Chicago Blackhawks vs Buffalo Sabres Preview & Odds — October 3, 2026
Matchup preview
The Blackhawks visit the Sabres on Saturday, October 3 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Blackhawks scored 2.60 goals per game (31st of 32) and allowed 3.35 (27th). The Sabres scored 3.51 goals per game (5th of 32) and allowed 2.94 (7th). The Blackhawks earned 43.9% of available standings points (31st) and the Sabres 66.5% (4th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Blackhawks 43.2% (32nd), Sabres 50.5% (14th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Blackhawks 45.6% (30th), Sabres 49.3% (16th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Blackhawks 43.2% (30th), Sabres 51.7% (13th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total is 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Blackhawks +180, Sabres -220) prices the Blackhawks at 34% and the Sabres at 66%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
BlackhawksFull 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
Goaltending head-to-head
Spencer Knight has made the most starts for the Blackhawks; last season he had 55 starts, a .902 save percentage and +14.2 goals saved above expected.
- This season1 start · .889 Sv% · .833 HD Sv% · −0.6 GSAx
- Last season55 starts · .902 Sv% · .876 HD Sv% · +14.2 GSAx · 2 back-to-back starts
Starter status as reported by Daily Faceoff or the NHL before game time; teams confirm starters close to puck drop. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
5-on-5 play
| 5-on-5 | Blackhawks | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Expected-goals shareshare of 5-on-5 expected goals | 43.2%32nd | 50.5%14th |
| Expected goals for per 605-on-5 | 2.1531st | 2.6111th |
| Expected goals against per 605-on-5 | 2.8231st | 2.5520th |
| Shot-attempt share (Corsi)5-on-5 | 45.6%30th | 49.3%16th |
| High-danger chance share5-on-5 | 43.2%30th | 51.7%13th |
| Shooting %5-on-5 | 9.6%16th | 10.6%5th |
| Save %5-on-5 | 90.0%23rd | 91.4%8th |
| Paceshot attempts per 60, both teams | 109.029th | 116.015th |
| Expected-goals share, last 205-on-5 | 40.4%32nd | 53.4%9th |
At 5-on-5 the Blackhawks share of expected goals is 43.2% (32nd) and the Sabres share is 50.5% (14th).
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
Special teams
| Special teams | Blackhawks | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Power-play goals per 60per 60 power-play minutes | 6.1926th | 6.9321st |
| Power-play expected goals per 60per 60 power-play minutes | 8.0131st | 8.6426th |
| Power-play unblocked attempts per 60 | 66.931st | 76.420th |
| Power-play minutes per gametime on the man advantage | 4.715th | 5.07th |
| Penalty-kill goals allowed per 60per 60 shorthanded minutes | 5.852nd | 6.174th |
| Penalty-kill expected goals allowed per 60 | 10.0928th | 9.1916th |
| Penalty-kill minutes per gametime shorthanded | 4.819th | 4.614th |
On the power play the Blackhawks generate 8.01 expected goals per 60 minutes (31st) against a Sabres penalty kill allowing 9.19 (16th); the Sabres generate 8.64 (26th) against a Blackhawks kill allowing 10.09 (28th).
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Travel and schedule
The Blackhawks travel about 1,975 miles from home, a 3-hour time-zone change.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Recent form
BlackhawksRegular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss).
Head-to-head
The teams have met 13 times since 2018-19: the Blackhawks won 4 and the Sabres 9.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Sabres 5, Blackhawks 1 Sabres won | Sabres -212 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Blackhawks 3, Sabres 9 Sabres won | Sabres -180 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Dec 27, 2024 | Blackhawks 2, Sabres 6 Sabres won | Sabres -160 favorite won | 6 over |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Sabres 4, Blackhawks 2 Sabres won | Sabres -145 favorite won | 6 push |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Blackhawks 0, Sabres 3 Sabres won | Sabres -275 favorite won | 6 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Odds and line movement
Blackhawks +1.5 (-135)
Blackhawks +1.5 (-135)
Sabres -220 66%
Sabres -220 66%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Blackhawks +1.5-127Polymarket
- Sabres -1.5+114DraftKings
- Over 6-118BetMGM
- Under 6.5-122Polymarket
- Blackhawks+203Polymarket
- Sabres-203Kalshi
Dig deeper
Teams
Chicago Blackhawks
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Buffalo Sabres
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