Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers Preview & Odds — October 4, 2026
Matchup preview
The Broncos (2-1) visit the 49ers (3-0) at Levi's Stadium on Sunday, October 4 at 4:25 PM ET in Week 4.
The Broncos have the 20th-ranked offense by EPA per play (expected points added per snap) and the 21st-ranked defense. Meanwhile, the 49ers have the 1st-ranked offense and the 16th-ranked defense. When the Broncos have the ball, a 20th-ranked offense (−0.057 EPA per play) meets a 16th-ranked defense (−0.007 allowed); when the 49ers have it, a 1st-ranked offense (+0.357) meets a 21st-ranked defense (+0.045 allowed).
By success rate (the share of plays that gain expected points), the Broncos offense is at 41.5% (21st) and the 49ers offense at 56.9% (1st). Through the air, the Broncos average −0.072 EPA per dropback (24th) against a 49ers pass defense ranked 18th; the 49ers average +0.665 (1st) against a Broncos pass defense ranked 11th. The Broncos score 20.0 points per game (21st) and allow 23.3 (17th); the 49ers score 32.7 (2nd) and allow 16.7 (3rd).
Brock Purdy has a 65.2% success rate (1st of 34 qualified quarterbacks) compared to Bo Nix's 43.4% (24th). Per dropback, Purdy is at +0.665 EPA to Nix's −0.095, with 9 touchdown passes and 1 interception to Nix's 4 and 3.
The Broncos are 2-1 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 30-26 win over the Rams. The 49ers are 3-0 and 2-1 against the spread; their last game was a 36-30 win over the Cardinals.
The 49ers are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Broncos. The spread opened at 49ers -3. The total is 47.5, up from 46.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Broncos +124, 49ers -145) prices the Broncos at 43% and the 49ers at 57%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
Broncos2026 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: play-by-play via the public NFL Lab tables (raw EPA, not opponent-adjusted).
Quarterback matchup
- Dropbacks99
- Success rate43.4%24th
- EPA per dropback−0.09526th
- Completion %60.2%25th
- CPOE−2.627th
- Yards per attempt6.525th
- TD–INT4–3
- Sack rate5.1%12th
- Dropbacks89
- Success rate65.2%1st
- EPA per dropback+0.6651st
- Completion %72.3%3rd
- CPOE+6.37th
- Yards per attempt9.52nd
- TD–INT9–1
- Sack rate0.0%1st
Primary passer = most dropbacks over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among 34 qualified quarterbacks (at least 14 dropbacks per team game). Success rate = share of dropbacks and designed runs that gain expected points.
Players to watch
Jaylen Waddle leads the Broncos wide receivers with 150 receiving yards (31st of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 23.0%. J.K. Dobbins has 121 rushing yards on 35 carries (31st of 44 qualified running backs). Mike Evans leads the 49ers wide receivers with 137 receiving yards (38th of 87 qualified wide receivers) with a target share of 19.8%. Christian McCaffrey has 166 rushing yards on 35 carries (22nd of 44 qualified running backs).
- Carries35
- Rush yards12131st
- Yards per carry3.533rd
- EPA per rush−0.18034th
- Rush success rate25.7%43rd
- Targets / catches20 / 11
- Receiving yards15031st
- Target share23.0%30th
- Yards per target7.549th
- EPA per target+0.02562nd
- Targets / catches8 / 5
- Receiving yards6032nd
- Target share9.2%33rd
- Yards per target7.514th
- EPA per target+0.22219th
- Carries35
- Rush yards16622nd
- Yards per carry4.710th
- EPA per rush+0.0517th
- Rush success rate51.4%4th
- Targets / catches16 / 12
- Receiving yards13738th
- Target share19.8%41st
- Yards per target8.639th
- EPA per target+1.3993rd
- Targets / catches16 / 12
- Receiving yards1745th
- Target share19.8%10th
- Yards per target10.95th
- EPA per target+0.6505th
Lead back = most carries and lead receivers = most targets over each team's last four games. Season to date; ranks among qualified players at the position (6.25 carries, 3 targets for wide receivers or 2.5 for tight ends per team game).
Success by situation
| Situation | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Early-down success rateBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | 40.5%23rd | 45.5%20th |
| Early-down success rate49ers offense vs Broncos defense | 38.4%6th | 54.9%2nd |
| Early-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | +0.06011th | −0.0578th |
| Early-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Broncos defense | +0.03721st | +0.2532nd |
| 3rd-down conversion rateBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | 37.1%21st | 42.9%20th |
| 3rd-down conversion rate49ers offense vs Broncos defense | 48.9%27th | 63.0%1st |
| 3rd-down EPA per playBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | −0.46332nd | +0.20323rd |
| 3rd-down EPA per play49ers offense vs Broncos defense | −0.18611th | +0.8691st |
| Red-zone TD rateBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | 66.7%9th | 40.0%6th |
| Red-zone TD rate49ers offense vs Broncos defense | 41.7%7th | 90.9%1st |
| Red-zone success rateBroncos offense vs 49ers defense | 33.3%25th | 43.6%16th |
| Red-zone success rate49ers offense vs Broncos defense | 35.7%8th | 60.0%2nd |
On early downs the Broncos succeed on 40.5% of plays (23rd) against a 49ers defense that allows 45.5% (20th); on 3rd down they convert 37.1% (21st) against a defense allowing 42.9% (20th). On early downs the 49ers succeed on 54.9% of plays (2nd) against a Broncos defense that allows 38.4% (6th); on 3rd down they convert 63.0% (1st) against a defense allowing 48.9% (27th). The Broncos score touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips (9th). The 49ers score touchdowns on 90.9% of red-zone trips (1st).
