Seattle Kraken vs Edmonton Oilers Final — October 3, 2026
SEAStarting goaliesEDM
SEAOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)EDMSEADefenseEDMSEATeamEDMSEA5-on-5EDMSEASpecial teamsEDMSEARecent formEDMInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
SEARest & travelEDMSEAKey injuriesEDMAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Key players only. Injury report as of October 3, 6:40 a.m. ET.
The pre-game matchup
The Kraken (1-0-0) visited the Oilers (1-0-1) on Saturday, October 3 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Kraken scored 2.76 goals per game (28th of 32) and allowed 3.21 (23rd). The Oilers scored 3.44 goals per game (7th of 32) and allowed 3.28 (25th). The Kraken earned 48.2% of available standings points (27th) and the Oilers 56.7% (14th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Kraken 45.4% (30th), Oilers 51.7% (9th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Kraken 45.4% (31st), Oilers 50.3% (12th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Kraken 46.1% (25th), Oilers 51.0% (14th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Kraken +170, Oilers -205) prices the Kraken at 36% and the Oilers at 64%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Seattle Kraken 1, Edmonton Oilers 3
Edmonton Oilers won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (Edmonton Oilers -1.5): Edmonton Oilers covered.
- Combined score 4 vs the closing total of 6.5: Under.
- Edmonton Oilers closed at -205 on the moneyline (a 64% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Edmonton Oilers 3
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Seattle Kraken.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Seattle Kraken 36%, Edmonton Oilers 64%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 2:51 — Edmonton Oilers goal (0-1)Edmonton Oilers 64% → 78% (+13 pts)
- 2nd 9:06 — Seattle Kraken goal (1-1)Seattle Kraken 21% → 41% (+20 pts)
- 3rd 17:33 — Edmonton Oilers goal (1-2)Edmonton Oilers 55% → 94% (+39 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Edmonton Oilers won 71% of G&W replays (Seattle Kraken 29%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Edmonton Oilers. Here is where that came from.
| Kraken | Goals | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.2 |
| 0.4 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 1.0 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.1 |
| 1.9 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 3.3 |
| 0.3 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.2 |
| -0.9 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | -1.4 |
| +1.4 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Philipp Grubauer 22/24 · Devon Levi 19/20 | +0.9 |
| 0 | Empty-net goals | 1 |
How the margin was built, from Edmonton Oilers's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Edmonton Oilers closed as the market favourite at 64% and won.
The line moved toward Seattle Kraken before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Kraken +1.5 (-120)
Kraken +1.5 (-145)
Oilers -236 67%
Oilers -205 64%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 19 times since 2018-19: the Kraken won 4 and the Oilers 15.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Kraken 0, Oilers 3 Oilers won | ||
| Dec 4, 2025 | Kraken 4, Oilers 9 Oilers won | Oilers -198 favorite won | 6 over |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Oilers 4, Kraken 0 Oilers won | Oilers -155 favorite won | 6 under |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Oilers 2, Kraken 3 Kraken won | Oilers -176 underdog won | 6 under |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Oilers 1, Kraken 6 Kraken won | Oilers -120 underdog won | 6 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Seattle Kraken
- Seattle Kraken team stats
- Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken (Oct 28)
- Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 1 (Oct 24)
- Utah Mammoth 3, Seattle Kraken 5 (Oct 22)
- Detroit Red Wings 3, Seattle Kraken 4 (Oct 20)
Edmonton Oilers
More NHL games on October 3, 2026
- Chicago Blackhawks 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (Oct 3)
- Utah Mammoth 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (Oct 3)
- Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (Oct 3)
- Montréal Canadiens 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6 (Oct 3)
- Washington Capitals 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (Oct 3)
- Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (Oct 3)
- New Jersey Devils 0, New York Islanders 6 (Oct 3)
- Boston Bruins 1, Minnesota Wild 4 (Oct 3)
- Dallas Stars 1, Nashville Predators 2 (Oct 3)
- St Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 6 (Oct 3)
- Los Angeles Kings 4, San Jose Sharks 5 (Oct 3)
- Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 4 (Oct 3)
Dig deeper
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