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NHL · October 4, 2026

Winnipeg Jets vs Detroit Red Wings Final — October 4, 2026

Winnipeg Jets logo
Winnipeg Jets
0-0-1
3
Goalie Clay Stevenson Likely
FINAL
Detroit Red Wings logo
Detroit Red Wings
0-1-0
2
Goalie John Gibson Likely
Sunday, October 4 · 1:10 PM ET
WPGStarting goaliesDET
This season
—
Starts
1
—
Sv%
.950
—
HDSv%
1.000
—
GSAx
+0.9
Last season
4
Starts
57
.921
Sv%
.901
.923
HDSv%
.824
+3.7
GSAx
+8.8
WPGOffenseFull 2025-26 regular season (last season)DET
25th2.82
GF/G
2.9422nd
23rd6.48
PP GF/60
8.1713th
WPGDefenseDET
22nd3.17
GA/G
3.1519th
20th7.98
PK GA/60
8.5727th
WPGTeamDET
26th50.0%
Pts%
56.1%15th
25th47.5%
xGF%
48.6%21st
22nd48.8%
CF%
48.8%21st
29th44.6%
HDCF%
48.5%19th
WPG5-on-5DET
27th2.29
xGF/60
2.4621st
18th2.54
xGA/60
2.6022nd
20th9.3%
Sh%
8.1%30th
16th90.5%
Sv%
90.5%17th
27th111.3
CF/60 (both)
118.26th
19th−0.05
GAx/G
−0.3131st
21st−0.09
GSAx/G
−0.0317th
20th10.1%
Sh%
9.5%29th
21st89.3%
Sv%
89.5%17th
26th46.4%
xGF% (L20)
47.6%23rd
WPGSpecial teamsDET
29th7.01
PP xG/60
8.635th
29th70.2
PP FF/60
82.98th
17th4.7
PP min/G
4.98th
9th7.32
PK xGA/60
7.5215th
10th4.5
PK min/G
4.13rd
WPGRecent formDET
OTLvs BOS 3-4
Resultsoldest to newest
Lvs NYR 0-2
0-0-1
Record
0-1-0
Top third of the leagueMiddle thirdBottom thirdBar = league rank (full = 1st)
Injuries & restkey injuries · rest and travel
WPGRest & travelDET
2 days
Days of rest
2 days
851 mi1,369 km
Travel to the game
Home
+1 hclock change vs home
Time-zone change
Home
WPGKey injuriesDET
Connor Hellebuyck GIR
Players out or limited
Simon Edvinsson DOutDylan Larkin CIR
About these numbers

Goalie status from the G&W goalie tracker (Confirmed, Expected, Likely or Not confirmed); teams confirm starters close to puck drop. Season lines come from the NHL Lab goalie tables. GSAx = goals saved above expected (Gridiron & Wine expected goals). HD Sv% = save rate on high-danger shots.

Full 2025-26 regular season (last season), captured before kickoff. League rank in small type (32 teams); the gold side ranks higher. Bars show rank, longest = 1st. Source: Gridiron & Wine public Analytics tables.

2025-26 regular season, public NHL Lab tables; ranks out of 32 teams. Expected goals are Gridiron & Wine's own expected-goals numbers.

2025-26 regular season. Rates are per 60 minutes of power-play or penalty-kill time.

Regular-season results this season, oldest to newest (OTL = overtime or shootout loss). Records are season to date, with home and road splits. Over–under uses the consensus closing total.

Distance is straight-line from each team's home arena; time-zone change is at game time. Rest counts days since each team's previous game.

Key players only. Injury report as of October 4, 9:40 a.m. ET.

The pre-game matchup

The Jets (0-0-1) visited the Red Wings (0-1-0) on Sunday, October 4 at 1:10 PM ET.

Last season (2025-26), the Jets scored 2.82 goals per game (25th of 32) and allowed 3.17 (22nd). The Red Wings scored 2.94 goals per game (22nd of 32) and allowed 3.15 (19th). The Jets earned 50.0% of available standings points (26th) and the Red Wings 56.1% (15th).

Expected-goals share (5-on-5), the share of 5-on-5 expected goals created: Jets 47.5% (25th), Red Wings 48.6% (21st). Shot-attempt share (5-on-5), the share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts: Jets 48.8% (22nd), Red Wings 48.8% (21st). High-danger chance share, the share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: Jets 44.6% (29th), Red Wings 48.5% (19th). These are last season's full-season numbers because the new season's sample is still small; rosters change over the offseason.

The total closed 5.5, unchanged from the open. After removing the vig, the closing moneyline (Jets -120, Red Wings -102) prices the Jets at 52% and the Red Wings at 48%.

Written from the numbers available before kickoff.

Result

Final score and result vs the closing line

Winnipeg Jets 3, Detroit Red Wings 2

Winnipeg Jets won by 1.

