7%20th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.5% | 4.8%31st | 8.5%19th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.4% | 5.6%31st | 5.9%29th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 6.8%21st | 5.8%16th |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.85% | 1.46%14th | 0.53%1st |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 61.3 | 58.625th-most | 62.512th-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 63.8% | 6 of 8 | 7 of 12 |
| Defense | Eagles | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 3.0%32nd | 4.5%25th |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.4% | 18.0%25th | 15.3%16th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.5% | 9.0%18th | 8.9%17th |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.4% | 9.0%13th | 5.4%2nd |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.85% | 0.64%32nd | 2.13%11th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.5% | 9.1%32nd | 13.4%25th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.5% | 15.4%17th | 18.1%27th |
The Eagles run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−2.3% pass rate over expected, 19th-highest), while the Commanders sit at −1.9% (15th-highest). In neutral situations the Eagles take 32.6 seconds between snaps and the Commanders 32.3, so the Commanders play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Eagles have gone for it 6 of 8 times and the Commanders 7 of 12.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 24 times since 2015: the Eagles won 15 and the Commanders 9. In the most recent meeting (September 13, 2026), the Eagles won 24-22; the Eagles averaged +0.071 EPA per play; the Commanders averaged +0.060 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Commanders 22, Eagles 24 Eagles won | Eagles -6 Commanders covered | 43.5 over | Eagles +0.071 · Commanders +0.060 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Commanders 24, Eagles 17 Commanders won | Eagles -3 Commanders covered | 38.5 over | Eagles −0.103 · Commanders −0.025 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Eagles 29, Commanders 18 Eagles won | Eagles -7 Eagles covered | 43.5 over | Eagles +0.290 · Commanders −0.125 |
| Jan 26, 2025 playoffs | Commanders 23, Eagles 55 Eagles won | Eagles -6 Eagles covered | 46.5 over | Eagles +0.399 · Commanders −0.089 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Eagles 33, Commanders 36 Commanders won | Eagles -4 Commanders covered | 47 over | Eagles +0.026 · Commanders −0.066 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the closing lines.
Result
After the final: score vs the closing line, Drive X-Ray and the graded official play, if there was one, appear here on this same page.
Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
- Philadelphia Eagles team stats
- Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21 (Oct 26)
- Carolina Panthers 25, Philadelphia Eagles 14 (Oct 18)
- Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 (Oct 11)
Washington Commanders
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