Utah Mammoth vs New York Rangers Final — October 4, 2026
UTAHStarting goaliesNYR
UTAHOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)NYRUTAHDefenseNYRUTAHTeamNYRUTAH5-on-5NYRUTAHSpecial teamsNYRUTAHRecent formNYRInjuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
UTAHRest & travelNYRUTAHKey injuriesNYRAbout these numbers
Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.
Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.
2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.
2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.
Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.
Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.
No key players listed.
Injury report as of October 4, 9:40 a.m. ET: no key players listed for either team.
The pre-game matchup
The Mammoth (2-0-0) visited the Rangers (2-1-0) on Sunday, October 4 at 6:10 PM ET.
Last season (2025-26), the Mammoth scored 3.27 goals per game (13th of 32) and allowed 2.93 (4th). The Rangers scored 2.90 goals per game (23rd of 32) and allowed 3.05 (13th). The Mammoth earned 56.1% of available standings points (15th) and the Rangers 47.0% (29th).
Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Mammoth 53.4% (6th), Rangers 48.4% (23rd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Mammoth 53.1% (4th), Rangers 48.9% (20th). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Mammoth 53.0% (11th), Rangers 49.0% (17th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.
The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Mammoth +100, Rangers -120) prices the Mammoth at 48% and the Rangers at 52%.
Written from the numbers available before kickoff.
Result
Final score and result vs the closing line
Utah Mammoth 2, New York Rangers 4
New York Rangers won by 2.
- Against the closing spread (New York Rangers -1.5): New York Rangers covered.
- Combined score 6 vs the closing total of 5.5: Over.
- New York Rangers closed at -120 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).
Actual result
New York Rangers 4
Before the game: market and G&W
From open to close the market moved 3 points toward Utah Mammoth.
Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.
Win probability
Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Utah Mammoth 48%, New York Rangers 52%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.
Biggest swings
- 1st 17:18 — New York Rangers goal (0-1)New York Rangers 52% → 69% (+17 pts)
- 2nd 14:29 — Utah Mammoth goal (1-1)Utah Mammoth 29% → 52% (+23 pts)
- 3rd 3:15 — New York Rangers goal (1-2)New York Rangers 51% → 78% (+27 pts)
Chance Quality Result
Based on the quality of chances each team created, Utah Mammoth won 64% of G&W replays (New York Rangers 36%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.
The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.
Game DNA
The Chance Quality Result above favoured Utah Mammoth. Here is where that came from.
| Mammoth | Goals | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | 5-on-5 chancesexpected goals | 2.2 |
| 0.7 | Power-play chancesexpected goals | 0.6 |
| 0.1 | Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed | 0.0 |
| 4.0 | Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result | 2.8 |
| 0.1 | Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result | 0.0 |
| 0.8 | Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above | 0.1 |
| -2.0 | Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots | +0.2 |
| -0.2 | Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Karel Vejmelka 18/21 · Igor Shesterkin 28/30 | +2.0 |
| 0 | Empty-net goals | 1 |
How the margin was built, from New York Rangers's side:
The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.
Line review
New York Rangers closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.
The line moved toward Utah Mammoth before puck drop, and they lost.
Market
Closing line and line movement
Mammoth +1.5 (-232)
Mammoth +1.5 (-274)
Rangers -134 55%
Rangers -120 52%
Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.
Members
G&W Line
G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics
Matchup
Head-to-head
The teams have met 13 times since 2018-19: the Mammoth won 6 and the Rangers 7.
| Date | Score | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | Mammoth 3, Rangers 2 OT Mammoth won | 5.5 under | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Rangers 2, Mammoth 3 Mammoth won | Mammoth -132 favorite won | 6 under |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Rangers 5, Mammoth 3 Rangers won | ||
| Oct 12, 2024 | Mammoth 6, Rangers 5 OT Mammoth won | ||
| Mar 30, 2024 | Rangers 8, Mammoth 5 Rangers won |
Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.
Teams
Utah Mammoth
- Utah Mammoth team stats
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New York Rangers
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