  • Against the closing spread (Detroit Red Wings +1.5): Detroit Red Wings covered.
  • Combined score 5 vs the closing total of 5.5: Under.
  • Winnipeg Jets closed at -120 on the moneyline (a 52% no-vig market-implied chance).

Actual result

Final
Winnipeg Jets 3
Detroit Red Wings 2
Decided
In regulation
Winnipeg Jets won
Lead changes
0

Before the game: market and G&W

52%Market at the close48%
Winnipeg JetsDetroit Red Wings
47%Market at the open53%

From open to close the market moved 5 points toward Winnipeg Jets.

The G&W pregame win probability for this game is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market numbers are the consensus moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed.

Win probability

Each team's chance of winning through the game, starting from the market's closing price (Winnipeg Jets 52%, Detroit Red Wings 48%) and moving with every goal, penalty and the clock until the final.

100%75%50%75%100%1st2nd3rdOTMarket start11st 13:04: Winnipeg Jets 53% to 73%21st 14:36: Winnipeg Jets 69% to 84%33rd 4:56: Detroit Red Wings 7% to 21%■ Red Wings■ Jets
 

Biggest swings

  1. 1st 13:04 — Winnipeg Jets goal (1-0)Winnipeg Jets 53% → 73% (+19 pts)
  2. 1st 14:36 — Winnipeg Jets goal (2-0)Winnipeg Jets 69% → 84% (+15 pts)
  3. 3rd 4:56 — Detroit Red Wings goal (3-2)Detroit Red Wings 7% → 21% (+14 pts)
Analytics members also see this chart starting from the G&W pregame win probability. See plans

Chance Quality Result

39%WPG
Share of G&W replays won
61%DET
2.8
Expected goals
3.8
3
Final score
2

Based on the quality of chances each team created, Detroit Red Wings won 61% of G&W replays (Winnipeg Jets 39%). The result went the other way from the chances each team created.

The Chance Quality Result describes the chances each team created. It is not the official result and never changes it or any record. Expected goals count regulation chances with both goalies in net; empty-net goals are not included. Season xG tables count every game state, empty nets included, so their totals differ.

Game DNA

The Chance Quality Result above favoured Detroit Red Wings. Here is where that came from.

JetsGoalsRed Wings
1.75-on-5 chancesexpected goals
2.7
0.9Power-play chancesexpected goals
1.1
0.2Other situations4-on-4, 3-on-3, short-handed
0.0
2.8Chance Quality Result chancesthe three rows above, as in the result
3.8
0.0Overtime and pulled-goalie chancesnot part of the Chance Quality Result
0.4
0.6Second chancesrebounds and flurries, part of the above
0.6
+0.2Finishinggoals vs expected on own shots
-2.2
+2.2Goaltendingsaves vs expected · Stuart Skinner 33/35 · John Gibson 24/27
-0.2
Bar left: Jets gainedBar right: Red Wings gained

How the margin was built, from Winnipeg Jets's side:

Chances -1.4Finishing & goaltending +2.4Winnipeg Jets by 1

The first three rows add up to the Chance Quality Result's expected goals. Overtime chances and chances with a goalie pulled are listed on their own, and empty-net goals are not in expected goals. A team's finishing and the other team's goaltending are the same goals seen from each end.

Line review

Winnipeg Jets closed as the market favourite at 52% and won.

The line moved toward Winnipeg Jets before puck drop, and they won.

How the G&W pregame number compared with the close, and whether the line moved toward it, is available to Analytics members. See plans

Market

Closing line and line movement

Puck linefavorite flipped
OpenRed Wings -1.5 (+187)
Jets +1.5 (-232)
CloseRed Wings +1.5 (-265)
Jets -1.5 (+210)
Totalno move
Open5.5 (o -125 / u +105)
Close5.5 (o -123 / u +103)
Moneyline
OpenJets +105 47%
Red Wings -125 53%
CloseJets -120 52%
Red Wings -102 48%

Consensus of US sportsbooks. Open = first line after both teams' previous games; Close = consensus at kickoff. Percentages are the moneyline's no-vig market-implied chances.

Members

G&W Line

G&W’s own number for this game, next to the market. Analytics

Projected score
Spread
Total
Win %
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Matchup

Head-to-head

The teams have met 14 times since 2018-19: the Jets won 8 and the Red Wings 6.

DateScoreLineTotal
Jan 24, 2026Red Wings 5, Jets 1
Red Wings won		Jets -125
underdog won		6
push
Dec 31, 2025Jets 1, Red Wings 2
Red Wings won		Jets -121
underdog won		6
under
Jan 4, 2025Red Wings 4, Jets 2
Red Wings won		Jets -210
underdog won		5.5
over
Oct 30, 2024Jets 6, Red Wings 2
Jets won		Jets -169
favorite won		6
over
Dec 20, 2023Red Wings 2, Jets 5
Jets won		Jets -152
favorite won		6.5
over

Regular-season meetings since 2018-19, most recent first. Line = consensus closing moneyline favorite and total where line history is available.

Teams

Winnipeg Jets

Detroit Red Wings

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