St Louis Blues vs Colorado Avalanche Final — October 3, 2026
STLStarting goaliesCOL
STLOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)COLSTLDefenseCOLSTLTeamCOLSTL5-on-5COLSTLSpecial teamsCOLSTLRecent formCOLInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
STLRest & travelCOLSTLKey injuriesCOLAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Injury report as of October 3, 6:40 a.m. ET: no key players listed for either team.
The pre-game matchup
The Blues (1-0-0) visited the Avalanche (1-0-0) on Saturday, October 3 at 9:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Blues scored 2.82 goals per game (25th of 32) and allowed 3.15 (19th). The Avalanche scored 3.68 goals per game (1st of 32) and allowed 2.48 (1st). The Blues earned 52.4% of available standings points (22nd) and the Avalanche 73.8% (1st).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Blues 49.5% (19th), Avalanche 56.6% (1st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Blues 48.2% (25th), Avalanche 56.7% (2nd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Blues 45.4% (27th), Avalanche 54.8% (6th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Blues +240, Avalanche -298) prices the Blues at 28% and the Avalanche at 72%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
St Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 6
Colorado Avalanche won by 5.
- Against the closing spread (Colorado Avalanche -1.5): Colorado Avalanche covered.
- Combined score 7 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
- Colorado Avalanche closed at -298 on the moneyline (a 72% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
Colorado Avalanche 6
Before the game: market and G&W
The market barely moved from open to close.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (St Louis Blues 28%, Colorado Avalanche 72%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 4:09 — Colorado Avalanche goal (0-1)Colorado Avalanche 71% → 83% (+12 pts)
- 1st 13:12 — Colorado Avalanche goal (0-2)Colorado Avalanche 83% → 92% (+9 pts)
- 2nd 5:38 — Colorado Avalanche goal (0-3)Colorado Avalanche 93% → 98% (+5 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Colorado Avalanche won 80% of G&W replays (St Louis Blues 20%). The result went to the side that created the better chances.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Colorado Avalanche. Here is where that came from.
| Blues | Goals | Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 3.3 |
| 0.2 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.7 |
| 0.0 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 1.7 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 4.0 |
| 0.3 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.8 |
| -0.7 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +2.0 |
| -2.0 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Jordan Binnington 30/36 · Mackenzie Blackwood 25/26 | +0.7 |
How the margin was built, from Colorado Avalanche's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
Colorado Avalanche closed as the market favourite at 72% and won.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Blues +1.5 (-105)
Blues +1.5 (-105)
Avalanche -295 71%
Avalanche -298 72%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 34 times since 2018-19: the Blues won 16 and the Avalanche 18.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2026 | Avalanche 3, Blues 1 Avalanche won | Avalanche -158 favorite won | 6 under |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Blues 3, Avalanche 2 Blues won | ||
| Dec 31, 2025 | Blues 1, Avalanche 6 Avalanche won | Avalanche -375 favorite won | 6 over |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Avalanche 4, Blues 5 Blues won | Avalanche -137 underdog won | 5.5 over |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Blues 2, Avalanche 1 Blues won | Avalanche -205 underdog won | 5.5 under |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
St Louis Blues
- St Louis Blues team stats
- Montréal Canadiens 2, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 27)
- Carolina Hurricanes 4, St Louis Blues 0 (Oct 24)
- Vegas Golden Knights 2, St Louis Blues 6 (Oct 22)
Colorado Avalanche
More NHL games on October 3, 2026
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- Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (Oct 3)
- Montréal Canadiens 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6 (Oct 3)
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- Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (Oct 3)
- New Jersey Devils 0, New York Islanders 6 (Oct 3)
- Boston Bruins 1, Minnesota Wild 4 (Oct 3)
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- Los Angeles Kings 4, San Jose Sharks 5 (Oct 3)
- Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 4 (Oct 3)
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