Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning Preview & Odds — October 3, 2026
Matchup preview
The Capitals visit the Lightning on Saturday, October 3 at 7:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Capitals scored 3.21 goals per game (15th of 32) and allowed 2.98 (10th). The Lightning scored 3.54 goals per game (4th of 32) and allowed 2.82 (3rd). The Capitals earned 57.9% of available standings points (12th) and the Lightning 64.6% (5th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Capitals 50.0% (17th), Lightning 54.2% (5th). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Capitals 49.4% (15th), Lightning 53.3% (3rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Capitals 46.9% (22nd), Lightning 57.9% (2nd). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total is 6.5. After removing the vig, the moneyline (Capitals +122, Lightning -146) prices the Capitals at 43% and the Lightning at 57%.
Built from public team and player data; ranks are league-wide and update daily until kickoff.
Tale of the tape
CapitalsFull 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
5-on-5 play
| 5-on-5 | Capitals | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Expected-goals shareshare of 5-on-5 expected goals | 50.0%17th | 54.2%5th |
| Expected goals for per 605-on-5 | 2.717th | 2.735th |
| Expected goals against per 605-on-5 | 2.7126th | 2.305th |
| Shot-attempt share (Corsi)5-on-5 | 49.4%15th | 53.3%3rd |
| High-danger chance share5-on-5 | 46.9%22nd | 57.9%2nd |
| Shooting %5-on-5 | 10.2%9th | 11.1%3rd |
| Save %5-on-5 | 91.6%6th | 90.8%12th |
| Paceshot attempts per 60, both teams | 118.27th | 111.826th |
| Expected-goals share, last 205-on-5 | 48.2%21st | 53.0%11th |
At 5-on-5 the Capitals share of expected goals is 50.0% (17th) and the Lightning share is 54.2% (5th).
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
Special teams
| Special teams | Capitals | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Power-play goals per 60per 60 power-play minutes | 6.3125th | 7.5116th |
| Power-play expected goals per 60per 60 power-play minutes | 9.2415th | 9.2913th |
| Power-play unblocked attempts per 60 | 78.315th | 75.722nd |
| Power-play minutes per gametime on the man advantage | 4.99th | 4.810th |
| Penalty-kill goals allowed per 60per 60 shorthanded minutes | 7.3115th | 6.103rd |
| Penalty-kill expected goals allowed per 60 | 9.9424th | 8.9911th |
| Penalty-kill minutes per gametime shorthanded | 5.025th | 5.129th |
On the power play the Capitals generate 9.24 expected goals per 60 minutes (15th) against a Lightning penalty kill allowing 8.99 (11th); the Lightning generate 9.29 (13th) against a Capitals kill allowing 9.94 (24th).
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Head-to-head
The teams have met 21 times since 2018-19: the Capitals won 10 and the Lightning 11.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Lightning 5, Capitals 3 Lightning won | Capitals -125 underdog won | 6.5 over |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Capitals 2, Lightning 3 Lightning won | Lightning -150 favorite won | 6 under |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Lightning 2, Capitals 3 OT Capitals won | Lightning -114 underdog won | 5.5 under |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Lightning 3, Capitals 1 Lightning won | Lightning -115 favorite won | 6.5 under |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Capitals 5, Lightning 4 Capitals won | Lightning -162 underdog won | 6.5 over |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Odds and line movement
Capitals +1.5 (-205)
Lightning -146 57%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. The Now column updates from our odds board. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Best available prices on Oct 2
- Over 6-110Caesars
- Under 6.5-135DraftKings
- Capitals+127Polymarket
- Lightning-133Polymarket
Dig deeper
Teams
Washington Capitals
- Washington Capitals team stats
- Washington Capitals pick history
- Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes (Oct 2)
Tampa Bay Lightning
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