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NHL · October 24, 2026

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Utah Mammoth Final — October 24, 2026

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-0

Goalie Dennis Hildeby Likely

FINAL

Utah Mammoth

7-4-0

Goalie Karel Vejmelka Expected

Saturday, October 24 · 8:10 PM ET

TBStarting goaliesUTAH

This season

Starts

.920

Sv%

.872

1.000

HDSv%

.773

+1.0

GSAx

−4.6

Last season

Starts

.914

Sv%

.897

.895

HDSv%

.806

+8.8

GSAx

+6.1

TBOffense2026-27 regular season to dateUTAH

10th3.40

GF/G

3.737th

27th5.00

PP GF/60

15.301st

TBDefenseUTAH

8th2.90

GA/G

3.2720th

21st8.02

PK GA/60

15.7632nd

TBTeamUTAH

4th70.0%

Pts%

63.6%8th

4th56.1%

xGF%

61.1%2nd

5th56.4%

CF%

57.0%3rd

12th52.8%

HDCF%

71.4%2nd

TB5-on-5UTAH

4th2.90

xGF/60

3.152nd

9th2.27

xGA/60

2.013rd

8th10.8%

Sh%

9.2%17th

21st89.6%

Sv%

89.2%22nd

11th114.4

CF/60 (both)

117.66th

15th−0.10

GAx/G

+0.0512th

17th−0.10

GSAx/G

−0.7230th

17th10.3%

Sh%

11.9%11th

17th89.1%

Sv%

86.1%32nd

TBSpecial teamsUTAH

16th7.12

PP xG/60

9.944th

18th68.0

PP FF/60

89.83rd

4th6.0

PP min/G

5.39th

5th6.21

PK xGA/60

7.4115th

7th4.5

PK min/G

4.23rd

TBRecent formUTAH

L@ NYR 1-4Wvs SEA 4-3Wvs VAN 4-2W@ VGK 6-2L@ COL 3-6

Resultsoldest to newest

Wvs TOR 5-4W@ EDM 4-2Lvs EDM 2-6Wvs PIT 5-4L@ SEA 3-5

Game by game

7-3-0

Record

7-4-0

3-2-0

Last 5

3-2-0

7-3-0

Last 10

6-4-0

5-5

Over–under

7-4

TBHome and roadseason to dateUTAH

5-0-0

Home record

3-1-0

2-3-0

Road record

4-3-0

1-4

Home O/U

3-1

4-1

Road O/U

4-3

Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)

Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel

TBRest & travelUTAH

1 dayback-to-back

Days of rest

2 days

370 mi596 km

Travel to the game

Home

TBKey injuriesUTAH

Yanni Gourde CIR

Players out or limited

John Marino DDay-to-day

About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

2026-27 regular season to date, captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2026-27 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2026-27 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 24, 12:40 p.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Lightning (7-3-0) visited the Mammoth (7-4-0) on Saturday, October 24 at 8:10 PM ET.

The Lightning score 3.40 goals per game (10th of 32) and allow 2.90 (8th). The Mammoth score 3.73 goals per game (7th of 32) and allow 3.27 (20th). The Lightning earn 70.0% of available standings points (4th) and the Mammoth 63.6% (8th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Lightning 56.1% (4th), Mammoth 61.1% (2nd). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Lightning 56.4% (5th), Mammoth 57.0% (3rd). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Lightning 52.8% (12th), Mammoth 71.4% (2nd).

The total closed 6.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Lightning +121, Mammoth -145) prices the Lightning at 43% and the Mammoth at 57%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Utah Mammoth 5

Utah Mammoth won by 1.

Against the closing spread (Utah Mammoth -1.5): Tampa Bay Lightning covered.
Combined score 9 vs the closing total of 6.5: Over.
Utah Mammoth closed at -145 on the moneyline (a 57% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final

Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Utah Mammoth 5

Decided

In overtime

Utah Mammoth won

Lead changes

Before the game: market and G&W

43%Market at the close57%

Tampa Bay LightningUtah Mammoth

44%Market at the open56%

The market barely moved from open to close.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Tampa Bay Lightning 43%, Utah Mammoth 57%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

Biggest swings

2nd 5:32 — Tampa Bay Lightning goal (4-2)Tampa Bay Lightning 65% → 81% (+16 pts)
2nd 17:02 — Utah Mammoth goal (4-4)Utah Mammoth 30% → 54% (+24 pts)
OT 1:44 — Utah Mammoth goal (4-5)Utah Mammoth 52% → 100% (+48 pts)

Utah Mammoth won after falling as low as 15% (2nd 14:13).

Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

54%TBL

Share of G&W replays won

46%UTA

3.5

Expected goals

3.2

Final score

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Tampa Bay Lightning won 54% of G&W replays (Utah Mammoth 46%). The chances each team created were close to even.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above had the chances close to even. Here is where each side gained and lost.

Lightning	Goals	Mammoth
2.1	5-on-5 chancesexpected goals	2.5
1.4	Power-play chancesexpected goals	0.5
0.0	Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed	0.2
3.5	Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result	3.2
0.2	Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result	0.3
0.5	Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above	0.9
+0.3	Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots	+1.5
-1.5	Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Dennis Hildeby 23/28 · Karel Vejmelka 29/33	-0.3

Bar left: Lightning gainedBar right: Mammoth gained

How the margin was built, from Utah Mammoth's side:

Chances -0.2Finishing & goaltending +1.2Utah Mammoth by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Utah Mammoth closed as the market favourite at 57% and won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck lineno move

OpenMammoth -1.5 (+160)
Lightning +1.5 (-192)

CloseMammoth -1.5 (+164)
Lightning +1.5 (-202)

Totalno move

Open6.5 (o -110 / u -110)

Close6.5 (o -115 / u -105)

Moneyline

OpenLightning +120 44%
Mammoth -143 56%

CloseLightning +121 43%
Mammoth -145 57%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score

Spread

Total

Win %

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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Lightning won 9 and the Mammoth 5.

Date	Score	Line	Total
Jan 26, 2026	Mammoth 0, Lightning 2 Lightning won	Lightning -155 favorite won	6 under
Nov 2, 2025	Lightning 4, Mammoth 2 Lightning won	Mammoth -118 underdog won	6.5 under
Mar 27, 2025	Mammoth 0, Lightning 8 Lightning won
Mar 22, 2025	Lightning 4, Mammoth 6 Mammoth won
Jan 25, 2024	Mammoth 3, Lightning 6 Lightning won

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams