Calgary Flames vs Vancouver Canucks Final — October 3, 2026
CGYStarting goaliesVAN
CGYOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)VANCGYDefenseVANCGYTeamVANCGY5-on-5VANCGYSpecial teamsVANCGYRecent formVANInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
CGYRest & travelVANCGYKey injuriesVANAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 3, 6:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Flames (0-1-0) visited the Canucks (1-1-0) on Saturday, October 3 at 10:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Flames scored 2.59 goals per game (32nd of 32) and allowed 3.16 (21st). The Canucks scored 2.63 goals per game (30th of 32) and allowed 3.85 (32nd). The Flames earned 47.0% of available standings points (29th) and the Canucks 35.4% (32nd).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Flames 47.2% (27th), Canucks 44.1% (31st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Flames 49.2% (17th), Canucks 46.5% (29th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Flames 46.9% (23rd), Canucks 41.8% (32nd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Flames -105, Canucks -114) prices the Flames at 49% and the Canucks at 51%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Vancouver Canucks won by 3.
- Against the closing spread (Vancouver Canucks -1.5): Vancouver Canucks covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Vancouver Canucks closed at -114 on the moneyline (a 51% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Vancouver Canucks 4
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 1 point toward Vancouver Canucks.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Calgary Flames 50%, Vancouver Canucks 50%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 14:51 — Calgary Flames goal (1-0)Calgary Flames 52% → 68% (+16 pts)
- 3rd 1:28 — Vancouver Canucks goal (1-1)Vancouver Canucks 24% → 50% (+26 pts)
- 3rd 9:04 — Vancouver Canucks goal (1-2)Vancouver Canucks 50% → 82% (+32 pts)
Vancouver Canucks won after falling as low as 24% (3rd 1:28).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Vancouver Canucks won 54% of G&W replays (Calgary Flames 46%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Flames | Goals | Canucks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 1.6 |
| 0.2 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.5 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.4 |
| 2.2 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.5 |
| 0.0 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.6 |
| -1.2 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.5 |
| -0.5 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Devin Cooley 22/25 · Leevi Meriläinen 23/24 | +1.2 |
| 0 | Empty-net goals | 1 |
How the margin was built, from Vancouver Canucks's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Vancouver Canucks closed as the market favourite at 51% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Flames +1.5 (-254)
Flames +1.5 (-278)
Canucks -110 50%
Canucks -114 51%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 37 times since 2018-19: the Flames won 21 and the Canucks 16.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Canucks 3, Flames 7 Flames won | ||
| Nov 23, 2025 | Flames 5, Canucks 2 Flames won | Canucks -135 underdog won | 6 over |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Flames 1, Canucks 5 Canucks won | Canucks -197 favorite won | 5.5 over |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Canucks 4, Flames 3 SO Canucks won | Flames -135 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Canucks 1, Flames 3 Flames won | Flames -135 favorite won | 5.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Calgary Flames
- Calgary Flames team stats
- Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers (Oct 28)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Calgary Flames 5 (Oct 26)
- Detroit Red Wings 1, Calgary Flames 4 (Oct 24)
- Minnesota Wild 1, Calgary Flames 2 (Oct 22)
Vancouver Canucks
More NHL games on October 3, 2026
- Chicago Blackhawks 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (Oct 3)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (Oct 3)
- Seattle Kraken 1, Edmonton Oilers 3 (Oct 3)
- Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (Oct 3)
- Montréal Canadiens 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6 (Oct 3)
- Washington Capitals 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (Oct 3)
- Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (Oct 3)
- New Jersey Devils 0, New York Islanders 6 (Oct 3)
- Boston Bruins 1, Minnesota Wild 4 (Oct 3)
- Dallas Stars 1, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 3)
- St Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 6 (Oct 3)
- Los Angeles Kings 4, San Jose Sharks 5 (Oct 3)
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