Dallas Stars vs Nashville Predators Final — October 3, 2026
DALStarting goaliesNSH
DALOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)NSHDALDefenseNSHDALTeamNSHDAL5-on-5NSHDALSpecial teamsNSHDALRecent formNSHInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
DALRest & travelNSHDALKey injuriesNSHAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 3, 6:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Stars (0-1-0) visited the Predators (0-1-0) on Saturday, October 3 at 8:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Stars scored 3.40 goals per game (8th of 32) and allowed 2.76 (2nd). The Predators scored 3.01 goals per game (21st of 32) and allowed 3.28 (25th). The Stars earned 68.3% of available standings points (3rd) and the Predators 52.4% (22nd).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Stars 50.8% (13th), Predators 48.5% (22nd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Stars 47.5% (27th), Predators 50.1% (14th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Stars 55.9% (5th), Predators 49.0% (16th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed at 6.5, up from 5.5 at the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Stars -141, Predators +118) prices the Stars at 56% and the Predators at 44%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Dallas Stars 1, Nashville Predators 2
Nashville Predators won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Nashville Predators +1.5): Nashville Predators covered.
- Combined score 3 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Nashville Predators closed at +118 on the moneyline (a 44% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Nashville Predators 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 2 points toward Dallas Stars.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Dallas Stars 56%, Nashville Predators 44%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 0:47 — Dallas Stars goal (1-0)Dallas Stars 56% → 70% (+14 pts)
- 1st 4:46 — Nashville Predators goal (1-1)Nashville Predators 30% → 46% (+15 pts)
- 1st 15:49 — Nashville Predators goal (1-2)Nashville Predators 45% → 64% (+19 pts)
Nashville Predators won after falling as low as 30% (1st 3:36).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Nashville Predators won 50% of G&W replays (Dallas Stars 50%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Stars | Goals | Predators |
|---|---|---|
| 1.8 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.0 |
| 0.5 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.3 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 2.3 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.3 |
| 0.6 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.5 |
| -1.3 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -0.3 |
| +0.3 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Casey DeSmith 24/26 · Juuse Saros 29/30 | +1.3 |
How the margin was built, from Nashville Predators's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Dallas Stars closed as the market favourite at 56% and lost.
The line moved toward Dallas Stars before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Stars -1.5 (+180)
Stars -1.5 (+175)
Predators +110 46%
Predators +118 44%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 36 times since 2018-19: the Stars won 19 and the Predators 17.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Predators 2, Stars 3 OT Stars won | Stars -150 favorite won | 6 under |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Stars 5, Predators 4 Stars won | Stars -162 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Stars 3, Predators 2 Stars won | Stars -152 favorite won | 6 under |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Stars 1, Predators 5 Predators won | Stars -170 underdog won | 6.5 under |
| Apr 3, 2025 | Predators 1, Stars 5 Stars won | Stars -300 favorite won | 6.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Dallas Stars
- Dallas Stars team stats
- New Jersey Devils 5, Dallas Stars 1 (Oct 27)
- New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 6 (Oct 25)
- Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3 (Oct 22)
Nashville Predators
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