Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Final — October 3, 2026
OTTStarting goaliesTOR
OTTOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)TOROTTDefenseTOROTTTeamTOROTT5-on-5TOROTTSpecial teamsTORInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
OTTRest & travelTOROTTKey injuriesTORAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 3, 6:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Senators visited the Maple Leafs on Saturday, October 3 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Senators scored 3.39 goals per game (9th of 32) and allowed 3.00 (11th). The Maple Leafs scored 3.09 goals per game (16th of 32) and allowed 3.65 (31st). The Senators earned 60.4% of available standings points (9th) and the Maple Leafs 47.6% (28th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Senators 54.8% (3rd), Maple Leafs 45.5% (29th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Senators 52.9% (5th), Maple Leafs 44.8% (32nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Senators 56.0% (4th), Maple Leafs 45.2% (28th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Senators -106, Maple Leafs -113) prices the Senators at 49% and the Maple Leafs at 51%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Ottawa Senators won by 1.
- Against the closing spread (Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5): Ottawa Senators covered.
- Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Ottawa Senators closed at -106 on the moneyline (a 49% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 4 points toward Ottawa Senators.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Ottawa Senators 49%, Toronto Maple Leafs 51%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 2nd 7:06 — Toronto Maple Leafs goal (1-2)Toronto Maple Leafs 53% → 72% (+19 pts)
- 2nd 12:40 — Ottawa Senators goal (2-2)Ottawa Senators 28% → 50% (+22 pts)
- 3rd 9:46 — Ottawa Senators goal (3-2)Ottawa Senators 53% → 82% (+29 pts)
Ottawa Senators won after falling as low as 28% (2nd 12:40).
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Ottawa Senators won 58% of G&W replays (Toronto Maple Leafs 42%). The chances each team created were close to even.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.
| Senators | Goals | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.8 |
| 2.0 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.6 |
| 0.4 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.2 |
| 4.4 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.6 |
| 0.0 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.2 |
| 1.0 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.7 |
| -1.4 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.9 |
| +1.9 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Linus Ullmark 27/29 · Sergei Bobrovsky 26/29 | +1.4 |
How the margin was built, from Ottawa Senators's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
The official play, graded
The official play on this game, at the price it was sent, graded against the final score.
Every official play is logged and graded, wins and losses alike. Full track record.
Line review
Toronto Maple Leafs closed as the market favourite at 51% and lost.
The line moved toward Ottawa Senators before puck drop, and they won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Senators +1.5 (-230)
Senators +1.5 (-280)
Maple Leafs -130 54%
Maple Leafs -113 51%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 35 times since 2018-19: the Senators won 18 and the Maple Leafs 17.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Maple Leafs 1, Senators 3 Senators won | Senators -200 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Maple Leafs 2, Senators 5 Senators won | Senators -310 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Senators 5, Maple Leafs 2 Senators won | Senators -134 favorite won | 6.5 over |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Senators 5, Maple Leafs 7 Maple Leafs won | Senators -132 underdog won | 6 over |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Senators 4, Maple Leafs 2 Senators won | Maple Leafs -132 underdog won | 6 push |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators team stats
- Ottawa Senators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (Oct 27)
- New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 7 (Oct 24)
- San Jose Sharks 6, Ottawa Senators 2 (Oct 22)
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs team stats
- Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken (Oct 28)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Calgary Flames 5 (Oct 26)
- Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Edmonton Oilers 2 (Oct 24)
- New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (Oct 22)
Gridiron & Wine graded a pick on this game: see the archived pick.
More NHL games on October 3, 2026
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- Utah Mammoth 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (Oct 3)
- Seattle Kraken 1, Edmonton Oilers 3 (Oct 3)
- Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (Oct 3)
- Montréal Canadiens 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6 (Oct 3)
- Washington Capitals 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (Oct 3)
- New Jersey Devils 0, New York Islanders 6 (Oct 3)
- Boston Bruins 1, Minnesota Wild 4 (Oct 3)
- Dallas Stars 1, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 3)
- St Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 6 (Oct 3)
- Los Angeles Kings 4, San Jose Sharks 5 (Oct 3)
- Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 4 (Oct 3)
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