Each row pairs one offense with the defense it faces; for a defense the rank is how stingy it is (1st = allows the least). Ranks out of 32 teams, season to date before kickoff.
Coaching and tendencies
| Staff | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Sean Payton | Kyle Shanahan |
| Offensive coordinator | Davis Webb | Klay Kubiak |
| Defensive coordinator | Vance Joseph | Raheem Morris |
| Offense tendencies | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expecteddropbacks above what down, distance and score suggest · league −2.1% | −1.5%16th-highest | 4.6%1st-highest |
| Dropback rateshare of plays that are dropbacks · league 60.4% | 61.6%16th-highest | 55.6%25th-highest |
| Early-down dropback rate1st and 2nd down · league 54.9% | 55.6%16th-highest | 49.6%28th-highest |
| Shotgun rateshare of snaps · league 58.8% | 67.3%10th-highest | 41.9%32nd-highest |
| No-huddle rateshare of snaps · league 6.1% | 6.2%12th-highest | 0.6%31st-highest |
| Seconds per snapneutral situations; lower is faster · league 33.0 | 32.423rd-slowest | 33.513th-slowest |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards)share of pass plays · league 15.3% | 13.8%22nd | 22.5%3rd |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards)share of pass plays · league 8.6% | 8.5%18th | 13.5%2nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards)share of designed runs · league 9.2% | 9.7%15th | 11.3%10th |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback · league 6.0% | 5.0%10th | 0.0%1st |
| Turnovers per playinterceptions and lost fumbles · league 1.90% | 2.44%23rd | 0.62%5th |
| Plays per gameoffensive snaps · league 60.6 | 54.030th-most | 53.331st-most |
| 4th-and-short go ratewent for it on 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30 · league 62.7% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Defense | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Sack rate generatedleague 6.0% | 6.6%14th | 5.5%22nd |
| Explosive passes (15+ yards) allowedleague 15.3% | 15.8%18th | 9.6%4th |
| Explosive passes (20+ yards) allowedleague 8.6% | 9.6%20th | 3.8%2nd |
| Explosive runs (10+ yards) allowedleague 9.2% | 9.1%18th | 3.7%1st |
| Takeaways per playleague 1.90% | 2.01%12th | 1.04%28th |
| QB hits generatedper dropback · league 15.8% | 21.3%4th | 16.4%14th |
| QB hits allowedper dropback · league 15.8% | 13.1%6th | 7.9%1st |
The Broncos run more often than down, distance and score would suggest (−1.5% pass rate over expected, 16th-highest), while the 49ers sit at 4.6% (1st-highest). In neutral situations the Broncos take 32.4 seconds between snaps and the 49ers 33.5, so the Broncos play faster. On 4th-and-2 or shorter beyond their own 30, the Broncos have gone for it 0 of 4 times and the 49ers 0 of 1.
Season to date before kickoff, from play-by-play (regular season). Ranks out of 32 teams; for style stats with no better or worse, rank 1 = highest. Coaching staff: Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Injury report
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
No starters listed out, doubtful or questionable.
Starters (and the primary passer) on the game's official injury report, as of the latest report captured before kickoff.
Travel and schedule
The Broncos have 7 days between games and the 49ers 7. The Broncos travel about 928 miles, moving their body clock 1 hour back.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home stadium; time-zone change is at kickoff. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form and rest
Broncos49ersLast five results this season, oldest to newest. Against-the-spread and over–under records use the consensus closing line.
EPA rank trend
Season-to-date EPA per play rank after each week (offense: 1st = most efficient; defense: 1st = allows the least).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 2 times since 2015: the Broncos won 1 and the 49ers 1. In the most recent meeting (September 25, 2022), the Broncos won 11-10; the Broncos averaged −0.245 EPA per play; the 49ers averaged −0.303 EPA per play.
| Date | Score | Spread | Total | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2022 | 49ers 10, Broncos 11 Broncos won | 49ers -1 Broncos covered | 44 under | Broncos −0.245 · 49ers −0.303 |
| Dec 9, 2018 | Broncos 14, 49ers 20 49ers won | Broncos -3 49ers covered | 45.5 under | Broncos −0.103 · 49ers +0.053 |
The last five meetings since 2015, most recent first. Spread and total are the nflverse closing lines.
Odds and line movement
Broncos +3 (-113)
Broncos +2.5 (-102)
49ers -153 58%
49ers -145 57%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Broncos +3-115Hard Rock
- 49ers -2-116ProphetX
- Over 48-108BetMGM
- Under 47.5+108Novig
- Broncos+133Novig
- 49ers-133Polymarket
Dig deeper
Teams
Denver Broncos
- Denver Broncos team stats
- Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 (Sep 27)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 (Sep 20)
- Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 (Sep 14)
San Francisco 49ers
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